Yes, the south coast up to now has been far more at risk than than the north coast in general and the Samana Peninsula in particular. But as I keep stressing, there are no guarantees.
The biggest potential problem for north coast residents are the high tides and big waves generated by the storm. People in low lying coastal areas, such as the native casitas along the shore in Nagua, are likely to driven out of their homes by the water.
For many, many years the good people of Samana believed that they were protected from hurricanes by the terrain and by the practice there of gathering in the churches to pray when there is danger of a hurricane. And it certainly seemed that way. Then Hortense shocked everyone by bouncing off the southwest corner of Puerto Rico and coming up the Mona Passage to Samana, something that had never happened before. Then during the 1997-1999 hurricane seasons when we were down in Trinidad and Venezuela, another hurricane hit Samana. In both cases, fortunately, the storms were not major ones so no great property damage done by the wind, except for the loss of a great number of coconut palms and other crops, and the casitas swept off the steep hillsides by mudslides caused by the rain. But it is now known that hurricanes can come to Samana.
It is important that people living along the north coast not believe they are immune to hurricanes. Sure, the odds are very low, but it is impossible to know what a hurricane will do. Over the years that I have tracked them, I have seen some amazing twists and turns. Hortense, for example, that did come to Samana, spent a long time going forward and back along the south coast of Puerto Rico. Once, in fact, it appeared to be dead, then came to life again. Then when it started moving again, aimed at the southeast corner of the DR, it changed course and came up the Mona Passage, something most people in either the DR or PR would have said would never happen.
People reading this who are thinking about coming to the DR during hurricane season, whether it be to the north or south coast, should not be alarmed. Chances of their resort being in the path of a hurricane is very, very small, there is plenty of advance notice, and the resorts are prepared to deal with the situation. What they are most likely to experience is a day or two of heavy rain, which is bad for the beach, but good weather for the all-inclusive bars.