My theory is that if a hurricane is in the area, one has to closely monitor it and be ready to rapidly implement plans to prepare for the worst. But like many weather enthusiasts, always find interesting the differences in the forecast models that we can observe online.
For instance, notice that the BAM Medium has Tropical Depression 11 (TSJeanne) moving through the DR. See http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
In the case of Hurricane Ivan, the UKMet forecast was different than the NOAA, when they said it would keep a westernly track, as it eventually did.
Found this link that explains the methods, but at some point, maybe our weather experts could put this into simple language.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm
For instance, notice that the BAM Medium has Tropical Depression 11 (TSJeanne) moving through the DR. See http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
In the case of Hurricane Ivan, the UKMet forecast was different than the NOAA, when they said it would keep a westernly track, as it eventually did.
Found this link that explains the methods, but at some point, maybe our weather experts could put this into simple language.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm