Another storm in the neighborhood

NOAA Tropical Prediction Center probabilities for today, Monday, gives Santo Domingo a total probability of less than a 30% chance of the depression coming within 65 nautical miles of the Capital by Thursday. So, let's celebrate. Regards, PJT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT1+shtml/210839.shtml? Note: Look for the code "MDSD" in the first column.

Based on the present projected track, the South Coast is almost certain to get rain, possibly heavy, when the storm passes. Whether it gets more than that depends on wind strength and distance from shore.

NOAA shmooaa!

In my half-vast experience, the storm track is just the kind that gives us a good dousing. Hopefully, this will be true, since we do need the rain.

And, it is a little too early in the season for Erica, if she gets born, to veer over us. But not by much, so be careful and those of you on the South Shore, make normal provisions and watch the weather sites. www.weather.com is very good and shows up to the minute satellite photos of the area: Tropical Atlantic
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

HB

So what does people here do to ready themselves for a big storm/hurricane?
I tried to buy a roll of plastic and cant find any. Water comes throught the cracks in my windows and thought to put plastic over it when the rain blows. I live near the Carribean and the rain really blows. Also duck tape crossed on the glass...does that help?
Last hard rain lost my puter. The water coming in the cracks of the window got on my puter and blew the electrical supply. So I moved it away from the window. All is sitting on blocks cause my place floods...water pours under the balcony door. Had to sleep on the sofa for 2 nights til the bed dried out.
So let me know what to do to protect myself here.

OK, Dolores, Here's One to Watch ...

Take a look at the satellite photos for the last 24 hours or so (TUE 29-WED 30) around 20 West Lon, and south of 15-20 North Lat. This storm is showing good cyclonic rotation, lots of convection not embedded in the ITZ, and is under an area of high pressure aloft so it's not being sheared at the moment, nor is it likely to be the next few days. In this environment another 24 hours will bring it at or close to TD7 status. The next name up is Erika.

Hurricanes and tropical weather were not my specialty ... but watch this one IMO. It's in a great place to develop right now.

Tom (aka XR)

Edited to correct spelling of Erika

Stop this One!

This one looks quite well placed to decide to cause some chaos! If I was on a boat, I'd start battening down the hatches!

6:00PM Wednesday, July 30, 2003

The system of most interest over the tropical Atlantic is a tropical wave located near 28 west and south of 16 north. A small low pressure area has formed on the wave close to 9 north. The upper level structure over the system looks quite favorable with little or no shear and a building east west upper level high over the region. If the lower levels continue to evolve we could have a depression within 36 hours.

Click to expand...

What I said.

Forgot the Link

Here's another good view ... just entering the Eastern edge of the loop ...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/ad...e_large.asp?getarea=catl&sattype=ei&type=loop

The best coverage I've found of threatening weather is the Intellicast site. Not only do they have good forecasting and storm tracking, they also have very good satellite coverage with the ITC zone shown in the Atlantic HIRES view. Check it out at this address: http://www.intellicast.com/StormCenter/

Today Probably

Sometime today, probably later this afternoon I would bet, we'll have T.D. 7. forming out of the wave currently at 30W/10N. Also note there's a large area of thunderstorms about 600 miles ENE of us that has intensified over night. This is associated with another wave at 65W/23N

Re: Today Probably

XanaduRanch said:

Sometime today, probably later this afternoon I would bet, we'll have T.D. 7. forming out of the wave currently at 30W/10N. Also note there's a large area of thunderstorms about 600 miles ENE of us that has intensified over night. This is associated with another wave at 65W/23N

Click to expand...

So, Tom, do us a forecast!

Geez. I haven't actually written any forecasts in at least 10 years! And this tropical stuff. Well, just not used to it. In Iowa thunderstorms even tornadoes you could time down to the minute just about. Here they develop or diminish more than actual move, and when they do move they go in circles. Hard to deal with that yet in my head.

But ... The storms NE of us are on the north edge of a westward moving tropical wave. I'd put that wave itself entering the eastern part of the island after midnight Friday morning. So anytime from late Thursday night through Friday we should see lots of thunderstorms around the area again. Probably start to slack off after the wave passes by late Friday night or early Saturday morning. There is another wave east but look for that to get eaten up by the main storm before then.

Extrapolation and the latest guidance moves what probably will be TD7 along pretty fast - into the lesser Antilles late Saturday and SE of us by Sunday. One thing I learned long ago from watching midwestern snow storms is that the storms always take an extra day or two to arrive beyond what you think. I would predict that the storm will slow as it gathers strength and arrive in our neighborhood with more rain and thunderstoms during the day Monday. If the wind patterns hold it will graze by South of us but it looks like a large storm so we'll have to watch that.

Is dr1 starting a new practice of worrying about weather formations long before there is any reason to think they might threaten portions of the Dominican Republic?

Seems to me there is already enough anxiety among persons with hotel reservations for the summer and fall about the possibility of bad weather during their vacation (as evidenced by the threads started with the question as to whether they need to worry about a storm spoiling their vacation) to begin reporting distant tropical waves and depressions that could develop further and might someday be of concern to the Dominican Republic.

What, me worry?

Ken, not at all all. All weather forecasts here this time of year are simply tied to watching these tropical waves pass by, and sometimes develop. Personally I really enjoy seeing a few storms and we definitely need the rain. No one should be afraid of a little rain - but you know tourists just want sunshine!

Very little to worry about here on the North Coast anyway as far as Hurricanes are concerned because of the prevailing wind patterns and the physical geography of the coast. I did a search once for any TS/TC's within 100 miles of Xanadu over the last 150 years. Found like 5 total. most were weak as one would expect due to the direction of the coastline, and the mountain ranges behind. Only thing that would ever concern me here is that the power sometimes hardly stays on when the sun is shining. What happens when we get 20" of rain from a cyclone? Maybe it'll wash away somebody's BIG NEW HOUSE in ... ah well. That's another thread!

As Usual...

You are right on from the tourist perspective Ken. For me, it is not a worry, it is a hangover from my sailing days where, as you know, you live with the weather - and actually find it interesting.

I do hope though the 'weather watchers' on DR1 don't turn out to be similar to the airline watchers. This would too much too take

More seriously, your cautionary note is well received....

If you go back over past hurricane seasons, you will find that weather conditions that might affect the DR were reported as soon as there was any reason to think it might pass anywhere near the DR. You will also find that people who rang the alarm long before there was any reason to do so were criticized.

And like you, Chris, I know that there are different audiences. What a tourist needs to know is quite different from a sailor. And seeing as how I still have a sailboat anchored in the harbor at Samana, this is not my favorite time of year.

Well, please don't construe anything I've posted as an immenent warning of cyclones in the D.R.

Each passing wave will bring a chance of increased showers and thunderstorms, that's all. Some pass by completely unnoticed. And even with these going by we still have sunshine for the paleskins 98 hours out of 100. I have a degree in atmospheric physics and simply noted to Dolores that in my professional opinion we could have our first real system of the season form out of that wave off Africa. Not that the system was heading here to the island to rain God's wrath down on the Mejia government and all it has wrought here.

So anyone reading that the system will be in the neighborhood in the next 4 or 5 days, just relax! If it's close enough enjoy the lightning show!