The viability of Dominican tourism in a post-Fidel Caribbean...

NALs

NALs

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It has come to my attention for several months now that people (on DR1 at least) have this notion of Dominican tourism being devastated once Cuba comes in full fledge.

The question now is this: Why people believe this?

I, for one, believe that our tourism will not be hurt by the entry of Cuban tourism full fledge into the Caribbean scene for the following reasons:

1. There has never ever been a case where a country in the Caribbean develops its tourism industry and then is destroyed by competition. When the Dominican Republic came into the tourism scene, the dominant tourist players in the Caribbean (primarily Puerto Rico and Jamaica) were worried that they will be destroyed by the fast growing Dominican tourism. What has happened?

Dominican Republic leads the Caribbean in terms of tourists arrivals, hotel room numbers, and overall tourist related economic activities. Have Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the lesser antilles been destroyed? Hardly, despite the fact that the DR has added around 60,000 to 70,000 hotel rooms to the Caribbean market.

The only island nations in the Caribbeans that developed their tourism and then got it destroyed was Monserrat and Haiti, however competition had nothing to do with either demise. Montserrat was destroyed by its very own volcano when it erupted in the mid-1990s and Haiti's tourism died under Baby Docs iron fist and subsequent negative impacts, including Haiti being blamed for the Aids epidemic and the multiple revolutions and coups in the past few decades.

2. Cuba already has a thriving tourist industry. Cuba is extremely popular with Canadians, Latin Americans, and Europeans (like the DR, except the DR has Americans in the mix). Once Castro is out of the way, the floodgates for Americans will open and Cuba will be filled with Americans up and down the island. However, Americans are not the majority of the tourists who visit the DR right now. Europeans, Canadians, and Latin Americans are the overwhelming majority in Dominican tourism. Given this reality, why all the doomsday scenerios?

Given that the only people prohibited from visiting Cuba are Americans, by virtue of the American government, the flow of Europeans, Latin Americans, and Canadians to Cuba will most likely increment at the rates it has been incrementing, which are substancial and yet, are not affecting Dominican tourism by much. In addition, the opening of Cuba to Americans will simply give Americans one more place to go and since the DR is not an American dominated tourist market, the negative effect here will not be that great.

Other American dominated markets (ie. Cancun, Montego Bay-Negril, etc) might feel an even bigger impact that will the Dominican Republic, but that will most likely be limited to the initial boom that is expected. Once Cuban tourism growth stabilizes, the other American dominated markets would have adjusted and be relieved from the Cuban pressure.

3. The Dominican Republic has one thing Cuba lacks and that is the Dominican people. Albeit, there are many similarities between Cubans and Dominicans and both people are very nice, the truth of the matter is that we may be similar, but we are not the same. There are going to be plenty of people who will fall in love with Cubans to the degree many have fallen in love with Dominicans (figuratively speaking, though I suppose we can also include those who really have fallen in real love with a Dominican or Cuban) and those people will most likely continue to visit the DR for sometime, even after Cuba opens up to the American market.

Thus, Dominican tourism is not threatened by Cuban tourism. If anything, Cuban tourism will simply add more options for the ever growing number of visitors to this region. People want new places to visit and Cuba will offer that, but the DR is still an undiscovered paradise for millions of potential tourists and that means the DR will continue to be a "new" destination for millions of people even after Cuba has entered the game full fledge.

Will Cuba become number one? That is a given, simply by the sheer size of the island and the shape which adds thousands of more kilometers of shoreline than the DR has.

Will Cuba doom all other tourist destinations in the Caribbean? Not by much.

Will Cuba hurt the DR? The DR is the country that will weather this the best, simply because of our size in the market. During the 9-11 time, the DR faired the severe drop in tourism better than any other destination in the region. Cuba's effect will probably be similar and once the "Cuban opening fever" ends for the Americans, things will even down and tourism will continue to boom for Cuba and the DR alike.
 
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HOWMAR

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Nal0whs said:
. However, Americans are not the majority of the tourists who visit the DR right now. Europeans, Canadians, and Latin Americans are the overwhelming majority in Dominican tourism. Given this reality, why all the doomsday scenerios?
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I think many of the facts you quoted need to be verified.
For one, The Americans are the majority of tourists to the DR. See: http://www.bancentral.gov.do/estadisticas_economicas/sector_turismo/lleg_nacionalidad_2004.xls.
For 2004, out of 2.9 million tourists, 933,000 were American. That is over 32%. That number is double the number of Canadians ( approx 450,000) and triple the number of French, German or British (all under 300,000). Maybe the Americans just keep a low profile. The proportion of Americans has increased since 2000, every year.
 
NALs

NALs

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HOWMAR said:
I think many of the facts you quoted need to be verified.
For one, The Americans are the majority of tourists to the DR. See: http://www.bancentral.gov.do/estadisticas_economicas/sector_turismo/lleg_nacionalidad_2004.xls.
For 2004, out of 2.9 million tourists, 933,000 were American. That is over 32%. That number is double the number of Canadians ( approx 450,000) and triple the number of French, German or British (all under 300,000). Maybe the Americans just keep a low profile. The proportion of Americans has increased since 2000, every year.
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It's all in the wording.

I stated, Americans are not the majority compared to EUROPEAN, LATIN AMERICAN, AND CANADIANS. Notice the word European, includes all european nations combined.

Why did I made my comparison in such way? Because the only market that visits the DR and is prohibited from visiting Cuba at the moment is the American sector. Thus, it makes perfect sense to compare Americans to everybody else combined, since everybody else can visit Cuba at will anytime anyday with no hassles, beyond the typical customs hassles.

Americans maybe 32% of tourist arrivals, but Europeans, Latin Americans, and Canadians make up the remaining 68%. Last time I checked, 68% is much larger than 32% and those who make up the 68% can go to Cuba right now if they wish to do so. Once Cuba opens up, the segment of Dominican arrivals that will be affected the most will not be the 68% (remember, they already have Cuba in their Caribbean choices), but the 32% who are prohibited from going to Cuba.

Given that 32% is significant, but still on the rather small end of the spectrum, the effect won't be for too long or too harsh on Dominican tourism for the reasons I stated previously.
 
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HOWMAR

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Nal0whs said:
It's all in the wording.

I stated, Americans are not the majority compared to EUROPEAN, LATIN AMERICAN, AND CANADIANS. Notice the word European, includes all european nations combined.

Americans maybe 32% of tourist arrivals, but Europeans, Latin Americans, and Canadians make up the remaining 68%. Last time I checked, 68% is much larger than 32% and those who make up the 68% can go to Cuba right now if they wish to do so. Once Cuba opens up, the segment of Dominican arrivals that will be affected the most will not be the 68% (remember, they already have Cuba in their Caribbean choices), but the 32% who are prohibited from going to Cuba.

Given that 32% is significant, but still on the rather small end of the spectrum, the effect won't be for too long or too harsh on Dominican tourism for the reasons I stated previously.
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Pardon me for not catching your phraseology. I thought the point you were making was that the American tourism business was insignificant, and if it were diverted to Cuba it would make an insignificant impact. The real point is Americans are the DRs biggest customers and if a significant percentage of the 32% of the DRs tourism business were diverted, it is a doomsday scenerio. Not just to the tourism sector, but the country as a whole which depends on the influx of dollars. I guess it depends on what you call doomsday. If my business lost 32% or even 20% or even 10%, it's doomsday for many of my employees.
 
NALs

NALs

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HOWMAR said:
Pardon me for not catching your phraseology. I thought the point you were making was that the American tourism business was insignificant, and if it were diverted to Cuba it would make an insignificant impact. The real point is Americans are the DRs biggest customers and if a significant percentage of the 32% of the DRs tourism business were diverted, it is a doomsday scenerio. Not just to the tourism sector, but the country as a whole which depends on the influx of dollars. I guess it depends on what you call doomsday. If my business lost 32% or even 20% or even 10%, it's doomsday for many of my employees.
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Pardon not needed. Anyone could have made suchthing and I'm sure due to your post, I was able to make my post and message much clearer.

And again, its all in the wording, Americans are the DR biggest customers in terms of nationality and their arrivals.

But, given that of all the nationalities that are allowed to visit the DR, only the Americans are prohibited from visiting Cuba. Thus, when Cuba opens, the American sector of DR tourism is the one that will feel the effects and as usual, a full redirection of American tourism to Cuba will not be the case since such case never happens with Americans or any other market segment.

This is why I compared Americans to the rest of the group and not by nationality, since what everybody is actually referring to when they talk of the doomsday scenerio is in actuality the American segment of Dominican tourism for the reasons that I have already stated, Americans will be getting what they have been denied for 4 plus decades.

Europeans, Latin Americans, and Canadians have Cuba in their list of Caribbean destinations and the DR still attracts over 1.9 million or 68% of the total.
 
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Stodgord

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Nal0whs said:
Pardon not needed. Anyone could have made suchthing and I'm sure due to your post, I was able to make my post and message much clearer.

And again, its all in the wording, Americans are the DR biggest customers in terms of nationality and their arrivals.

But, given that of all the nationalities that are allowed to visit the DR, only the Americans are prohibited from visiting Cuba. Thus, when Cuba opens, the American sector of DR tourism is the one that will feel the effects and as usual, a full redirection of American tourism to Cuba will not be the case since such case never happens with Americans or any other market segment.

This is why I compared Americans to the rest of the group and not by nationality, since what everybody is actually referring to when they talk of the doomsday scenerio is in actuality the American segment of Dominican tourism for the reasons that I have already stated, Americans will be getting what they have been denied for 4 plus decades.

Europeans, Latin Americans, and Canadians have Cuba in their list of Caribbean destinations and the DR still attracts over 1.9 million or 68% of the total.
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How are Americans being counted? At the airports or at the Hotels? In the American figure do they include expats and the American children of Dominican parents that visit grandma, cousins and uncles. Are my American borned kids included in that figure?

If the American numbers are being derived by the amount of tourist cards then I would say the true American tourism numbers are lower. By true I mean, people that go to the DR for the purpose of being a tourist.
 
NALs

NALs

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Stodgord said:
How are Americans being counted? At the airports or at the Hotels? In the American figure do they include expats and the American children of Dominican parents that visit grandma, cousins and uncles. Are my American borned kids included in that figure?

If the American numbers are being derived by the amount of tourist cards then I would say the true American tourism numbers are lower. By true I mean, people that go to the DR for the purpose of being a tourist.
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To my knowledge, a person's entry is counted at any port of entry, let it be sea, air, or land oriented.

Anyone who has an American citizenship or passport is counted as American visitors. This would mean that your children are counted into the figures.

Also, anyone who takes leasure time (ie. a Dominican expatriate who is still a Dominican citizen but lives abroad and comes to visit, a Dominican or expatriate living in the country who takes a day of leasure to visit attractions, museums, etc) are all counted as tourists.

However, the later part are hardly accounted for, only the Dominicans passing through the airports with a return ticket are counted in the figure as well.

This is how "tourists" are counted in most countries as well.

Also, keep in mind, there are many people who visit here multiple times a year and that person will be counted as a different tourist each time, because each time he/she will be most likely spending "tourist" dollars that he/she would have not done so if he/she would have never visited multiple times a year.

The American numbers are inflated by Dominican expatriates who have been naturalized. This also explains why you see so few full fledge American tourists compared to tourists from Canada, Europe, even from other Latin American places combined!
 
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HOWMAR

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Stodgord said:
How are Americans being counted? At the airports or at the Hotels? In the American figure do they include expats and the American children of Dominican parents that visit grandma, cousins and uncles. Are my American borned kids included in that figure?

If the American numbers are being derived by the amount of tourist cards then I would say the true American tourism numbers are lower. By true I mean, people that go to the DR for the purpose of being a tourist.
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The numbers on the website are broken down. You can determine the number of entries at each airport and border-crossing as well as cruise passengers stopping for short periods. You also can determine how many indicate the reason for their trip is business or pleasure. Also if their lodging is in hotel or private home. In short, the true tourist numbers are those that do not indicate they are here on business. Even if they are visiting family, their financial impact is that of a tourist. The same as if I traveled from NY to Miami to visit family.
 
NALs

NALs

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HOWMAR said:
The numbers on the website are broken down. You can determine the number of entries at each airport and border-crossing as well as cruise passengers stopping for short periods. You also can determine how many indicate the reason for their trip is business or pleasure. Also if their lodging is in hotel or private home. In short, the true tourist numbers are those that do not indicate they are here on business. Even if they are visiting family, their financial impact is that of a tourist. The same as if I traveled from NY to Miami to visit family.
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Business travelers are also considered tourists due to the fact that a person who may be here on business, can engage in non-business oriented economic transactions, such as visiting a bar, going into a museum, or any other thing that he/she might do in whatever spare time such person might have while on the "business trip".

To better judge the impact of tourism in the country, by the type of tourist, it would be best done if we were to compare the average spending amount according to each tourist group as oppose to sheer number of people.

In any case, I would assume that the total amount spent by the 1,972,000 non-American tourists would be greater combined than the amount spent by the 928,000 American tourists.

Keep in mind, a good number of the "American" tourists are Dominicans who have been naturalized to another country and thus, the opening of Cuba will certainly not affect their travel plans to the DR, unless their entire family moves to Cuba.
 
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ricktoronto

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HOWMAR said:
I think many of the facts you quoted need to be verified.
For one, The Americans are the majority of tourists to the DR. See: http://www.bancentral.gov.do/estadisticas_economicas/sector_turismo/lleg_nacionalidad_2004.xls.
For 2004, out of 2.9 million tourists, 933,000 were American. That is over 32%. That number is double the number of Canadians ( approx 450,000) and triple the number of French, German or British (all under 300,000). Maybe the Americans just keep a low profile. The proportion of Americans has increased since 2000, every year.
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On a per capita basis though we have 1/2 the number of visitors vs. the USA with 1/10th the population so we are 5 times as prevalent as visitors to the DR AND we can go to Cuba whenever we want to. A Cuba with less hassle and soldiers eyeballing you on every corner might be inviting to more Canadians with a loss to the DR as a result.
 
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HOWMAR

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Nal0whs said:
Business travelers are also considered tourists due to the fact that a person who may be here on business, can engage in non-business oriented economic transactions, such as visiting a bar, going into a museum, or any other thing that he/she might do in whatever spare time such person might have while on the "business trip"..
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The Central Bank stats specifically address this by seperating those who indicate that the reason for visit is "Business" from those here for tourism. So in fact the number of American tourists is underreported since a portion of the Business visitors spend tourism dollars.


To better judge the impact of tourism in the country, by the type of tourist, it would be best done if we were to compare the average spending amount according to each tourist group as oppose to sheer number of people
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Absolutely. Especially since different groups are known to spend differently. It is common knowledge that the French Canadians and Germans are the hardest to seperate from their money while the Americans usually are more free-spending. (Not meant as a national slur, only the perceived facts by those in the tourism industry)
 
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rellosk

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Nal0whs said:
Thus, when Cuba opens, the American sector of DR tourism is the one that will feel the effects and as usual, a full redirection of American tourism to Cuba will not be the case since such case never happens with Americans or any other market segment.
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It won't take a full redirection for the DR to feel the effects. If only 1/3 of the US sector chooses to go to Cuba, total tourism to the DR will decrease by over 10%, which is not an insignificant amount.
 
NALs

NALs

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The Central Bank stats specifically address this by seperating those who indicate that the reason for visit is "Business" from those here for tourism. So in fact the number of American tourists is underreported since a portion of the Business visitors spend tourism dollars.
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Yes, I am aware of this. However, when the total figures for visitors are presented, those figures includes business travelers as well.

The CB separates these figures to be more clear who's here from where and for what, but when the full total figures are presented, business travelers are included.


Absolutely. Especially since different groups are known to spend differently. It is common knowledge that the French Canadians and Germans are the hardest to seperate from their money while the Americans usually are more free-spending. (Not meant as a national slur, only the perceived facts by those in the tourism industry)
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Absolutely true.

The only negative thing about All Inclusives (well, I should say one of the many negative things) is that the kids are well taken care of in many of the resorts. This means, entire families don't leave the resort and many times, the kids are in kids programs the entire day.

Why is this bad? Because kids are great spenders of Other peoples money, the other people being mom and dad. But, they only spend when they see what they want and mom and dad are within reach. Not much of that going on within the resorts and that, keeps spending figures low among other things.
 
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HOWMAR

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Nal0whs said:
Keep in mind, a good number of the "American" tourists are Dominicans who have been naturalized to another country and thus, the opening of Cuba will certainly not affect their travel plans to the DR, unless their entire family moves to Cuba.
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Keep in mind that a good number of the Dominicans naturalized as Americans have kept their Dominican citizenship and passport so as they can benefit from the exemption of duty (especially in December) when they visit. They are not counted as Americans.
 
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rellosk

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Nal0whs said:
Keep in mind, a good number of the "American" tourists are Dominicans who have been naturalized to another country and thus, the opening of Cuba will certainly not affect their travel plans to the DR, unless their entire family moves to Cuba.
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I believe those people have been excluded from the 933,017 US travelers in the link provided by HOWMAR.
 
NALs

NALs

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rellosk said:
It won't take a full redirection for the DR to feel the effects. If only 1/3 of the US sector chooses to go to Cuba, total tourism to the DR will decrease by over 10%, which is not an insignificant amount.
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Its not an insignificant amount, but its not a doomsday scenerio amount either, since 90% of the business will continue on and that 10% will be covered by the ever growing numbers of Canadians, Latin Americans, and Europeans to the country, in addition to the huge number of Americans with passports who have yet to step foot in this country.

I'm not debating that an effect will not be felt, but rather that our tourism industry will not be demised. If anything, the much smaller American dependent tourist destinations in the region have more to worry about than we do about Cuba.
 
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HOWMAR

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Nal0whs said:
Yes, I am aware of this. However, when the total figures for visitors are presented, those figures includes business travelers as well.

The CB separates these figures to be more clear who's here from where and for what, but when the full total figures are presented, business travelers are included.
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The figures I quoted were for tourists entries, not including business.
 
NALs

NALs

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HOWMAR said:
Keep in mind that a good number of the Dominicans naturalized as Americans have kept their Dominican citizenship and passport so as they can benefit from the exemption of duty (especially in December) when they visit. They are not counted as Americans.
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Perhaps, I will inquire more about this.

If this is the case, then the impact will be greater than I was expecting, but less than it would be for other destinations in the regions that have a tourist industry that depends sometimes as high as 90% from the American market.

And as I have stated, its not as if the number of non-Americans visiting the country has been declining, in the contrary, their numbers have been on the rise as well, despite Cuba being one of their options offering all-inclusives galore.

If anything, Cuba will become heavily dominated by the American segment, while the DR will continue to be dominated by non-American interests in the tourist sector.

Talk to many European tourists in particular, they are not too keen of the Americans coming on the land "that the europeans play in". One of the biggest complaints Americans have when visiting Dominican resorts is the fact that Dominican resorts are geared to the largest segment of our tourism, Europeans. Albeit, its slightly changing to accomodate the growing American force, but its still largely european geared.

You still find open air restaurants, as oppose to air conditioned places; wine is often offered as oppose to bear during dinners; the staffs at front desk have a tendency of knowing basic foreign languages that are not English, etc. In fact, soccer is the one of the primary sports viewed in many resort bars. This is Europes in the tropics under a Dominican filter.

Now, Cancun, that is Florida south of the American border. Undeniably an American influenced and dominated market.
 
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HOWMAR

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I've had enough. Nal0whs, when you can't argue the facts or figures, blame it on the All INclusives.
 
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HOWMAR

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Nal0whs said:
Perhaps, I will inquire more about this.

If this is the case, then the impact will be greater than I was expecting, but less than it would be for other destinations in the regions that have a tourist industry that depends sometimes as high as 90% from the American market.

And as I have stated, its not as if the number of non-Americans visiting the country has been declining, in the contrary, their numbers have been on the rise as well, despite Cuba being one of their options offering all-inclusives galore.
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Have you been to Cuba? It is a country that is falling apart. Most of the resorts haven't been updated in years. I think you could place Cuba on a scale midpoint between the DR and Haiti. The DR rating an "8" and Haiti rating a "0".
 
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