Results 1 to 5 of 5

Thread: Up Next: Good 'Old St. Nicholas?

  1. #1
    *** Sin Bin ***
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Posts
    2,427
    Post Thanks / Like

    Post Up Next: Good 'Old St. Nicholas?

    Tropical Depression 19 is reported to be very near tropical storm strength this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/hr) with higher gusts. The depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. It is not expected to be a threat to the Dominican Republic at this time.

    At 5 PM AST the center was located near latitude 11.2 north and longitude 42.3 west or about 1200 miles (1930 km) east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

    Later in the forecast period the intensity will be strongly dependent on location. If the system is farther north than forecast the shear will likely be stronger resulting in a weaker system. If the tropical cyclone moves along a more southerly track than expected it should experience less shear and probably get stronger.

    It is of interest to note that since 1900 there have been only 7 hurricanes to the east of the Lesser Antilles ... in the deep tropical Atlantic ... during the month of October.

    Tom (aka XR)
    Last edited by XanaduRanch; 10-14-2003 at 05:44 PM.

  2. #2
    Platinum
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Posts
    12,244
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Originally posted by XanaduRanch
    It is not expected to be a threat to the Dominican Republic at this time.
    If anything, that is an understatement considering its present location and expected track http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/141458W5.gif

  3. #3
    *** Sin Bin ***
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Posts
    2,427
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Way too early to know anything about this TD yet, Ken. Look at the 'guidance' charts. They are all over the map. Forecasters don't have a clue yet either as to which way it may go or even whether it will develop.

    That's all normal, it's barely a tropical system, at this point. In these early stages anything can happen. It's 50-50 whether it will curve North or be block by a ridge north and head west. North it'll fizzle out, south it'll grow.

    We'll see. I just make sure that any information available on any named storm is in here. Keeps folks less excited. Less likely to spit up there Presidentes worrying about the possibility that there's some surprise lurking out there in the deep blue that they hadn't heard about.

    Tom (aka XR)

  4. #4
    Platinum
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Posts
    12,244
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I agree that anything can happen. When it comes to hurricanes, I don't stop worrying about them until they get to the Bahamas.

  5. #5
    *** Sin Bin ***
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Posts
    2,427
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default Morning Report

    Have you read the morning internal discussion? Makes all those points very well and there's some interesting info there as well. A few highlights:
    • Do not want to make any radical changes to the position or forecast track at night due to the uncertainly in the exact location of the low-level center. However the ... extrapolated initial position requires that the forecast track be adjusted to the left of the previous track.
    • The global models remain quite divergent from the outset. It seems that the global models are not handling very well the upper-level convergence zone that lies to the north and northwest of the cyclone as seen in water vapor imagery.
    • Once the next upstream shortwave trough moves northeast of
      Nicholas in 36-48 hours...a much stronger east-west oriented ridge will build to the north of the cyclone and turn it back westward. The big question is how far north will Nicholas move before the westward turn begins.
    • With Nicholas forecast to remain at a lower latitude and under favorable shear conditions for the next 24-36 hours...more strengthening is expected than has been indicated in previous forecasts.
    • If the low-level center is actually farther southeast into the deeper convection then Nicholas could undergo a period of rapid intensification and even become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.
    Tom (aka XR)
    Last edited by XanaduRanch; 10-15-2003 at 10:37 AM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •