Shortage of US Dollars in DR?

A

AlterEgo

Guest
computer translation:

Dollar shortage persists

Posted on:
September 25, 2019
By EMILIO ORTIZ Economía@elnacioal.com.do
e-mail:redaccion [@] elnacional.com.do

The president of the Dominican Federation of Merchants (FDC) confirmed today that there is a shortage of dollars in the market that is affecting that sector, since at the beginning of last week operations were made to purchase the currency at 52.50 pesos, but At the end of the week, the purchase of a dollar had risen to 53.00 pesos.

Iván de Jesús García said the 100 million dollar injection into the market did not impact the upward trend, so he called on the Central Bank to place between 200 and 300 million dollars in the market to face the upside.

Similarly, he asked the regulatory body to replicate the experience of the past year, when before an upward movement of the exchange rate, he called that entity to a meeting, in which also the organizations of importers affiliated to it participated, in the that the channeling of dollars to that sector was planned.

"The Central Bank did not sell us dollars, but served as a channel for commercial banks to sell the currency to merchants according to their needs," he said in conversation with El Nacional.

The commercial leader said that in 30 days the exchange rate increased between 65 to 135 points.

He recalled that previously financial intermediaries sold up to 10 thousand dollars a day per person, so that companies sent five employees to these entities, so that with staggered purchases they could accumulate the necessary foreign currency to finance their operations.

However, he said that this quota was reduced to one thousand dollars a day per person, so to accumulate 15 thousand dollars necessary for the payment of an invoice, “you must mobilize 15 employees which causes an economic and time disorder in the activities of the companies".

De Jesús García said that there is a case of merchants who acquired merchandise with an exchange rate of 52 dollars, but now to replenish inventory they must pay it above 53 dollars, a situation that in his opinion “will cause a transfer of that difference to final cost impacting price levels. ”

He believed that if an escalation in the rise in prices of products of wide consumption was unleashed, inflation targets set by the authorities could be compromised.

Hence their call to the Central Bank to convene them to address the issue of shortage of dollars.

ONE POINT:

Strategy
The Central Bank had announced a strategy that began on Monday, September 16, to place more than US $ 100.0 million in the market, in coordination with commercial banks, taking into account its reserves of US $ 7,700 million


https://elnacional.com.do/denuncian-persiste-escasez-de-dolares/
 
P

playacaribe2

Guest
The Banco Central has been steadily weakening the peso, leading to more people hoarding dollars in recognition of that weakness.

Lower rates have the effect of weakening a currency.....which explains the peso falling quicker than normal the last few months.

Banco Central lowered its monetary policy rates on June 30, July 31 and August 31st.....going from 5.5% to 4.5%. That may not significantly affect the average consumer, but to commercial buyers the hit is significant........and as such they tend to hoard dollars understanding they will have more future value in dollars than pesos.

https://www.bancentral.gov.do/

There is likely not a real shortage of dollars............just a reluctancy for business to part with them as the peso has devalued so rapidly.

Let's see if they hold the rate steady on September 30th.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
D

DR Solar

Guest
Been here and done that before. When it hits 55 we buy DR pesos with our US $. Just helping where we can. (Rate dropped to 35 within 6 months after that high but don't expect that again.)
 
C

cobraboy

Guest
The Banco Central has been steadily weakening the peso, leading to more people hoarding dollars in recognition of that weakness.

Lower rates have the effect of weakening a currency.....which explains the peso falling quicker than normal the last few months.

Banco Central lowered its monetary policy rates on June 30, July 31 and August 31st.....going from 5.5% to 4.5%. That may not significantly affect the average consumer, but to commercial buyers the hit is significant........and as such they tend to hoard dollars understanding they will have more future value in dollars than pesos.

https://www.bancentral.gov.do/

There is likely not a real shortage of dollars............just a reluctancy for business to part with them as the peso has devalued so rapidly.

Let's see if they hold the rate steady on September 30th.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
Our landlord has frozen our rent at renewal for the next two years if we pay in dollars.

No problem.
 
U

USA DOC

Guest
Our landlord has frozen our rent at renewal for the next two years if we pay in dollars.

No problem.

….or maybe open a few more businesses that will produce more dollars in the market place...yes like a laundry......
 
C

cobraboy

Guest
….or maybe open a few more businesses that will produce more dollars in the market place...yes like a laundry......
I think he's tired of being on the low end of the stick with the exchange rate.

Our rent has been the same in pesos for six years, and in terms of dollars has gone down considerably. So he will keep the original rent amount but in dollars.

That means I won't have had a rent increase in eight years, which is excellent!
 
