Voting For or Voting Against

samiam

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Mar 5, 2003
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Last saturday, I had a couple of friends over for dinner and as it happens in every election year, the conversation gradually veered off to the topics of current politics. I had 4 guests who had voted for Hipolito as they where very upset with the PLD. It so happens that these 4 guys are now voting for Leonel.
Why? According to them, they just want the Hipster out of the National Palace. Its a vote rejecting the status quo not in favor of a particular candidate. One of them was a political science major at Rochester University and he said to me that the polls where in fact so high in favor of one candidate because thats how tendencies behave when people are voting in rejection to someone, in our case Hipolito and his politics. And the safest ticket we see at the moment is in the body of Leonel.

Lets face it, Leonel is not going to bring down the Peso at 17.5 nor the gas prices below $70.00 a gallon nor are they going to solve the energy crisis. In the end its all about kicking out these bunch of criminals that currently govern the DR. Out of the 60%+ Leonel has in the polls, I bet 40%+ just want these A-Holes out of office.

One of the guys at my house said that he'd never voted for a candidate that won but now, for the first time he was voting on someone who was sure to win. I said, my candidate always won and in his last elections lost to Hipolito, now, I want to vote for a winning candidate regardless of who it is.

So, I thought a bit about that and I wonder, How many of you are voting for Leonel or Against Hipolito?
 
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getonwithit

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Mar 17, 2003
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i hope you didn't think too hard about it. i think it is generally accepted that the majority of people will not be voting for leonel, but rather against hipolito.

even supporters of all the other previous prd presidential candidates will probably vote against hipolito (who has hijacked the prd) by voting for leonel.

if you really want something to think about, then think about what must be going through the minds of the pph. if everyone knows they are going to lose, why did they bother to push their position on everyone else instead of standing down gracefully......unless they have something else up their sleeve.
 

suarezn

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Feb 3, 2002
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getonwithit said:
if you really want something to think about, then think about what must be going through the minds of the pph. if everyone knows they are going to lose, why did they bother to push their position on everyone else instead of standing down gracefully......unless they have something else up their sleeve.

The PPH has nothing to lose and everything to gain by pushing Hippo's candidacy. If they can pull off a "win" then they will stay in power for four more years. If they lose, then they will have gained control of the PRD and made it THEIR party. Remember that even if the PRD loses they still will have control of the whole congress, electoral board, justice, etc...so for Leonel (if he wins) to get anything done he will have to either make deals with the PPH or govern by decree (not adviseable). In addition mantaining control of these bodies ensures that they are not brought to justice. You gotta admit, these people from the PPH are very savvy when it comes to DR politics.
If Leonel wins he will have a heck of a time getting anything done. If there's something that the PRD is good at is disrupting, delaying, compromising, etc...Just look at how many important laws (i.e. police reform, banking reform, etc) promoted by leonel were never passed or were completely modified to better suit their interest because congress is under their control.
I'm now becoming more optimistic that the PLD will actually win (as long as the cardinal continues to denounce Hippo), but let's not expect to see much improvement in the economy for at least a few years. The mess left behind by Hippo cannot be straightened out in 4 short years. In addition this PLD is a very different PLD from the one that governed 4 years ago. They know the reason they lost last time is because they didn't "spread the wealth" around, so expect cronyism (botellas) to continue. Expect the PLD to start looking more like the PRD with thousands of people being "helped" in exchange for loyalty to the party.
 

Robert

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Jan 2, 1999
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suarezn said:
They know the reason they lost last time is because they didn't "spread the wealth" around, so expect cronyism (botellas) to continue. Expect the PLD to start looking more like the PRD with thousands of people being "helped" in exchange for loyalty to the party.

I think it was more to do with the candidate than the handouts.
Do you think Leonel would have won in 2000 if he was allowed to run?

I do agree that with a PRD controlled "almost everything" then he may have problems. Maybe he will just have to up the bribes. The only reason the congress exists right now is to legalize corruption.
 

samiam

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Mar 5, 2003
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I agree with you Suarezn, the politics of the PLD will be different from their first time around and they will have to deal alot with the PPH who are going into this election guns a blazing with nothing to loose.
The thing is, just as Hippo was popular at the beginning of his government (up to 2002 where he won big time the majority of congress), and lost all his popularity in his last two years, I am afraid people will be less tolerant of Leonel if things dont improve. Remember it is the PRD who controls the masses too, I mean the masses that make huelgas and riots, the same masses that have benefitted from the Plan Renove are they going to sit by and let leonel have a smooth ride on his first 4 years.
I am just upset we are setting ourselves up for diaspointment......or I just woke up a pesimist today.
 

Chirimoya

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Dec 9, 2002
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It was the combination of a lacklustre PLD candidate and the fact that there was a wave of sympathy for the PRD following the death of Pe?a Gomez.

Isn't it true that the sickness goes far deeper than the current bunch of crooks in power? That the nation seems to go through a cycle of high hopes, bitter disappointment and angry rejection of every government, every single time?

Voting this lot out will not end clientilism, corruption or ignorance. Anyone who believes that is deluded.

Chiri
 

Camachosoft

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Nov 18, 2003
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In the 2000 election Hippo win with 49.9% of the votes, BUT only voted the 60% of the people avaliable to vote (like all the elections). This time a lot of people will not vote for Leonel specifically, they will vote AGAINST Hippo, and a BIG % of the 40% of people avaliable to vote that NEVER vote in a election will go this time against Hippo.

That is the big problem of Hippo, people dont want him, and all than "silent" voters will vote against him.

So, 49.9% of 60% = 25%. That is the real "hard votes" that the PRD have.

peace

(sorry for my english)