Advice on when to change US$ for pesos

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
We are in the process of buying an apto in Arroyo Hondo and we have paid about half as a deposit already. The question I would like advice on is ; When would be the best time to change the balance in US$ for pesos ? Does anyone have any projections as to the likely direction of the peso/dollar exchange rate. If the peso is likely to move down against the dollar obviously it would be best for me to wait until it has done so. Any ideas would be appreciated. Current rate is about 37 to 1.

Cheers Paul :devious:
 

Ken

Platinum
Jan 1, 2002
13,884
495
83
If anybody has any hard info on this, I'd also be interested. My guess is that there isn't going to be much change in the short term. Long term depends on how the Leonel administration manages the economy, electricity situation,etc. If there are major problems, the peso will fall, if he gets things stabilized and improvements are noted, then the peso could strengthen even more.

Even though I live here, I am hoping for the latter. Life is a lot better for everyone when the peso is stable and Dominicans have enough money to meet at least their basic needs.
 

bienvenido

New member
Sep 5, 2004
78
0
0
67
Check the localnews and economic analysts in channel 45 9-10 am Economia y mercado.

Freemo said:
We are in the process of buying an apto in Arroyo Hondo and we have paid about half as a deposit already. The question I would like advice on is ; When would be the best time to change the balance in US$ for pesos ? Does anyone have any projections as to the likely direction of the peso/dollar exchange rate. If the peso is likely to move down against the dollar obviously it would be best for me to wait until it has done so. Any ideas would be appreciated. Current rate is about 37 to 1.

Cheers Paul :devious:

There may be a few poltical events that may affect exchange rate in a few months, that is, the monetary reform bill and the payments of external debts which are all in USD. That will come in effect in the next coming months or before december. I do not think that it will go further down. Since you investing a large quantity of money, you best bet is to play by ear and act quickly. You already put a down payment, now wait if you can, but act quick because when dollars is up interest go up as well.

Get to know your neighbor as quickly as possible they will be part of your safety net in case of emergency. Good Luck!
 

Jozee74

New member
Sep 3, 2004
290
0
0
49
Confused

Freemo said:
We are in the process of buying an apto in Arroyo Hondo and we have paid about half as a deposit already. The question I would like advice on is ; When would be the best time to change the balance in US$ for pesos ? Does anyone have any projections as to the likely direction of the peso/dollar exchange rate. If the peso is likely to move down against the dollar obviously it would be best for me to wait until it has done so. Any ideas would be appreciated. Current rate is about 37 to 1.

Cheers Paul :devious:

I thought it is best to exchange the dollar when the Peso is at his highest? Am I correct?? it has gotten to the point that alot of business there prefer to deal with dollars than pesos.....anyone correct me if I am wrong.
 

Criss Colon

Platinum
Jan 2, 2002
21,843
191
0
38
yahoomail.com
During December,the US Dollar usually looses value against the peso.

This is due to all the Dollars coming into the country for Christmas and New Years.
Watch and see if the DR can make it's International Loan payments in the next month and a half.If the default,the value of the peso will fall.

Disclaimer: If anyone really could predict,they would be a millionare,a ;) nd not wasting time on DR1! CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
Thats what the wife said

Criss

My wife mentioned the December thing with the Dollars coming in, nice to have it backed-up. She's pretty cute with money, guess it comes from having none for so long.

Will hang it out till December if possible. Thanks to all for the info.

As to whether being a millionaire would mean saying goodbye to DR1, I seriously doubt it. For me it's about feeling part of the island and it's goings on whilst still having to be couped up in 'old grey skies' Britain.

Talk about planning well in advance of moving to the DR, me and mine have been planning for about 3 years now and I think we're still a couple of years from taking the plunge.

Cheers Paul
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
Confused

Jozee74 said:
I thought it is best to exchange the dollar when the Peso is at his highest? Am I correct?? it has gotten to the point that alot of business there prefer to deal with dollars than pesos.....anyone correct me if I am wrong.


Hi Jozee74

Yes, you're right. Sadly for the economy, outside investors in real estate benefit from the weaker peso. We are buying before construction is complete and in doing so get quite a nice discount. The developer prefers being paid in pesos, for his own reasons, as a result we need to chose the best moment to change up our dollars.

Paul
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
Thanks for the advice...

bienvenido said:
There may be a few poltical events that may affect exchange rate in a few months, that is, the monetary reform bill and the payments of external debts which are all in USD. That will come in effect in the next coming months or before december. I do not think that it will go further down. Since you investing a large quantity of money, you best bet is to play by ear and act quickly. You already put a down payment, now wait if you can, but act quick because when dollars is up interest go up as well.

Get to know your neighbor as quickly as possible they will be part of your safety net in case of emergency. Good Luck!

Bienvenido

I don't have access to the channels you mention, being based in the UK. However I will keep an eye on DR1 news for the up-coming debt payment. I don't have to worry about interest rates going up as I don't borrow from any banks over there thank god.

Many thanks Paul
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
Yes, the peso needs badly to stabilize.

Ken said:
If anybody has any hard info on this, I'd also be interested. My guess is that there isn't going to be much change in the short term. Long term depends on how the Leonel administration manages the economy, electricity situation,etc. If there are major problems, the peso will fall, if he gets things stabilized and improvements are noted, then the peso could strengthen even more.

Even though I live here, I am hoping for the latter. Life is a lot better for everyone when the peso is stable and Dominicans have enough money to meet at least their basic needs.