A

AlterEgo

Guest
Central Bank denies dollar shortage:

computer translated

Posted on:September 26, 2019
By:The National
e-mail:redaccion [@] elnacional.com.do

The Central Bank denied that there is a shortage of currencies in the country as denounced by the Dominican Federation of Merchants and indicated that since last September 13 it has intervened in the exchange market, with the objective of meeting the increase in demand for US dollars, typical of this season of the year, in which traders make their inventory refills for year-end purchases.

The entity said that to date these interventions have exceeded US $ 170MM, and have contributed significantly to guarantee the flow of foreign currency to the real sector and to order the exchange market conditions.

“This, in addition to the natural flow that multiple banks have captured as a result of their daily operations, have contributed an offer of currencies around US $ 1,105 MM; which is equivalent to saying, average daily sales amounts of approximately US $ 138MM, ”he said in a written statement.

The Central Bank added that multiple banks “have sufficient liquidity to meet the normal needs of the market, with amounts in excess of US $ 1,200MM, including cash availability, deposits at the Central Bank and abroad, that is: There are dollars! ”

He clarified that certain pressures on the exchange rate are expected, in an environment where trade disputes between the US continue to sharpen. and China, geopolitical conflicts intensify, such as the negotiations of the Nuclear Agreement with Iran and Brexit, and in view of the prospects of a slowed global economy.

He also recalled that the Dominican Republic has a small and open economy, which means that it is no stranger to what is happening internationally. At the national level, the tourism sector has been affected by a negative campaign towards the country, in addition to feeling the effects of uncertainties and expectations of the economic agents of a pre-electoral period, a situation that did not happen last year.

However, the Central Bank stressed that despite this adverse environment, the Dominican Republic remains the best positioned economy in the region. This is evidenced in that, as of September 23, 2019, the Dominican peso had depreciated 3.3%, well below what other emerging economies have experienced, such as: Argentina (-33.6%), Uruguay (-11.9%) , Turkey (-7.5%), Brazil (-7.2%), Colombia (-4.5%), Paraguay (-6.7%), and China (-3.4%); and similar to Chile (-2.9%). Even in industrialized economies, as in the case of the Euro Zone, the depreciation of the Euro is around -4.56%.

Once again, the Central Bank reiterated to economic agents and the general public that “it is taking firm measures to mitigate these effects, maintaining its commitment to react in a timely manner to guarantee price stability and sustained growth of the Dominican economy. "

The Central Bank affirmed that the interventions will continue to the extent necessary for the purchase and sale of dollars to continue normally and to stabilize the exchange market. He emphasized that, with the next launch of the electronic currency platform, he will have more tools to order the market.

ONE POINT

Will continue to intervene

The Central Bank said in its statement that it has already placed 170 million in the market and that the interventions will continue to the extent necessary for the purchase and sale of dollars to continue normally and to stabilize the exchange market.

https://elnacional.com.do/banco-central-niega-escasez-de-dolares/
 
P

playacaribe2

Guest
Central Bank denies dollar shortage:

computer translated

Posted on:September 26, 2019
By:The National
e-mail:redaccion [@] elnacional.com.do

The Central Bank denied that there is a shortage of currencies in the country as denounced by the Dominican Federation of Merchants and indicated that since last September 13 it has intervened in the exchange market, with the objective of meeting the increase in demand for US dollars, typical of this season of the year, in which traders make their inventory refills for year-end purchases.

The entity said that to date these interventions have exceeded US $ 170MM, and have contributed significantly to guarantee the flow of foreign currency to the real sector and to order the exchange market conditions.

“This, in addition to the natural flow that multiple banks have captured as a result of their daily operations, have contributed an offer of currencies around US $ 1,105 MM; which is equivalent to saying, average daily sales amounts of approximately US $ 138MM, ”he said in a written statement.

The Central Bank added that multiple banks “have sufficient liquidity to meet the normal needs of the market, with amounts in excess of US $ 1,200MM, including cash availability, deposits at the Central Bank and abroad, that is: There are dollars! ”

He clarified that certain pressures on the exchange rate are expected, in an environment where trade disputes between the US continue to sharpen. and China, geopolitical conflicts intensify, such as the negotiations of the Nuclear Agreement with Iran and Brexit, and in view of the prospects of a slowed global economy.

He also recalled that the Dominican Republic has a small and open economy, which means that it is no stranger to what is happening internationally. At the national level, the tourism sector has been affected by a negative campaign towards the country, in addition to feeling the effects of uncertainties and expectations of the economic agents of a pre-electoral period, a situation that did not happen last year.

However, the Central Bank stressed that despite this adverse environment, the Dominican Republic remains the best positioned economy in the region. This is evidenced in that, as of September 23, 2019, the Dominican peso had depreciated 3.3%, well below what other emerging economies have experienced, such as: Argentina (-33.6%), Uruguay (-11.9%) , Turkey (-7.5%), Brazil (-7.2%), Colombia (-4.5%), Paraguay (-6.7%), and China (-3.4%); and similar to Chile (-2.9%). Even in industrialized economies, as in the case of the Euro Zone, the depreciation of the Euro is around -4.56%.

Once again, the Central Bank reiterated to economic agents and the general public that “it is taking firm measures to mitigate these effects, maintaining its commitment to react in a timely manner to guarantee price stability and sustained growth of the Dominican economy. "

The Central Bank affirmed that the interventions will continue to the extent necessary for the purchase and sale of dollars to continue normally and to stabilize the exchange market. He emphasized that, with the next launch of the electronic currency platform, he will have more tools to order the market.

ONE POINT

Will continue to intervene

The Central Bank said in its statement that it has already placed 170 million in the market and that the interventions will continue to the extent necessary for the purchase and sale of dollars to continue normally and to stabilize the exchange market.

https://elnacional.com.do/banco-central-niega-escasez-de-dolares/

Interesting that the Banco Central intervened on September 13 and announced an intervention to supply more dollars, yet deny that there was a shortage.

Read between those lines............and look at how the peso has declined since the end of June. That sharp move down in value does not go unnoticed by businesses.......who then tend to hoard dollars........and thus create a temporary shortage of dollars circulating.

If the Banco Central does not announce a further interest rate reduction today, the peso will likely stabilize to its normal pattern of weakening which is about 4% per annum........and barring any major crisis that could arise.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
R

rubio_higuey

Guest
And the dollar has gone up 15 points since yesterday morning .... now selling in some banks at 52.40 ad others at 52.35 ... this is up from 51.42 2 weeks ago ... that's 0.9 peso increase in just 2 weeks. If it goes at this rate, it will hit 58 by year end....let's hope not. As for myself I have liquidated all DOP based liquid assets in the past 2 weeks. For that I had to go by internal transfers at 2 banks between DOP-USD accounts and over the counter purchase at some banks as well. The banks now limit you to 1000 USD internet banking dollar purchase per business day, and 1000 USD over the counter purchase at official rate. It used to be 10,000 USD just few months back. It's good to have accounts with 4 banks... and I have applied to open two more 500-pesos minimum DOP savings account to become client of 2 more banks.
 
R

rubio_higuey

Guest
Part II.

I guess we will need to watch September 30, and October 6 closely. Are the markets uncertain of October 6 just in general terms, or if there a "fear" of certain candidate in specific? I hope that after October 6 all gets back to normal. It's crazy how peso had depreciated since mid-June and especially what's been going on now in September. A 20 point per-month depreciation of June, July, August (which I considered fast depreciation) has now become 20 points per-2-days depreciation.
 
T

Timotero

Guest
.......... It's good to have accounts with 4 banks... and I have applied to open two more 500-pesos minimum DOP savings account to become client of 2 more banks.

Wow, how do you remember all those ATM pin codes? (Or are they all “BOSCO”?). (;-)

What I think is different this time is I don’t see the same type of “panic” as when the rate hit 50:1 back in 2004 under Hippolito Mejia. (Llego Papa!......adios dinero!)
 
C

cavok

Guest
Wow, how do you remember all those ATM pin codes? (Or are they all “BOSCO”?). (;-)

What I think is different this time is I don’t see the same type of “panic” as when the rate hit 50:1 back in 2004 under Hippolito Mejia. (Llego Papa!......adios dinero!)

The difference is, back then, the peso soared from about 25 to 50 in a little under a year.
 
P

playacaribe2

Guest
And not to forget the huge decline in tourists the past few months and the dollars/euro/loonies they would have injected into the economy.

In its simplest terms, anybody who buys/bought to invest in peso CD's in this exchange rate environment is likely to now be having second thoughts.......and well they should.

This is not 2004 when the peso both devalued/strengthened rapidly in an in-orderly fashion. The IMF is not riding in this time to rescue a banking system in crisis.

Exchange your dollars/euros/loonies on an as needed basis.....


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
C

chico bill

Guest
Thanks for sharing. I never thought to ask for such a deal.

Sounds like the LL parks his money, so he must have more income than he needs to live on here.
I do think rents are falling based on what I am seeing in Sosua.
With other prices increasing (vehicles, govt fees, food & fuel) it seems odd that rent would be the one thing falling - Seems to be lower demand alone, as construction prices have increased markedly


A serious recession should bring down construction costs in the future too ?
 
P

playacaribe2

Guest
Banco Central announced today that it is keeping its monetary policy rate steady at 4.5% for October. Peso should, barring any unforeseen black swan event(s), return to its normal rate of devaluation..........


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2