A poll of sorts

Would like to think we were at rock bottom, but this government has not demonstrated the will nor the intellect to put the brakes on. Being hopeful, I voted that things could get a little worse, but fear they could get much worse.

Each day I find myself "Daydreaming" about a life in the USA!

Not because I find things difficult here,but because I see less and less of a future for our 4 small children! I never used to think like that!
Cris Colon

Cris, I agree with you. I'm beginning to see less and less of a future in the short term (5 to 10 years). In the long run the country will survive but not without lots of grief and misery in the meantime. Anybody want to buy a hotel? I'm 60 now and my wife and I would like to live the rest of our lives in a relatively stable environment.

I think we're not quite at rock bottom yet. There is a ways to go -and it could get a lot worse. But, the IMF refused the bail-out/bridging loan, so, I would speculate that Hippo is quite close to rock-bottom. Now, how long will that take to trickle down?

But unlike my friend Criss, I'm not dreaming about the U.S. (or for that matter, South Africa) yet. The glass is always half-full, not half-empty. Think about it Criss, you can always home-school.

I voted...

I voted for Nowhere near it, but I pray that I am wrong. I think the reason I asked HB to post that poll is because I was curious as to how many other people agreed with me, I have talked to many that are confident this is the worst it can get. I hope that they are right.... you know that saying "nowhere left to go but up frome here" I would love for that to be the saying in this case.

GG

Notice I didn't mention "education",but "Future"!

I have always looked at "Formal Education" (even in the USA) as a "Socialization Process",rather than an educative one! Parents "teach" kids to love to read,and solve problems,and travel.
After "School" then what? Government,healthcare,Law,teaching??See what I mean? CC

"GG",are you talking to Dominicans? They are "Optomists" if nothing else! There is NO reason to be optomistic at this point!That is just wishful thinking! Has the peso stabalized,has the government stopped spending? Point to "something" that bodes a better future!

You can never pick the bottom of the market.. The other week when "we are waiting for the boat to arrive in 2 weeks with additional fuel, and the country only has enough until Friday" the electricity suddenly started working again pretty much the way it used to a few months before.

I'm not saying things will suddenly get better. But they might start heading in the right direction before you realise it.

Don't always be looking down, otherwise you'll miss some big opportunities as things start improving. Which WILL happen sooner or later.

Re: Notice I didn't mention "education",but "Future"!

Criss Colon said:

After "School" then what? Government,healthcare,Law,teaching??See what I mean? CC

Click to expand...

Yes, I see what you mean. My kids grew up in South Africa and I also was concerned about their 'future' - coming from such a small and isolated problematic place. Hell, I could not even speak english till I was 20.

The one is here in the DR with me, helping to run a distribution and export business, and and the other decided to self-educate and is doing really well in his field - He lives in the US. Kids will decide for themselves. I believe if the basic care at home and basic education and socialization is right (and this is in my opinion the responsibility of the parents), then the kids will be OK.

And we have a long way to go on this island - luckily we did not choose Haiti - then we'd have problems.

Tough to change a culture

I don't think it's hit bottom, but I don't see it getting as bad as Argentina did either. I don't KNOW this, it's just my hunch, my feel, my deepest hope.

Common sense would be to hit the road and high tail it out of here. I see more people leaving every day that can, and no new people coming in. My school alone has lost at least a dozen students and faculty since June, with 3 more very dear ones leaving after the beginning of the year. My best friends are leaving as well.

I was thinking how CC keeps posting about buying pesos and I thought to myself, "hey self, what will he be thinking in a year from now if it's at 70-1".

Then I noticed today he's buying US$ at 42. So even the funny ones don't know, and perhaps looking to leave also? If the unthinkable happens in May, I'm leaving - from the North Coast mind you.

My greatest hope is that someone (the next government) will take up their boots and invest in education and hold on for dear life. It would certainly turn out some value in "capital investment" more than investing in power companies.

They may get grilled and have to endure some harsh, and perhaps violent criticism from those that have to work really hard and suffer to make its return felt, but in a decade that "someone" will be on the level of a national (and perhaps international) hero.

My skin crawls to hear people (some close to me) call Dominicans stupid, I really despise that word. Ignorant to levels beyond comprehension yes, but stupid? No, hardly.

However, getting back to apathy, the general population just doesn't give a shit about anything but beer, baseball and bitching.

I think I'm now officially 2/3's Dominican.

I also cringe when I hear people call all Dominicans Stupid.

I also cringe when prostitution is blamed on visiting men from other countries.

If I had a quarter for every idiot I never would have had to work.

I think the question should have been different. I think it should have gone something like...

Do you think it can look any worse than it does now?

Scott

funny was just talking to my wife about this very subject and the future here for my daughter. hmmmmmmmmmmmm i voted in the majority it seemed.

Its not the only rule to gauge stability but the Peso to Dollar issue is extremely important as life can not and will not be stable until we see a stable currency. In my earlier post a few weeks ago I said the following:

"40 pesos was the predicted high on this occasion as it hit the 40 breifly earlier in the year so was bound to test this resistance again.

It will now go down a little more till it finds support before trying the 40 high again for a 3rd time. Statistically the country finds a flood of incoming dollars in December so the 35 to 40 range may hold for now BUT as the country is in such a mess, the influx of dollars may not be enough to offer any inpact this year on the Peso decline due the larger Xmas double wage bill and electric fuel payment problems. (amongst others).

Last year the peso slipped against the dollar till 11th December before enough dollars found there way in to the country which reduced the rate slightly. That gap though was made up by the 14th Janaury. On that basis I think 40 could be breached either in the first week in December or mid Janaury. Despite what Hippo says, he does not have the money left in the petty cash tin to artificially strengthen the Peso now and if he tries it will last perhaps a week.

If 40 is breached then I expect to see 44 very quickly after! "

So it turns out that 40 is breached about 1 week sooner then I expected but it did hit 44 very quickly after. Now what we will see is that 40 now marks support as it was the old 3 times tested high. I still predict that this level will now hold as support during December and the current rate will fall and test 40 twice between now and January. By the 14th Janaury we will see a new all time high if 40 holds and could well reach 47.5 peso's by the 4th week into Janaury.

Whats the consequence of this? Basically, a real mess!! The country has only recently adjusted food and houshold items like TV's cookers etc to the 35 peso rate in so far as holding stock and imports are concerned. It will take another 8 to 12 weeks or so before street prices catch up with a peso rate of 42 so expect a 16% increase in prices across the board in the coming weeks.

Some people think that the peso will go down or strengthen. A drop of a few Peso's is not a downward trend but is adjusting for a bigger push UP. To break the up channel we need the peso back below 34.7 Peso's A glance at the charts over the last decade or so shows us that the normal rate of Peso decline against the dollar was in the order of 1 peso per year. Until we see this occuring again then the economy has not stabilised. The Peso is unlikely to ever go back down again but stability could be demonstrated within 2 to 3 years into the next goverment, but only if they pull ALL the stops to halt these problems.

Just like to close on this with one more thought. Hippo blames a lot of this on the collapse of Banniter but, the rate of the peso decline BEFORE the baninter problem became public was slightly steeper then the rate of decline we are seeing now yet he insists it was the main reason we are in such a mess!

I am in atlanta (right now) and I tell you folks, even in cold weather, atlanta seems alot more charming now than DR. I am really worried in DR and especially about the medical facilities. My mom is in the hospital from a heartattack on the thankgiving night. If it wasn't for the emergency quick response, my mom would have been dead. The hospital staff is so nice and serving and the building is no less than a hilton hotel. Totally advanced state of the art equipment and the surgeon who will operate the open heart surgery on my mom is ranked # 7 in the country. I am really grateful to the american healthcare system and the medical staff who save lives everyday. I am sure my mom would have been dead a long time ago if she were living in DR and depending on DR's emergency ambulance service.
Now for the first time I am beginning to think I may not be safe in DR when it comes to medical emergencies and perhaps even less secured when it comes to my future. I will come back and analyze the current economical situation in DR and see if there is any chance of a immediate turn around. If not, I am coming back home to the dixie.
Regards,
AZB.

Very sorry to hear about your mum AZB I do hope she makes a speedy recovery. I'm sure she is the very best hands just now. The US is the best place to be if you happen to fall ill although here in DR they can patch you up somewhat if you can find your own way to a good hospital in time.

You may be right about the problems this country is facing and I think most of us here are living on a "day to day" basis to see how things work out over the coming year or so. Bit tougher for those that burnt their past bridges and just bought a house here though.

God I Love This Board

I do not think I could go on any other forum on the web and get such educated answers. The person I was speaking to was not Dominican, nor were they American, they were of another nationality, however their viewpoint was so strong (although lacking substance) it was making me wonder if maybe I was viewing things differently.

I am not going to go running for the states, I love the country and I believe in it, so I will stick it out. Without placing blame, I cannot help but think that person(s) are responsible for this economy slump rather than just the performance of the citizens and importing/exporting numbers.

I do not think that the view of the economy can be judged solely on the value to the dollar either, however it does provide an example.

GG

The strong rebound of the US economy(Thanks GWB) will slow the Downward sprial of the DR ecomony a bit but not by much.

Remember over a year ago when I perdicted 40-1 in 2003?
With Hippo and his PRD chopos probably staying in Power you will see 60-1 by summer 2004.
Is there anybody anywhere(Besides a PRD official) who is Bullish on the DR?

The Washington Post paints....

a grim picture of situation in DR: "Dominicans Suffer Reversal of Fortune - Once-Thriving Fiscal Model Turns Sour" is the title of the article at web page below.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A21569-2003Nov29.html

Best, P