Dont get me wrong, I know DR has received many lashings in the past, but it seems that incredibly most hurriicanes veer either to the north or south of the country. Is this because the storms prefer the water to land as they renew their strength from it? It just seems that so many of the big ones pass it by. God willing this will continue to be the case. Or am I just completly wrong?
- Thread starter Freemo
- Start date
Does DR avoid the worst in most cases?
Freemo said:
SSHHH!!! Don't let Mother Nature hear you! Actually, it depends a lot on the air currents in the carribean, as we've seen this year with all the hurricanes forming to the north of us. The Mona Canal also helps with it's constant currents away from us. Other than that, I'd just say the DR is very lucky...
Freemo said:
:nervous: yeah i was wondering the same thing too!! they have avoided alot of hurricaines this yr! i was there when 1 went past it this year
We've talked about this a bit, before
But , in general, we get missed a lot more than we get hit.
As regards to the whole island, the south gets hit and the north does not.
Because of the predominent winds, only the eastern parts and then along the south coast all the way to Haiti are subject to real hurricane damage.
We have had the odd phenom -- David in 1979 -- that actually crossed over the entire central portion of the island are really whopped us hard. It came in at Haina and left by way of Monte Cristi!!
And yes, over land the hurricane looses force. It all has to do with warm waters..just watch Rita today..
And look at this map. See what is coming off the coast of Africa?? Might get interesting or it might not, but that is where they start.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large.html
End of class.
HB
But , in general, we get missed a lot more than we get hit.
As regards to the whole island, the south gets hit and the north does not.
Because of the predominent winds, only the eastern parts and then along the south coast all the way to Haiti are subject to real hurricane damage.
We have had the odd phenom -- David in 1979 -- that actually crossed over the entire central portion of the island are really whopped us hard. It came in at Haina and left by way of Monte Cristi!!
And yes, over land the hurricane looses force. It all has to do with warm waters..just watch Rita today..
And look at this map. See what is coming off the coast of Africa?? Might get interesting or it might not, but that is where they start.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large.html
End of class.
HB
This year however I was amazed to see how many systems only formed North NorthEast or NorthWest of us. I track every system from its birth off the African coast or down the Island chain and some nights I would look at a system still far away.. and say to myself.. Uhoh! this one does not look good. Invariably this year, the wave or depression waved across us and most other Caribbean Islands down the chain, and formed into a monster up North/NorthEast of us. So far, we've been exceedingly lucky this year. The Caribbean as a whole has been exceedingly lucky given the extremely active season we are experiencing. For me, I'm counting the days till this season is over.
Here is a piece of topical trivia for you.. Did you know that Cuba holds the record in modern times of the least deaths from hurricanes and the best system of evacuation.
Here is a piece of topical trivia for you.. Did you know that Cuba holds the record in modern times of the least deaths from hurricanes and the best system of evacuation.
As a rule of thumb, if Puerto Rico gets hit, we might be in for a storm the next day.
Of course, not all storms take the PR-DR tour, some come exclusively to the DR via the south coast.
That was imbedded in the minds of Dominicans. Life became pre-David, after-David.We have had the odd phenom -- David in 1979 -- that actually crossed over the entire central portion of the island are really whopped us hard. It came in at Haina and left by way of Monte Cristi!!
Of course, Georges did quite a job to the southeast in '98.
With the case of Caribbean Islands, many (including Puerto Rico and Jamaica, in fact, when Hurricane George passed over Puerto Rico, the storm did not lost one bit of its fury) are not big enough to deteriorate the strength of the storm. Thus, the storm passes right over the islands as if they were never there.
However, whenever storms come over the DR, especially if they reach the Cordillera Central, the storms get really battered and increasingly lose much of their punch.
In '98, Hurricane George was a Category 4 or 5 (can't fully remember) when it entered in the eastern DR. The storm kept its strength until it reached the Cordillera. The storm stalled over the Cordillera and given that those mountains are as high as they are, the storm was reduced in form to almost a tropical depression by the time it left the island near Port Liberte, Haiti.
Of course, once over warm waters, the storm quickly gathered strength and hit southern Florida as a Hurricane.
These are amazing, but highly dangerous storms. Truly, nature's fury.
