Extreme Weather on the Rise

Political Agenda On the Rise

The weather doomsayers have been so wrong in recent years, especially about hurricane predictions, that it would be remarkable if they have any credibility at all. Maybe we should even be reassured. Any idiot, a little kid, or even someone with a dart board, would have done better.

If you want to know about extreme weather, consider the decade of the 1930's for example. There was the dust bowl, the Ohio River flood (rivalling the upper Mississippi flood of 10 years ago), what may have been THE most powerful hurricane ever in the Florida keys, plus several other powerful ones in the Caribbean. On a day in 1936, what has been called possibly THE most powerful tornado in history hit the little town of Tupelo, MS, killing more than 200 people. The next day, it's brother, apparently, hit Gainesville, GA and also killed more than 200. Only a few years previously, in 1925, a very long lived tornado had made a voyage through Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana killing about 700 people.

Just because we have satellites and advanced radar today that detect more tornadoes, most of them harmless, doesn't mean that they didn't exist unreported before.

Since the powers that be invented global warming, any such "predictions" are actually "wishes" to justify their political agenda.

Concerning prediction of hurricanes, as far as I know the only one who had any such demonstrable power was a Dr. Browning who died several years ago. In one of his last interviews, he was asked about global warming. He responded that there is no such thing, but that on the contrary he saw nothing to rule out the possibility of another ice age. He did not claim to be able to predict when, or even if, it would occur. He did say however that the geological evidence is that when an ice age starts, it does so very rapidly - possibly in as little as 20 years.

As soon as the powers that be have milked global warming as much as possible, they will suddenly make the remarkable discovery that we are actually in danger of an ice age, and start taking away our other conveniences. When that happens, remember where you heard it first, and give credit where it is due.

Fortunatly we have a hurricane expert at DR1, Dolores.

I have never seen anyone eyes light up so much as the hurricane season approaches

http://www.dr1.com/weather/hurricanes.shtml

One of the posters on the board, XanaduRanch, is a 'real' weather expert - his eyes also light up at the thought of a hurricane. So, Xanadu, tell us what you think of these predictions?

"The weather doomsayers have been so wrong in recent years, especially about hurricane predictions, that it would be remarkable if they have any credibility at all."

I think Dr. William Gray at the University of Colorado might take exception to your above statement. His predictions about the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that form every season have been fairly accurate for the last 10 years or so. Also, the former director of the National Weather Service's Miami Hurricane Center who recently retired (I can't remember his name) was also quite accurate in hurricane prediction.

And although weather prediction is an inexact science as you so aptly pointed out, the current computer models used by the NWS's Hurricane Center are also getting much more accurate in storm path prediction.

Actually the best source for predicting hurricane behavior was weatherman Charlie Stump at Orlando's Channel 9 TV but ole' Charlie has gone on to that great cumulus cloud in the sky so we'll just have to continue to rely upon the NWS for further information.

Andy B

So what is your point?

Are you saying that you agree that the weather is becoming more extreme?

The man at the Miami Hurricane Center was (Bob?) Sheets. I used to enjoy his commentary, but I don't remember him making a single prediction about number or severity of hurricanes. Was I wrong?

What about last year, for example, how many were predicted? A half dozen or so wasn't it? And how many were there? One or two?

Three or four years ago when the la Nina weather phenomenon was in effect, I seem to recall a somewhat similar situation. In that case, at least one noted meteorologist (whose specialty was predicting weather for crop futures, I believe) was saying that it would be a mild year for hurricances, despite the rather turbulent atmosphere. Why, because strong atmospheric currents at moderate altitude would keep the tops of hurricanes sheared off so they couldn't become very strong. He was right.

If anyone really could predict the weather, he'd become rich very quickly on the payroll of crop futures speculators.

BTW, I just happened to stop in an auto parts store today, and was told that there is a rumor that Freon 12, which used to be used in automobile air conditioners, might start to be sold again. After artificially making all automobile (manufactured before a certain date) air conditioners obsolete, and "sucked in" a new generation, could it be that they are ready to change the rules again?

"The weather doomsayers have been so wrong in recent years, especially about hurricane predictions, that it would be remarkable if they have any credibility at all."

I think Dr. William Gray at the University of Colorado might take exception to your above statement. His predictions about the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that form every season have been fairly accurate for the last 10 years or so. Also, the former director of the National Weather Service's Miami Hurricane Center who recently retired (I can't remember his name) was also quite accurate in hurricane prediction.

And although weather prediction is an inexact science as you so aptly pointed out, the current computer models used by the NWS's Hurricane Center are also getting much more accurate in storm path prediction.

Actually the best source for predicting hurricane behavior was weatherman Charlie Stump at Orlando's Channel 9 TV but ole' Charlie has gone on to that great cumulus cloud in the sky so we'll just have to continue to rely upon the NWS for further information.

Actualy, I AM a Rocket Scientist

I will have a more thoughtful, reasoned response later when I have not been dipping into the wine cabinet Chris.

But the short answer is that weather is not more extreme now than it ever has been. It's actually much calmer and less variable.

The problem really boils down to human life-span and the inability to comprehend climatic trends over the long term. What's that? Three or four years of weather we've not seen before and we go crazy. Long term, in terms of the planet, is maybe a few million years. Spikes and differences occur over hundreds or thousands of years and it's hardly a blip on the planetary climatological scale. Chill folks.

More later ...

P.S.
My degrees are in Atmospheric Physics and Astronomy and YES I am waiting expectantly for a good 'ol Hurricane ... ! :: smile ::

Sorry about that second, identical post but I'm having a lot of trouble with Codetel tonight.

Now to get back to the point: the weather is a lot more predictable than you may think. We are just discovering that it is cyclical with hurricane activity being in a 20 year cycle. My point was that as you say, no one can ACCURATELY predict the weather but we are rapidly coming to the point where predictions are BECOMING a lot more accurate.

Ken and I are both keenly attuned to weather as both of us have spent a lot of time on the ocean and in that environment, weather can easily be a life or death situation.

Andy B ...

Yes and no. The computer models have become much better at predicting weather, but notclimate. That is, they are fine in our little epochal niche right now. But Andy A is absolutely correct in his assesment of the probablity of another ice age. This is far more likely than run-amuck warming. Do you realize that ice core samples taken indicate an extreme increase in greenhouse gases just prior to each of the last three ice ages?

Best bet to halt global warming if you're worried about it (don't be) would be to get Kofi Anan and Al Gore to put duct tape over their mouths for the next twenty years so we can avoid the next ice age that will trigger.

There are sound scientific reasons behind this, as contradictatory as it may seem, but I am too tired to teach right now. Wait for installment two tomorrow.

Tom

Thanks Chris for getting me into this one.

Gee, thanks for the support XanaduRanch.

Was that a left-handed Thank You Andy A? I was only trying to help! LOL. I am tired too, but you're right. Tell you all about it tomorrow ...

That was an absolutely sincere thanks Tom (XanaduRanch).

I believe strongly in gratitude. (Dominicans could use more of it.)

I also know that many, probably most, physicists are political leftists, so it takes guts for you to dispute global warming.

Physicists also appreciate nice chicas - always a pleasant subject.

Thoughts on Claudette ...

and other weather phenomena which affects the DR and the world.

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/richlowry/rl20030718.shtml