My personal view on fuel: For cooking there are three methods based on social stratification: 1. "recho gas" Propane stove. This is the most expensive. I suspect that a numerical majority in the nation do not have "recho gas." 2. The next is "recho chabon." This method is likely the most common. It does not require gas but it is possible that the price of "chabon" could rise based on rising fuel costs. 3. The third represents the lowest stratification and will be found in rural areas and, even there, an outlier. That is "twa woch ak moso bwa." or three rocks with pieces of wood. Any market will sell a small bundle of "ti moso" that you can use as kindling. Generally three largish tree limbs are used. You push them in or pull them out in order to adjust the intensity of the flame. So I think that as far as the fuel shortage is concerned that it is not going to have a big effect on cooking. Those who are cooking with gas have the most money, and those who aren't will not be affected except possibly for those using "recho chabon." Probably those cooking over wood fire will not be affected at all. Now the question of transportation, that is the ELEPHANT in the room. These are the types of transport: a. motorcycles, b. tap-taps, c. various bus types, the ubiquitous "guagua," d. "machine" often but not always a big truck. I only have experience with the motorcycles. Almost every male in Haiti with a motorcycle has a dual function: personal transportation and employment. You can ask "Gen moto?" and flag down anyone. In cities and villages you do not negotiate because all the prices are set. For example, in Wanament, you pay 25 goud for short distances and 50 goud for long distances. Essentially, within the city, you always pay 25 goud (per person). If you get on with a friend you pay 50. The profit margin for the owner is razor thin. If the price goes up only a small amount, he has no profit, a little more, he cannot work; no food. If there is a shortage, then all rely on the next tier. The next tier are "ti machan" small merchants selling gas on the roadside. It is expensive and sometimes, not often, adulterated with water. When that runs out, very quickly, then tens of thousands of males with motorcycles do not eat. It does not take many days of not eating to lead to desperation and desperate acts. I was in
Wanament about a month ago on the very day when the single gas station (Estasyon Gas Nasyonal) closed down. That same day, all motorcycle fees doubled.