An Editorial, by Me the Hillbilly, and not long//..

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Today George Dubya canned his economic team, O'Neil the Treasury Sec and Lindsey the Economic chief at the White House.
He realized that even as a very successful war leader, super popular leader that had taken his party to new electoral successes, he was falling in the eyes of his people, due to the economic problems facing the USA.

In the last few months, in fact, in the last few weeks, the peso has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar. While "Happy Face" seems to think he can solve this over the weekend, unless he takes really drastic measures, this will not be a Merry Christmas for the Dominican people. The business class has been really hard hit. If, as has happened in many cases, a Dollar line of credit has been extended, that person has lost 30% in the last three weeks. US$50,000 dollars was RD$897,500 to be repayed. Now it is RD$1,225.000 to be repayed. There is no way to cover that loss. And this is just one case the businessmen are facing.

In the lower brackets of the middleclass, people with relatively fixed incomes, say 8-10,000 pesos a month, have seen their buying power lowered to 6,000 pesos, their salary perhaps ten years ago...

And, as things "trickle down", it just gets worse. Every grain of wheat that comes into this country is paid for in dollars. A $1.00 pound of wheat is now 24.50 pesos, up from 17.95 just days ago , and that is a 36.5% leap in cost.

All this is creating a forboding shadow over the political and social stability of this beautiful country. Hipolito the Bald had better take a lesson from ol' Dubya. Clean house and take some drastic steps. I, for one, am not alone in requesting that the electrical distributors be nationalized, with the emission of a decree. Yes, just the signing of a decree, to condem the Union Fenosa for treason against the Dominican Republic. No compensation and let the freaking chips fall where they may. No matter who handled the electric companies in the past, it has never has such terrible consecuences as it does today. Kicking their asses out of the country would bring life into the country, and perhaps some hope. Hope? Last seen leaving on the 3 o'clock for Miami....

Finally, I think a few public executions are in order. I would leave it up to Golo and PIB to come up with a list of candidates.



HB
 
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Well spoken HB, the only viable economic increase will be in the number of tourist, many more will come with the falling value of the peso. This will only help the mega corps who run the resorts, hopefully there will be a spill over to the local merchants as well.
 

Pib

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Jan 1, 2002
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Althought I am on vacation right now I went to work yesterday. The reason? Income is lagging because our customers are falling behind in their payments. So, I set out to visit some of them. I can now tell more horror stories than 10 Stephen Kings combined.

Things I heard yesterday:

There wasn't a dollar to be seen yesterday. Not one financial institution dared to tell you what the exchange rate is. Everywhere you hear "no tenemos tasa". Everybody suspected it could be in the range of 25/1, but not one dare to say, for fear of being wrong a few hours later.

Our suppliers don't accept payments in pesos. We even begged them, they all say that pesos are pretty much useless right now.

My customers begged me to accept payment in pesos. At whatever rate we set. We can't take them, we cannot take pesos if we have to pay in dollars, unexistant dollars that is.

Everybody is holding their breath, asking themselves "what to do?". A lot of vendors have decided to rather keep their inventories. I understand, it would be rather stupid to sell their stock on credit, in pesos. Some of them even refuse to sell cash on delivery, they say there's no use if they will have to buy dollars in January to buy the same merchandise.

My best friend, an economist, put it all in simple terms for me: "we're screwed".
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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Pib, your succinct statement has done more for me than all the other informative postings on this general subject to appreciate what a crisis the country is in.

I agree with HB, heads must roll if this crisis is to be resolved.
 

Larry

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Mar 22, 2002
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on the flip side

A gringo coming down there with a wad of Dollars can make his money go a long way.I just wish I had a couple of hundred grand under my mattress....the good old USA would not see me again for a looooong time.
Larry
 

Lee-Lee

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Oct 17, 2002
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the business and lower classes have been mentioned. how are the health professionals affected by this mess? is the health care privatized in the DR? if so they are probably screwed as well.
 

Pib

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There's no flip side Larry. As the dollar goes up so will most of the products and services. In the end those with dollars will only be in the same situation than they could have been at the beginning of the crisis.
 
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SDecatur

Guest
Pib said:
There's no flip side Larry. As the dollar goes up so will most of the products and services. In the end those with dollars will only be in the same situation than they could have been at the beginning of the crisis.

Some don't seem to understand what the devalation means: The room at the hamaca that was 1000 pesos per person will simply be 1500-2000 per person. It's the poor sucker who gets paid in Pesos and the trade imbalance that will suffer
 

x_man

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Jan 1, 2002
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Me too...

I don't know if to laugh when I go to the money exchange every morning or to cry when I think about who has to to pay for it.
X.
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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Pib said:
There's no flip side Larry. As the dollar goes up so will most of the products and services. In the end those with dollars will only be in the same situation than they could have been at the beginning of the crisis.

You are absolutely right, Pib. This is certainly happening in the supermarket.

The person with dollars to exchange has a way of meeting to some extent the increasing cost--though at times I am sure the prices rise faster than the exchange rate changes, but what about all the people who must buy products and services that now cost more, but who have no way to meet the increase other than buy buying fewer products and less service?

It is fast becoming a desperate situation for many.
 

Escott

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Jan 14, 2002
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So who is getting ahead here? Is it the coffee grower that is charging 20% more for his product in the Supermarket and paying labor at the peso price of yesterday?

What are the answers to these problems?
 

Pib

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Jan 1, 2002
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Jazz, this is a lose/lose situation for everybody. There is no advantage for producers/sellers in this case. Whatever extra income they have for raising the prices they lose for lack of sales and other hidden costs. Even those that don't import directly have to buy from those who do. And remember, the government ALREADY collected taxes, even if the tax-payer actually lost money. Ah, the beauty of this system!
 

Pib

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Maybe one of our residents economists can chime in and explain it with big words. I have the feeling that a country's economy doesn't work like that Physics law "Energy is neither created nor destroyed". I have the feeling that what the money does is just end up abroad, used to pay imports and international loans. No winners in the DR.

Maybe you should pose that question to Frederic, hopefully he'll give us a crash course in macroeconomics (I wished that instead of paying attention to the handsome proffesor I had payed attention to what he was saying).
 
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Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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In a global sense, here is what happened these past three or four weeks.
A businessman took a 50,000 line of credit in dollars becaue the interest rate was so much lower. He purchased merchandise with that money but he cannot replace this merchandis since that 50,000 that should have cost 900,000 pesos is not over 1,225.000 oesos. He los 300,000 in deflation alone. If he was or is selling on the local market at a 25% profit, he lost 5 or 8% right off the bat, and he can't replace his inventory....
This is happening to a greater or lesser extent in every single business that was fairly prosperous in early 2002.

Chavez goes, Hippo knows.....He next!!

God willing...

HB
 
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SDecatur

Guest
Pib said:
Maybe one of our residents economists can chime in and explain it with big words. I have the feeling that a country's economy doesn't work like that Physics law "Energy is neither created nor destroyed". I have the feeling that what the money does is just end up abroad, used to pay imports and international loans. No winners in the DR.

Maybe you should pose that question to Frederic, hopefully he'll give us a crash course in macroeconomics (I wished that instead of paying attention to the handsome proffesor I had payed attention to what he was saying).

I'm not one of the resident economists, in fact I was chastised for offering an opinio or more accurately asking a question relating to the DR economy, but this is economice 101. anyone or company with a supply of hard dollars not dependent on the Peso in any way, makes out great in the short run, while Peso prices adjust to meet the "new" rate, people who are paid in pesos or use Pesos in their purchase of products reguiring hard dollars are "screwed'

Simply put, as has happened in Canada over the past two decades, the devaluation of yoor currency puts the entire country in a severe finanncial crisis, be it those immediately affected by their pay checks being halved or cut by a third, or the long term effect of not being able to purchase goods or import needed products, like OIL
 

BushBaby

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Jan 1, 2002
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Is there anything WE can do to speed Hippo's exit??? How do we get this message of woe over to those who have been given jobs by this extravagant Government? I am willing to do my bit (& a bit more if I can) to assist this man into oblivion, but where do I start??

If this was Argentina or Venezuela, perhaps we would be having serious revolts/demonstrations by now.

Had to talk with EdeNorte yesterday about our blckout of 11 hours (I was told it was a breakdown, but I don't believe a word of that rubbish) so I explained to the girl about the upcoming abuse EdeNorte staff are likely to experience unless the management & owners start acting responsibly - she seemed to get the message & even sounded a bit scared!! Can we all start doing this to start getting the message across?? Getting angry at the staff is no good, we have to 'help' them see the light by warning them of the dangers they are soon to face!! - Grahame.
 
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SDecatur

Guest
Pib said:
I cannot think of one company in that situation. Any idea?

Caertainly, any tourist arriving with US dollars for a short term vacation should enjoy favorable prices on Dominican produced products

Does this now mean you will challenge each and every post I make? If so, you have won the battle, I can leave as easily as I appeared, It is not worth my time to quibble over your inane remarks, but the victory of the battle hardly constitutes the long term war, your choice to harass is lacking in civility and common sense from the perspective of a person supposedly providing advice to persons interested in traveling to or investing in the Dominican economy