Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Western Portion of South Coast

The Dominican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast area from Punta Palenque, located SW of Santo Domingo, westward to the border with Haiti. The National Hurricane Center anticipates that it will issue a Hurricane Watch for Haiti later today.

The eye of the storm is presently about 510 miles southeast of Santo Domingo and is moving through the Caribbean in a westerly direction, though this is expected to change to northwestward later today.

Current forecasts indicate that the east portion of the island will have little effect from the storm.

To see the 11am position and presently estimated track, see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1302W.GIF

2pm Update

The National Hurricane Center has issued a supplementary report giving the storms position as of 2pm.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for its entire south coast, and may switch this to a hurricane warning later today.

As of 2pm, the storm was still moving west, with wind speeds continuing around 70mp. But its forward speed has slowed from 16mph to 13mph, often an indication that there will be an increase in wind speed. The NHC presently expects that Lili will become a hurricane by sometime Wednesday (winds 75+ mph).

The next complete report will be issued about 5pm, including an updated projection as to the future track of the storm.

(Note: The longer the storm moves west before swinging more to the north, the better it is for the DR and Haiti because this will cause the eye to be further to the west when the storm makes its turn to the north.)

Danger Area Moved West

The 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the forward speed of the storm is slowing--now 13 mph--and that it is still moving west. As a result, the projected storm track when the storm begins its usual northward course passes nearer the west end of Haiti than was previous projected. In otherwords, less of the DR is within the anticipated danger area.

You can see the storm track projection at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1302W.GIF

As I indicated in my previous post, the longer the storm travels west before swinging to the north, the better it is for the DR. Somebody is going to get hit, but it decreases the likelihood those most affected will be Dominicans.