The rains made me think about the future - Really difficult to do when you live on a Caribbean Island. The hurricane season is slowly coming closer. I'll go and wake up Ken and SaltyDawg to sharpen their weather pencils, get out their maps, charts, satellite pictures, wake up their Noaa contacts and tell us what to prepare for this year.
- Thread starter Chris
- Start date
2005 Hurricane Season
Heheh, crystal ball, no way. Anyway, here is a very good link for hurricane preparedness. http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml
Noaa should soon give us their assessment for 2005 and then we would have an idea of what we're in for.
Noaa should soon give us their assessment for 2005 and then we would have an idea of what we're in for.
Here's another good site, which will show current hurricane paths
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Especially for you guys who like to time their trips in between hurricanes.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Especially for you guys who like to time their trips in between hurricanes.
Tomorrow, with the start of Hurricane Preparedness Week, Noaa will release its predictions and outlook for the 2005 Hurricane Season. Early indications are that they are expecting a less active season than last year.
These are the 2005 names for tropical cyclones.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
A storm is named when its winds travel counterclockwise and reach 39 mph, tropical storm strength. The World Meteorological Organization with representatives from all countries affected by hurricanes, selects the names each year. The names are selected from 6 rotating, repeating lists. If a storm had devastating impact, the name is retired from the list. I was surprised to see Irene on the names list for 2005.
For the next week, we'll follow the proceedings of Hurricane Awareness week http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml
here, with the objective to have a personal Hurricane Preparedness Plan by the end of the week. Feel free to add comments. To kick off, can you answer this question....?
What are the most important Hurricane Hazards to be prepared for?
These are the 2005 names for tropical cyclones.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
A storm is named when its winds travel counterclockwise and reach 39 mph, tropical storm strength. The World Meteorological Organization with representatives from all countries affected by hurricanes, selects the names each year. The names are selected from 6 rotating, repeating lists. If a storm had devastating impact, the name is retired from the list. I was surprised to see Irene on the names list for 2005.
For the next week, we'll follow the proceedings of Hurricane Awareness week http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml
here, with the objective to have a personal Hurricane Preparedness Plan by the end of the week. Feel free to add comments. To kick off, can you answer this question....?
What are the most important Hurricane Hazards to be prepared for?
Since I live in Santiago, I don't worry too much
However, that said, there is a good list of what to do and don't do.
1) Emergency radios, flashlights, candles, canned foods & non-perishibles.
2) Plenty of bottled water.
3) Emergency supply of medicines and a first aid kit. (I got one thanks to a wonderful visitor!!)
4) If you can afford it, make sure your generator is tuned and ready to roll with spare fuels in safe, small containers out of harm's way.
5) Look in on your neighbors, too. They might not be as smart as you.
6) Dry clothes in waterproof bags can be the greatest luxury if you get hard hit.
7) HAVE A PLAN FOR EMERGENCY EVAC, if needed!
Know the "possibilities of a hurricane hitting your area:
South East of the DR: High
East Coast, from Boca del Toro to Cabrera: High to medium High
North Coast, from Cabrera West towards Montecristi: Except for wave action and rains, very low.
Far Southwest, Santo Domingo westward down to Barahona: Relatively High...
Cibao: NIL except for flooding of major rivers.
FWIW
HB
Hurricane Hazards: More than anything-> Flying objects like pieces of broken wood and sheets of tin roofing! In some areas non-native trees will be broken up and fly all over the place.
Next will be damaged water supplies.
Next is the danger of flying electricity cables
And Propane fires or even explosions..
However, that said, there is a good list of what to do and don't do.
1) Emergency radios, flashlights, candles, canned foods & non-perishibles.
2) Plenty of bottled water.
3) Emergency supply of medicines and a first aid kit. (I got one thanks to a wonderful visitor!!)
4) If you can afford it, make sure your generator is tuned and ready to roll with spare fuels in safe, small containers out of harm's way.
5) Look in on your neighbors, too. They might not be as smart as you.
6) Dry clothes in waterproof bags can be the greatest luxury if you get hard hit.
7) HAVE A PLAN FOR EMERGENCY EVAC, if needed!