My wife has just returned from Santo Domingo after sorting out some business affairs, and she was shocked at the change since she was last there a couple of years ago. She said there was a noticeable feeling of desperation about the poorer people, after all they are the ones who really suffer when the peso hits the floor. We are lucky enough to be in a position of sitting back and choosing the right economic climate before moving to the DR. We don't have to worry about the price of bread and milk going up and up. Most of her family are very poor and she says that the last 5 years or so have taken a toll on even their seemingly un-breakable spirits.

I will take advantage of the peso dropping, of course, but fully intend to do as much as I can to help her extended family when we move out there, short of course of putting us on the breadline also.

If the peso continues to strengthen, so be it, I won't be that upset, the country will be the better for it in the long run.

Paul
 

dawnwil

Bronze
Aug 27, 2003
722
4
0
Freemo said:
Criss

Will hang it out till December if possible.

Cheers Paul

Hey Paul, perhaps I'm misunderstanding the above sentence, but it reads as if you will wait until December to change your US dollars to pesos.

If so, you have it backwards... Criss said the value of the dollar falls against the peso in December because there are too many dollars. eg. maybe you will get 30 pesos for each dollar, or 32. At the moment, we're getting about 37 pesos for each dollar.

Which means the dollar is higher now, and to exchange now would mean more pesos for each dollar.

But, as he said, this is all just guesswork. Historically, the peso has strengthened against the dollar in December. Other factors this year might mean the opposite.

Perhaps you could hedge the exchange? Change 50% of what's remaining now, and hold the rest. Then you'll either be averaging up or down, but splitting the risk at least.
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
I'm confused now

dawnwil said:
Hey Paul, perhaps I'm misunderstanding the above sentence, but it reads as if you will wait until December to change your US dollars to pesos.

If so, you have it backwards... Criss said the value of the dollar falls against the peso in December because there are too many dollars. eg. maybe you will get 30 pesos for each dollar, or 32. At the moment, we're getting about 37 pesos for each dollar.

Which means the dollar is higher now, and to exchange now would mean more pesos for each dollar.

But, as he said, this is all just guesswork. Historically, the peso has strengthened against the dollar in December. Other factors this year might mean the opposite.

Perhaps you could hedge the exchange? Change 50% of what's remaining now, and hold the rest. Then you'll either be averaging up or down, but splitting the risk at least.

I thought Criss meant that the dollar would weaken in December, hence more pesos for the dollar. Sh*t I better get this right. Criss help !

Can you spell it out any plainer for an Old ex Leper ?

Nice one Dawnwil
 

johne

Silver
Jun 28, 2003
7,090
2,963
113
Freemo-I have a question for you

Freemo-I tried your PM but it is blocked. I am involved in a project in Arroyo Hondo and have several questions that you might be able to help me with.Could you contact me by PM ? I also can offer some advise regarding your question on the currency exchange.
JOHN
 

suarezn

Gold
Feb 3, 2002
5,823
290
0
55
Freemo said:
I thought Criss meant that the dollar would weaken in December, hence more pesos for the dollar. Sh*t I better get this right. Criss help !

Can you spell it out any plainer for an Old ex Leper ?

Nice one Dawnwil

Freemo: That's exactly what Criss said. The dollar should WEAKEN in December. This means the dollars you are holding now would be worth LESS in December (assuming things go as usual). So selling in December is NOT a good idea, if you can sell any other time. The reason is that there are MANY PEOPLE selling THEIR dollars about that time, thus there are more dollars available on the street and consequently less demand. Hope this cleared it up for you.
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
Yes I finally got the message

suarezn said:
Freemo: That's exactly what Criss said. The dollar should WEAKEN in December. This means the dollars you are holding now would be worth LESS in December (assuming things go as usual). So selling in December is NOT a good idea, if you can sell any other time. The reason is that there are MANY PEOPLE selling THEIR dollars about that time, thus there are more dollars available on the street and consequently less demand. Hope this cleared it up for you.

Yes I finally got it, thanks for the explanation.

Paul
 

mondongo

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
1,533
6
38
seasonal factors on exchange rates

Over the last 4 years, the US$ bouhgt more DR$ in December that in October. The 10 years prior to that, the difference in October/December exchange rates has been minimal.

When the exchange rate is very stable, seasonal factors then have a noticeable effect, otherwise macroeconomic factors largely dominate.

Conclusion: the data do not support basing your decision on seasonal factors.
 

Gringo

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
1,314
58
0
Last Jan 03/04

mondongo said:
Over the last 4 years, the US$ bouhgt more DR$ in December that in October. The 10 years prior to that, the difference in October/December exchange rates has been minimal.

When the exchange rate is very stable, seasonal factors then have a noticeable effect, otherwise macroeconomic factors largely dominate.

Conclusion: the data do not support basing your decision on seasonal factors.

Hillbilly Reported Peso @ 47.00, Look up search Jan./03/04.

Gringo
 

Freemo

New member
May 26, 2003
314
14
0
I have PM'd you John

johne said:
Freemo-I tried your PM but it is blocked. I am involved in a project in Arroyo Hondo and have several questions that you might be able to help me with.Could you contact me by PM ? I also can offer some advise regarding your question on the currency exchange.
JOHN


John

You shouldn't have trouble PM'ing me - I've sent you one anyway.

Paul
 

karenssp

New member
Jul 28, 2004
128
0
0
Savings Account

We have a US$ and a DR$ savings account. We would like to deposit money into our accounts, once we return home. Can someone give me some advice if they have done this, and how does it work. I know you have to go to the bank etc. What I'm asking is if we send X amount of $ can we be sure the money will be in our account. Will the bank send us statements? HELP if you know.
 
Last edited: