2004 Hurricane Predictions

XanaduRanch

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Sep 15, 2002
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Dr. William M. Gray said:
The recent upturn in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity which began in 1995 is expected to continue in 2004. We anticipate an above average probability for Atlantic basin major hurricanes and U.S. major hurricane landfall.
Here's Colorado State University's current estimates for the 2004 Season, which begins on June 1, 2004. Time flies when you're having fun!

Named Storms (9.6) 13
Named Storm Days (49.1) 55
Hurricanes (5.9) 7
Hurricane Days (24.5) 30
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) 3
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) 6
Hurricane Destruction Potential (72.7) 85
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%) 125
Numbers in Paranthesis () indicate 1950-2000 Averages

The full report can be viewed here.

Tom aka XR Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive anyway.
 

Tony C

Silver
Jan 1, 2002
2,262
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www.sfmreport.com
That guy has one of the biggest scams going.
He comes out with his predictions then "modifies" them over the course of the season. Of course after the modifications he is always right even though his original predictions are always wrong
 

XanaduRanch

*** Sin Bin ***
Sep 15, 2002
2,493
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Ouch!

Tony C said:
That guy has one of the biggest scams going. He comes out with his predictions then "modifies" them over the course of the season. Of course after the modifications he is always right even though his original predictions are always wrong
Welcome to my world!

That's a standard complaint with most weather or climate predictions. However, all of the previous predictions are always posted there to see, so it's easy to go back and look at their forecast in December, then in May, and so on. It's not hidden. Overall, compared to other hurricane season forecasts I have not found his to be any worse than any of the others.

What happens is that, for reasons we really don't understand very well yet, small changes in seemingly unrelated systems, like the El Nino, the Gulf Stream, water salinity, etc. can happen very rapidly, over periods of just days. Many of these things have severe effects on hurricane formation, so a slight unforseen event like that can really stand a previous prediction on its head, to be sure.
 

Rocky

Honorificabilitudinitatibus
Apr 4, 2002
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www.rockysbar.com
The last big one

tired_boy said:
When was the last time a major hurricane affected the DR?
Santo Domingo took a pretty big hit a few years back, but I have never seen one here on the North Coast in the 13 years living here.
Marco.
 

IslandAnne

New member
Apr 30, 2004
1
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October Hurricanes in Negril

XanaduRanch said:
Welcome to my world!

That's a standard complaint with most weather or climate predictions. However, all of the previous predictions are always posted there to see, so it's easy to go back and look at their forecast in December, then in May, and so on. It's not hidden. Overall, compared to other hurricane season forecasts I have not found his to be any worse than any of the others.

What happens is that, for reasons we really don't understand very well yet, small changes in seemingly unrelated systems, like the El Nino, the Gulf Stream, water salinity, etc. can happen very rapidly, over periods of just days. Many of these things have severe effects on hurricane formation, so a slight unforseen event like that can really stand a previous prediction on its head, to be sure.
Going to Negril early in October. Am I insane?
 

Dolores1

DR1
May 3, 2000
8,215
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www.
Please remember that dr1 is a Dominican-related forum. Negril is in Jamaica, but in the Caribbean as the DR is. Regarding hurricanes, which applies to any place in the Caribbean, please check out the above links on hurricanes to answer your question. Regarding the DR, as far as I can remember, there has not been a hurricane to hit this country in October in modern days. The links will confirm this information. For Jamaica, you need to check a Jamaican site.
 

Rocky

Honorificabilitudinitatibus
Apr 4, 2002
13,993
208
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www.rockysbar.com
Hurricanes in the DR

Dolores said:
Please remember that dr1 is a Dominican-related forum. Negril is in Jamaica, but in the Caribbean as the DR is. Regarding hurricanes, which applies to any place in the Caribbean, please check out the above links on hurricanes to answer your question. Regarding the DR, as far as I can remember, there has not been a hurricane to hit this country in October in modern days. The links will confirm this information. For Jamaica, you need to check a Jamaican site.

I thought there were no more hurricanes, now that XR has moved on...
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
18,948
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He's gone to a new site

called drsol.com(?) or .net(?) I forget which. Much like this place.

As for North Coast hurricanes, in my (OH MY GOD) 42 years of experience there have been no hurricanes bothering the North Coast. At least the area arond Puerto Plata and forty kilometers either way. Saman? was hurt by HUGO, and Montecristi was hurt by flooding resulting from David in '79

The last hurricane to do serious damage here was GEORGES which ripped up the South Coast pretty badly and caused very serious flooding inthe South and Central Valley of San Juan de la Maguana, killing hundreds, and displacing thousands.

This is not something that can be predicted with great accuracy, and the best thing is to be prepared when there is a 'possibility' of a storm. Water, flashlights, fuel, a radio, back up power if possible and non-perishable foodstuffs and so forth.

You should certainly never lose any sleep over it.

HB

BESIDES THEY ARE FUN!!