Know the "possibilities of a hurricane hitting your area:
South East of the DR: High
East Coast, from Boca del Toro to Cabrera: High to medium High
North Coast, from Cabrera West towards Montecristi: Except for wave action and rains, very low.
Far Southwest, Santo Domingo westward down to Barahona: Relatively High...
Cibao: NIL except for flooding of major rivers.
FWIW
HB
Hurricane Hazards: More than anything-> Flying objects like pieces of broken wood and sheets of tin roofing! In some areas non-native trees will be broken up and fly all over the place.
Next will be damaged water supplies.
Next is the danger of flying electricity cables
And Propane fires or even explosions..
Last edited:
planner said:
Neither Chris or I will risk a prediction, but Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University make predictions each year, one toward end of March/beginning of April, and one in the not too distant future. Preliminary forecast is not good news for the folks living in the target zones on the east coast of the US.
Since I live in the Caribbean, I interpret his forecast as being rather ominous.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/april2005/
Chris, apparently you didn't check with Dr. Gray re early indications.
I guess we will also be blowing the dust off of this as well
We now have over 60 businesses participating around the DR.
http://www.dr1.com/status/index.shtml
The only online status watch service in the Caribbean.
We now have over 60 businesses participating around the DR.
http://www.dr1.com/status/index.shtml
The only online status watch service in the Caribbean.
Hey Ken, I'm simply stunned that you're reading those predictions from those guys in Colorado? Colorado, when did they ever see a hurricane? At least the guys that I read, are on the Eastern Seaboard... Here are some more predictions.. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/lofiversion/index.php/t33383.html
But I am looking forward to seeing what Noaa has to say tomorrow. The more they do their stuff, the more I like what they do.
At least the guys that I read, are on the Eastern Seaboard... Here are some more predictions.. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/lofiversion/index.php/t33383.htmlBut I am looking forward to seeing what Noaa has to say tomorrow. The more they do their stuff, the more I like what they do.
Chris said:Hey Ken, I'm simply stunned that you're reading those predictions from those guys in Colorado? Colorado, when did they ever see a hurricane?
But I am looking forward to seeing what Noaa has to say tomorrow. The more they do their stuff, the more I like what they do.
Chris, I agree there aren't many hurricanes in Colorado, but Dr. Gray has a pretty good track record.
We'll see, but even one hurricane if it hits where you are is too many.
Btw, Chris, what are Don Sutherland's credentials? Sounded to me like he has his own Xanadu.
2005 hurricane predictions will be released by NOAA at 12:30 today.
Last edited:
OK, here we have it.. another above normal hurricane season predicted. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html
SUMMARY
NOAA?s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA?s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.
The predicted 2005 activity reflects 1) an expected continuation of conditions associated with the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the expectation of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Ni?o or La Ni?a) during August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.
SUMMARY
NOAA?s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA?s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.
The predicted 2005 activity reflects 1) an expected continuation of conditions associated with the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the expectation of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Ni?o or La Ni?a) during August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.
1st Danger - Storm Surge
"The greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge." - Brian Jarvinen, National Hurricane Center
Storm surge is water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. Combined with normal tides this surge creates the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. Storm surges of 24 feet over 120 miles of coast line has been reported and measured in the past. Should a storm surge coincide with a normal high tide, severe flooding occurs.
Safety Actions if you are on the coast:
Most certainly if you are in a coastal area and close to sea level, you'll need to seriously consider evacuation. Then you need to make the the decision where to evacutate to, when to take the evacuation action (how many hours before the storm is predicted to hit) and what to do to safeguard your home or possessions.
Here are some issues to consider.
- Make the evacuation decision early enough. You know our roads and I would suggest a full 12 hours before a hurricane is predicted to make landfall, you need to have completed your home safeguarding actions, and be ensconsed in, or on the way to a higher area, drinking port and eating Sancocho with good friends.
- Minimize the distance you must travel to reach a safe location.
- Discuss your evacuation plans with neighbors or friends, so that they do not lose sight of where you are, and become worried.
