From Noaa
1130 AM EST THU NOV 11 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADERS HSFAT2 AND HSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADERS FZNT02 KNHC AND FZNT01 KWBC. A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED JUST WEST OF ARUBA...IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 MPH.
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECASTER STEWART $$
Just to make some terms more understandable.... these definitions from the Noaa faq's: (I shortened them considerably - if you want to read more, go to
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html)
Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions"
Once the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) they are typically called a "tropical storm" and assigned a name.
Tropical Disturbance - A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection - generally 200 to 600 km (100 to 300 nmi) in diameter - originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more.
Tropical Depression - A tropical cyclone or storm in which the maximum sustained wind speed (using the U.S. 1 minute average standard) is 33 kt (38 mph, 17 m/s) or less. Depressions have a closed circulation.
Tropical Storm or Tropical Cyclone - maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1 minute average standard) ranges from 39 mph to 73 mph. The convection in tropical storms is usually more concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into distinct bands.
Hurricane - When winds in a tropical cyclone equal or exceed 64 kt (74 mph, 34 m/s) it is called a hurricane (in the Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific Oceans). Hurricanes are further designated by categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricanes in categories 3, 4, 5 are known as Major Hurricanes or Intense Hurricanes.
