Dollar goes below 30 pesos

Simon & Nicky

Bronze
Feb 3, 2004
655
14
0
www.simon-hall.co.uk
Big mouth stikes again. I spent last night explaining that I really thought that the floor had been reached for the time being and that less than 30 pesos would be a mountain to climb.

I'll stick to hypnosis in future. - Can I remind you all while I'm sober to never on any account pay any attention to my foreign exchange ideas no matter how plausible if I have a bottle of beer in my hand at the time. Now, where did I put that slice of humble pie?
 

NALs

Economist by Profession
Jan 20, 2003
13,368
3,150
113
! !

S & N, you don't need to discredit your own self! All you need to do is tweek your way of thought a little bit. Always remember in your mind that:

- Absolutely (and I mean this) anything can happen at anytime at anywhere.
The reason I say this is because many people discredit an idea or theory or prediction simply because in their mind its "impossible" for such thing to happen for whatever reason. The reasons could range from "its not the right time" to "its simply impossible". The reality is that anything can happen at any time any where, end of story. Look, the DR economy is growing again, the first time this is happening this millenium or in other words, the first time it grows since Hipolito decided to kill the economy.

I knew we were going to be more or less in the economic position we are today before August and the changing of hands. Of course, things are turning out better than I predicted, the economy is now expected to end with a 1% growth this year, better than the 0% growth I was predicting, and a lot better than the IMF prediction of negative 1% decline.

The Peso has shoked all those people who were setting themselves up to be shocked, I've been saying this all along, that the Peso will fall once Leonel take control. Of course, I've been rediculed, but I don't hear them now.

The samething with the price levels, I've been saying that the prices will begin to start to fall once the population feels comfortable accepting the new exchange rate as "real" and not temporary, of course many people argued the opposite, but I still stand by what I have said and guess what, it's starting to show in certain sectors within the sectors of the DR economy.

Absolutely anything can happen, keep that always in mind.

- Make predictions on your gut instinct, not on your logic.
This is the real key to always being right in your predictions. Don't make a prediction until you truly believe in your gut feelings that it will come true. Listen, I had instinct that Bush was going to win and guess what, he did. I had instincts that Hipolito was going to go and that there was going to be none of the hype that appeared on DR1 about possible military interventions, etc. I had an instinct in the current recovery of the DR economy and guess what, its happening.

Learn to trust your instinct, it never ever ever lies or betrays you, in fact most people betray their instinct and then they fail in what ever they were doing, gee go figure. Most of the times (unless its a life and death deal) its hard to get a gut feeling on most issues, but you just have to be patient and not try to fool yourself into believing in what you WANT to happen, rather in what you know WILL happen. That is the key to being overwhelmiingly right in any prediction.

- Have lots of patience.
Many people just don't have patience. You will get criticized up to your eyeballs, you will be discredited (or at least people will attempt to discredit you), and you will be painted as a liar, a wishful thinker, etc etc etc. Just have patience, put your prediction forward, and STICK BY IT. If you did your prediction correctly, it will come true (with out fail) and soon you will be preparing all those criticizing words into a nice paella of words so those who criticized you can eat them!

Plus, because of the well done and very accurate prediction, your credit worthyness among those who read your posts will increase, that is even better when people discredit you before the facts and then, wham. Reality hits with making your prediction true, then you'll notice that the criticism stops and you were right, again.

- Make sure you have good facts and don't rely on internet sources.

And last, make sure your information is legitimate and its on hardcopy or at least, on paper. Don't use internet sources for your prediction, however use them to cite on DR1 so that people can quickly get an idea of the type of facts you are using, but always use facts on hard copy.

The truth is that if you don't know the past, there is little chance you will predict the future.

There is so much truth in that as long that you also remember that past performance is no idication of future performance. Hmm, seems contradicting?

Trust me, its not. If you dig into history to find your answers for the future, that is fine, just don't be too sure about it. Its good to have the history in the back of your mind, but don't base your predictions purely on it and if your guts tell you otherwise what you have learned from history, or books, or theories, believe your gut above everything because it is almost always right.

The biggest problem with most people is knowning when their gut is "telling them" something.

All you have to put attention to are those ideas that pop in your mind about what might happen and you get a strong gut feeling reaction while thinking of that as a possibility of happening. Afterwards, search current facts to justify your prediction and then, wait until the right time to make the prediction. Once you make it, stick by it all the way and then bam, it happens and you were right.

This is why 9 out of every 10 prediction I make, especially in my specialty which is economics, I end up being right, with out fail.
 

DR Mpe

Banned
Mar 31, 2003
1,191
36
48
Nal0whs said:
S & N, you don't need to discredit your own self! All you need to do is tweek your way of thought a little bit. Always remember in your mind that:

- Absolutely (and I mean this) anything can happen at anytime at anywhere.
The reason I say this is because many people discredit an idea or theory or prediction simply because in their mind its "impossible" for such thing to happen for whatever reason. The reasons could range from "its not the right time" to "its simply impossible". The reality is that anything can happen at any time any where, end of story. Look, the DR economy is growing again, the first time this is happening this millenium or in other words, the first time it grows since Hipolito decided to kill the economy.

I knew we were going to be more or less in the economic position we are today before August and the changing of hands. Of course, things are turning out better than I predicted, the economy is now expected to end with a 1% growth this year, better than the 0% growth I was predicting, and a lot better than the IMF prediction of negative 1% decline.

The Peso has shoked all those people who were setting themselves up to be shocked, I've been saying this all along, that the Peso will fall once Leonel take control. Of course, I've been rediculed, but I don't hear them now.

The samething with the price levels, I've been saying that the prices will begin to start to fall once the population feels comfortable accepting the new exchange rate as "real" and not temporary, of course many people argued the opposite, but I still stand by what I have said and guess what, it's starting to show in certain sectors within the sectors of the DR economy.

Absolutely anything can happen, keep that always in mind.

- Make predictions on your gut instinct, not on your logic.
This is the real key to always being right in your predictions. Don't make a prediction until you truly believe in your gut feelings that it will come true. Listen, I had instinct that Bush was going to win and guess what, he did. I had instincts that Hipolito was going to go and that there was going to be none of the hype that appeared on DR1 about possible military interventions, etc. I had an instinct in the current recovery of the DR economy and guess what, its happening.

Learn to trust your instinct, it never ever ever lies or betrays you, in fact most people betray their instinct and then they fail in what ever they were doing, gee go figure. Most of the times (unless its a life and death deal) its hard to get a gut feeling on most issues, but you just have to be patient and not try to fool yourself into believing in what you WANT to happen, rather in what you know WILL happen. That is the key to being overwhelmiingly right in any prediction.

- Have lots of patience.
Many people just don't have patience. You will get criticized up to your eyeballs, you will be discredited (or at least people will attempt to discredit you), and you will be painted as a liar, a wishful thinker, etc etc etc. Just have patience, put your prediction forward, and STICK BY IT. If you did your prediction correctly, it will come true (with out fail) and soon you will be preparing all those criticizing words into a nice paella of words so those who criticized you can eat them!

Plus, because of the well done and very accurate prediction, your credit worthyness among those who read your posts will increase, that is even better when people discredit you before the facts and then, wham. Reality hits with making your prediction true, then you'll notice that the criticism stops and you were right, again.

- Make sure you have good facts and don't rely on internet sources.

And last, make sure your information is legitimate and its on hardcopy or at least, on paper. Don't use internet sources for your prediction, however use them to cite on DR1 so that people can quickly get an idea of the type of facts you are using, but always use facts on hard copy.

The truth is that if you don't know the past, there is little chance you will predict the future.

There is so much truth in that as long that you also remember that past performance is no idication of future performance. Hmm, seems contradicting?

Trust me, its not. If you dig into history to find your answers for the future, that is fine, just don't be too sure about it. Its good to have the history in the back of your mind, but don't base your predictions purely on it and if your guts tell you otherwise what you have learned from history, or books, or theories, believe your gut above everything because it is almost always right.

The biggest problem with most people is knowning when their gut is "telling them" something.

All you have to put attention to are those ideas that pop in your mind about what might happen and you get a strong gut feeling reaction while thinking of that as a possibility of happening. Afterwards, search current facts to justify your prediction and then, wait until the right time to make the prediction. Once you make it, stick by it all the way and then bam, it happens and you were right.

This is why 9 out of every 10 prediction I make, especially in my specialty which is economics, I end up being right, with out fail.


90% of the times correct prediction? Please tell me what is going to happen with the dollar!
 

Buck69

Member
Jul 29, 2004
86
0
18
FXConverter - 164 Currency Converter Results
Friday, November 5, 2004
1 US Dollar = 31.07000 Dominican R. Peso
1 Dominican R. Peso (DOP) = 0.03219 US Dollar (USD)

Median price = 29.07000 / 31.07000 (bid/ask)
Minimum price = 29.05000 / 30.27500
Maximum price = 29.15600 / 31.07000

Rate for previous day



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gerd

Member
Jan 10, 2002
289
0
16
Predictions

I have noticed, that those folks who make preditions, always have perfect explanations, why their predictions failed.
 

Toronto2inDR

New member
Jun 10, 2004
208
0
0
www.legendhomesnorthcoast.com
Before I could offer everyone 100% reliability on my predictions. It was a very simple system. Just do the opposite of what I say and you are sure to come out on top.

Lately the system has not been working because I?ve reversed psychologied myself in to thinking that if I do the opposite myself I could get it right too but sure enough that hasn?t worked. Oh well, back to the 8 ball.
 

NALs

Economist by Profession
Jan 20, 2003
13,368
3,150
113
For the skeptics, just try what I proposed here.

It works for me!

Try it on your own and don't try to manipulate your feelings or anything towards a given result, just be honest with your inner self when making a prediction about something.

Keep in mind, you need good data to make such predictions because thinking rather than guessing is essential.

Just try it on your own first.

What do you have to lose?

Just try it!
 

cork

New member
Aug 23, 2003
248
0
0
get used to it

badpiece33 said:
The Dollar keeps dropping but all the prices in DR are still as if the peso were at 45-1 This can't be good for anyone unless they adjust the prices of goods and services back down to lower levels.
Badpiece :(


The reason the prices haven't dropped is the retailers knew about the minimum wage going up. If they had dropped their prices when the dollar dropped, they would have had to increase their prices to cover the new minimum wages. The government gets their percentage of the sales so they did not want the prices to drop either.

cork
 

liam1

Bronze
Jun 9, 2004
843
30
28
10% today!!!??? more like 0.73%. but yes, the dollar is being hit hard across the board.
 

GOLFGUY

New member
Oct 25, 2004
39
2
0
Greedy Gringos

As a Gringo Santiaguero, I find it repulsive that all I ever read is complaints about the exchange rate. Have you ever bothered to look past your selfish greed to consider the plight of the average Dominican. In the past year, while YOUR dollar has gone from 20 to 55, the price of eggs, platanos and chickens have more than TRIPLED. But I guess you probably don't know this (or WANT to know). The real treasure of this country is not just in the beaches or the mountains or the putas that cater to you, but in the people that live their whole lives here, the people you pass in the airport or on the highway or that serve you in the restaurant that they could never afford. The only thing that makes me sick of this country is the extrangueros that come and go, taking all that is pleasing and leaving behind (or perhaps never even considering) a people of less fortune that know nothing of the world outside, and perhaps are better for it. For all your great worldliness, you can't even see what's beyond your own nose and right in front of your own eyes.
 
GOLFGUY said:
As a Gringo Santiaguero, I find it repulsive that all I ever read is complaints about the exchange rate. Have you ever bothered to look past your selfish greed to consider the plight of the average Dominican. In the past year, while YOUR dollar has gone from 20 to 55, the price of eggs, platanos and chickens have more than TRIPLED. But I guess you probably don't know this (or WANT to know). The real treasure of this country is not just in the beaches or the mountains or the putas that cater to you, but in the people that live their whole lives here, the people you pass in the airport or on the highway or that serve you in the restaurant that they could never afford. The only thing that makes me sick of this country is the extrangueros that come and go, taking all that is pleasing and leaving behind (or perhaps never even considering) a people of less fortune that know nothing of the world outside, and perhaps are better for it. For all your great worldliness, you can't even see what's beyond your own nose and right in front of your own eyes.

And your point is?
 

El Belga

New member
Feb 17, 2004
74
0
0
61
www.betranslated.com
It seems Golfguy did not get everything...

GOLFGUY said:
As a Gringo Santiaguero, I find it repulsive that all I ever read is complaints about the exchange rate. Have you ever bothered to look past your selfish greed to consider the plight of the average Dominican. In the past year, while YOUR dollar has gone from 20 to 55, the price of eggs, platanos and chickens have more than TRIPLED. But I guess you probably don't know this (or WANT to know). The real treasure of this country is not just in the beaches or the mountains or the putas that cater to you, but in the people that live their whole lives here, the people you pass in the airport or on the highway or that serve you in the restaurant that they could never afford. The only thing that makes me sick of this country is the extrangueros that come and go, taking all that is pleasing and leaving behind (or perhaps never even considering) a people of less fortune that know nothing of the world outside, and perhaps are better for it. For all your great worldliness, you can't even see what's beyond your own nose and right in front of your own eyes.


Please, stop writing bullshit!!!!! I live in Santiago, DR, I am self employed and give work to dozens of people here and in other countries. I maintain my family (my wife, who is Dominican, and our 2 kids) and help my wife's family. I employ 2 people at home. I spend more than 5 middle class family do in rental, purchase, car, gas etc. And most of the expats in DR do the same (I'm not talking about the few rubbish who are just here for Presidente beer and whores).

If this country can live or survive it's for a large part thanks to the money "gringos" like me (although I'm not a real gringo, I'm European, from Belgium) spend here, whether they are in holiday or live here. If life become as expensive here as it is in London, New York or Tokyo, who will come ? Let's make a bet : tourism was pretty better off since 2 years. Do you really think these tourists will come back if this costs them 40 % more than 4 months ago ? There will be a huge crisis in tourism, Sosua and some other smallest tourist towns will be as empty as 3 years ago. And who will suffer from this ? Not really the expats, but the Dominicans : if there is no tourists, there is no cash, so companies will have to fire their Dominican employees. Those employees won't have enough money to buy things at the colmado that will close etc...

With this f... exchange rate dropping like hell and prices remaining at the same level, I lost round 40% of my purchasing power in 2 months. And I think I must feel happy : althought this makes quite a lot of money, I still have enough to live well, which is not the case of many Dominicans who rely on the money sent by relatives in the US or depending on tourism. Who's gonna tip them as before ? Who cared leaving 50 pesos when this was just 1 buck ? Now, it's almost 2. So they will receive 25 pesos. But prices remain the same, so they will have less. It seems so obvious that I do not know how you can't see this...
If I have to reduce my expenses, my family won't really notice it, but a lot of people I am helping will, my people will always have the priority !
So please once again stop your pseudo humanitarian speech and open your eyes or your mind !

By the way, if you're so close to Dominicans, you should learn Spanish and how to spell correctly the word "extrangueros" (1st lesson : write 10 times "extranjeros"). Understanding people ALSO means understand their culture, their language and be able to communicate properly with them.
 

Stephan

New member
Jun 20, 2004
68
0
0
veinard said:
... yep, a harsh statement, but something really worth to consider !!! I am European (German) and due to my very own experience to have lived in former Eastern Germany till 1989 when the wall came down, I have this double-side experience to know the advantages as well as the drawbacks of two different societies being strongly opposed to each other ... and even though, I don't wish back my life in former Eastern Germany, I also strongly feel something got lost with me ... among them that in today's world too many things - as far as I perceive things - are valued in money terms ... I often ask myself why ?! Since, I have a different experience ... still, I don't have a satisfying answer to my question :-( ...

Benny

The warmth of socialism still to be found in CUBA... give it a try :devious:
 
El Belga said:
Please, stop writing bullshit!!!!! I live in Santiago, DR, I am self employed and give work to dozens of people here and in other countries. I maintain my family (my wife, who is Dominican, and our 2 kids) and help my wife's family. I employ 2 people at home. I spend more than 5 middle class family do in rental, purchase, car, gas etc. And most of the expats in DR do the same (I'm not talking about the few rubbish who are just here for Presidente beer and whores).

If this country can live or survive it's for a large part thanks to the money "gringos" like me (although I'm not a real gringo, I'm European, from Belgium) spend here, whether they are in holiday or live here. If life become as expensive here as it is in London, New York or Tokyo, who will come ? Let's make a bet : tourism was pretty better off since 2 years. Do you really think these tourists will come back if this costs them 40 % more than 4 months ago ? There will be a huge crisis in tourism, Sosua and some other smallest tourist towns will be as empty as 3 years ago. And who will suffer from this ? Not really the expats, but the Dominicans : if there is no tourists, there is no cash, so companies will have to fire their Dominican employees. Those employees won't have enough money to buy things at the colmado that will close etc...

With this f... exchange rate dropping like hell and prices remaining at the same level, I lost round 40% of my purchasing power in 2 months. And I think I must feel happy : althought this makes quite a lot of money, I still have enough to live well, which is not the case of many Dominicans who rely on the money sent by relatives in the US or depending on tourism. Who's gonna tip them as before ? Who cared leaving 50 pesos when this was just 1 buck ? Now, it's almost 2. So they will receive 25 pesos. But prices remain the same, so they will have less. It seems so obvious that I do not know how you can't see this...
If I have to reduce my expenses, my family won't really notice it, but a lot of people I am helping will, my people will always have the priority !
So please once again stop your pseudo humanitarian speech and open your eyes or your mind !

By the way, if you're so close to Dominicans, you should learn Spanish and how to spell correctly the word "extrangueros" (1st lesson : write 10 times "extranjeros"). Understanding people ALSO means understand their culture, their language and be able to communicate properly with them.

Right on Belga if the prices remain this high against the dollar the Dominican people will suffer the most, I have been traveling to DR on a monthly basis but after this last trip I can no longer do it if the prices remain so high.
Badpiece :(
 

DominicanScotty

On Vacation!
Jun 12, 2004
1,300
2
0
64
Not a gringo????

El Belga said:
Please, stop writing bullshit!!!!! I live in Santiago, DR, I am self employed and give work to dozens of people here and in other countries. I maintain my family (my wife, who is Dominican, and our 2 kids) and help my wife's family. I employ 2 people at home. I spend more than 5 middle class family do in rental, purchase, car, gas etc. And most of the expats in DR do the same (I'm not talking about the few rubbish who are just here for Presidente beer and whores).

If this country can live or survive it's for a large part thanks to the money "gringos" like me (although I'm not a real gringo, I'm European, from Belgium) spend here, whether they are in holiday or live here. If life become as expensive here as it is in London, New York or Tokyo, who will come ? Let's make a bet : tourism was pretty better off since 2 years. Do you really think these tourists will come back if this costs them 40 % more than 4 months ago ? There will be a huge crisis in tourism, Sosua and some other smallest tourist towns will be as empty as 3 years ago. And who will suffer from this ? Not really the expats, but the Dominicans : if there is no tourists, there is no cash, so companies will have to fire their Dominican employees. Those employees won't have enough money to buy things at the colmado that will close etc...

With this f... exchange rate dropping like hell and prices remaining at the same level, I lost round 40% of my purchasing power in 2 months. And I think I must feel happy : althought this makes quite a lot of money, I still have enough to live well, which is not the case of many Dominicans who rely on the money sent by relatives in the US or depending on tourism. Who's gonna tip them as before ? Who cared leaving 50 pesos when this was just 1 buck ? Now, it's almost 2. So they will receive 25 pesos. But prices remain the same, so they will have less. It seems so obvious that I do not know how you can't see this...
If I have to reduce my expenses, my family won't really notice it, but a lot of people I am helping will, my people will always have the priority !
So please once again stop your pseudo humanitarian speech and open your eyes or your mind !

By the way, if you're so close to Dominicans, you should learn Spanish and how to spell correctly the word "extrangueros" (1st lesson : write 10 times "extranjeros"). Understanding people ALSO means understand their culture, their language and be able to communicate properly with them.


Excuse me sir... please excuse me. You are not a what? "Gringo"? What do you mean by "not a real gringo"? What IS a REAL GRINGO? Please, don't flatter yourself because you are a European from Belgium. What are you then? Listen to this, if you are not born in the Dominican Republic, Paraguay, Bolivia, Colombia, Argentina, Equador, Peru, Mexico or any other daggone Spanish country you are a damn "gringo".

My mother was Dominican born, many people don't know this because I never told anyone. It basically isn't anyone's business! (know what I mean Chris G? Because you DON"T know the "real deal". Remember St. Joseph's home and school in Peekskill??? Remember that it was full of Spanish immigrants???) My mother was almost as white as I am but always got a beautiful bronze tan that made me jealous. I have my father's Irish skin although I too can get a nice tan if I want to bake in the sun. We (her sons) believe that she was born in the Moca area although we have no solid proof since my mom was a baby when she was brought here but fled to NY as a baby with a Catholic orphan organization during Trujillos 30+ year dictatorship. My mother passed away in 1993 without ever going back to the DR, she had no recollection of her last name so we could never find anything through the years other then she was a Dominicana. My mother wasn't interested in the DR but I was after she died. (Hence the reason why I started coming to the DR in 1994 to attempt to find my roots). So... to make a long story end, I was born here in the US and you wanna know something? I AM A DAMN GRINGO! You're not a 'real gringo'? Please don't make me laugh!

However you did make some very good points.

The problem at the moment is the AIs prices are still very good although I suspect that they too will be forced to raise them. The cheapee "gringos" from "foreign countries, including Belgium as well as the US (I suspect you meant them people) will stop coming once the price increases catch up with the AIs. Other then all of that gringo garbage I will agree with you!
 
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