- Prepare a pet plan
- Car full of gas with necessaries already packed. We'll talk more about this tomorrow when we talk about what specifically to prepare.
- Ensure that your place of evacuation has some kind of communication, television, radio or/and internet.
- Monitor DR1, where we'll have the latest and greatest information for you.
Tomorrow we'll look at:
- what to do to safeguard your home,
- what to pack if you evacuate
- what to have ready if you do not evacuate.
I'm taking these notes mostly from the Noaa sites and attempt to "Dominicanize" them, knowing that we do not have the infrastructure available here, as they have in the US. If you can think of anything to add at this stage, please do so. At the end of the week, I'll take all the input and condense it into a DR1 Resident and Visitor Hurricane Preparedness Plan.
"The greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge." - Brian Jarvinen, National Hurricane Center
Storm surge is water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. Combined with normal tides this surge creates the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. Storm surges of 24 feet over 120 miles of coast line has been reported and measured in the past. Should a storm surge coincide with a normal high tide, severe flooding occurs.
Safety Actions if you are on the coast:
Most certainly if you are in a coastal area and close to sea level, you'll need to seriously consider evacuation. Then you need to make the the decision where to evacutate to, when to take the evacuation action (how many hours before the storm is predicted to hit) and what to do to safeguard your home or possessions.
Here are some issues to consider.
- Make the evacuation decision early enough. You know our roads and I would suggest a full 12 hours before a hurricane is predicted to make landfall, you need to have completed your home safeguarding actions, and be ensconsed in, or on the way to a higher area, drinking port and eating Sancocho with good friends.
- Minimize the distance you must travel to reach a safe location.
- Discuss your evacuation plans with neighbors or friends, so that they do not lose sight of where you are, and become worried.
- Prepare a pet plan
- Car full of gas with necessaries already packed. We'll talk more about this tomorrow when we talk about what specifically to prepare.
- Ensure that your place of evacuation has some kind of communication, television, radio or/and internet.
- Monitor DR1, where we'll have the latest and greatest information for you.
Tomorrow we'll look at:
- what to do to safeguard your home,
- what to pack if you evacuate
- what to have ready if you do not evacuate.
I'm taking these notes mostly from the Noaa sites and attempt to "Dominicanize" them, knowing that we do not have the infrastructure available here, as they have in the US. If you can think of anything to add at this stage, please do so. At the end of the week, I'll take all the input and condense it into a DR1 Resident and Visitor Hurricane Preparedness Plan.
Not to trivialize this
But just buy a house or an apartment in Santiago!!....Near me, for example!!
But seriously folks, this is an important topic and if you have never seen a hurricane "up close and personal" you have no idea what it's like. So, if you live on the coast, get prepared now. You really only need enough for a few days, so it is not a major outlay.
HB
But just buy a house or an apartment in Santiago!!....Near me, for example!!
But seriously folks, this is an important topic and if you have never seen a hurricane "up close and personal" you have no idea what it's like. So, if you live on the coast, get prepared now. You really only need enough for a few days, so it is not a major outlay.
HB
Thanks Chris..
.. great job and a serious input!
This, as Hillbilly said, is not a game when a hurricane comes, it is a truly serious topic and preparations in time will, if there is a strong hurricane, be the difference.
If you have not experienced a hurricane before, or plan to move to Hillbilly, read carefully, and follow the advice Chris informed about.
.. great job and a serious input!
This, as Hillbilly said, is not a game when a hurricane comes, it is a truly serious topic and preparations in time will, if there is a strong hurricane, be the difference.
If you have not experienced a hurricane before, or plan to move to Hillbilly, read carefully, and follow the advice Chris informed about.
Hillbilly should start acting in his own defense even now... before all off the North Coastal Dwellers descend on the Hovel and AZB's place as convenient "evacuation party palaces!"
Seriously, when we lived in Florida, we had a very big pool and Lanai area. Our house was the evacuation point for the "Pelican Doctor's" injured pelicans... Oh man, can those birds sh!t!
Seriously, when we lived in Florida, we had a very big pool and Lanai area. Our house was the evacuation point for the "Pelican Doctor's" injured pelicans... Oh man, can those birds sh!t!