I don't get worried when these tropical waves comes off from Africa, because its too far away to know if we will get hit or not.
However, when a storm becomes a hurricane while getting closer to the Lesser Antilles (ie. Barbados, St Lucia, etc), I get a little worried. For example, Hurricane Phillipe, that one worried me until it headed north, which was odd, but I am glad it went that way.
Usually, if storms begin to make a beeline towards Puerto Rico, that is for much concern for us given that storms that hit PR, hit us the next day, albeit, a good number turn away from Dominican landmass and miss us completely.
Storms that pass over the lesser antilles and go into the Caribbean Sea puts one's nerves ready for autopilot. While the storm is directly south of Puerto Rico, its still cause for concern to us, due to the risk of the storm turning northwest anytime and hitting us.
However, once the storm is directly south of Santo Domingo, its not much of a concern, maybe more so for people in Barahona and vicinity. Usually, we just get a very angry Caribbean Sea with strong waves whipping the coral coast of Santo Domingo and spraying the malecon.
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No, you are not wrong.Freemo said:
It has been my observation ( I am not a meteorologist) that the Mona straight pushes almost all Hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico, to the North.
If they do happen to hit us in La Samana, either the mountain range pushes the storm Northward, or splits it in 2, reducing it's force.
On rare occasion, the mountains may push the whole storm Southward, and it can ravage a part of the Cibao valley, but mostly head toward Santo Domingo.
In the case of hurricanes that hit Punta Cana, the mountain ranges down there, have a tendency to push them South or at least, stay South and never make it to the North coast.
In the case of Jeanne which approached us from the South, making a northward turn, by the time it had crossed all the mountain ranges and got to us on the North coast, it was downgraded to a low level tropical storm.
It's been almost 15 years for me now in Sosua, without ever seen an actual Hurricane.
PS: I repeat that I am not a metorologist and my observations are just layman's interpretations of what I have seen.
For most of the years that I lived in Saman, there was a general feeling that Samana was protected by Puerto Rico. This is because storms coming up from the south act as though they had to make a decision whether to go north or west to avoid crashing into the mountains or Puerto Rico.
Whether the Mona influences the travel of hurricanes in some way, I don't know. But my observation is that they either start curving north towards the Bahamas before they get to the Mona, or somewhere off the north coast of Samana after passing the Mona.
I also remember Hortense, since I rode it out on my boat in Samana harbor. For sure that was one storm that wasn't deterred by the Mona. From all indications it was headed west toward the south coast of the DR, but then it brushed the southwest corner of Puerto Rico and turned and came up the Mona to Samana. Fortunately the contact with land caused its wind speed to drop to about 70 mph until it passed Samana, then it picked up steam and became a hurricane before striking the US.
Like Chris, I have been surprised that most activity has been off the US. Not complaining, mind you, just surprised since normally by this time of year there is more activity in the Caribbean. But I do recall among the forecasts and predictions at the beginning of the season was the expectation that this would be an especially dangerous season for coastal US.
Whether the Mona influences the travel of hurricanes in some way, I don't know. But my observation is that they either start curving north towards the Bahamas before they get to the Mona, or somewhere off the north coast of Samana after passing the Mona.
I also remember Hortense, since I rode it out on my boat in Samana harbor. For sure that was one storm that wasn't deterred by the Mona. From all indications it was headed west toward the south coast of the DR, but then it brushed the southwest corner of Puerto Rico and turned and came up the Mona to Samana. Fortunately the contact with land caused its wind speed to drop to about 70 mph until it passed Samana, then it picked up steam and became a hurricane before striking the US.
Like Chris, I have been surprised that most activity has been off the US. Not complaining, mind you, just surprised since normally by this time of year there is more activity in the Caribbean. But I do recall among the forecasts and predictions at the beginning of the season was the expectation that this would be an especially dangerous season for coastal US.
Hurricanes in the DR:
Jeanne (Category 1). 16 September 2004. East Coast, Samana and Puerto Plata.
Georges. (Category 3). 22 September 1998. Santo Domingo and La Romana on the southeastern coast.
Hortense. (Category 3). 10 September 1996. East coast from Punta Cana to Samana. 130 kph.
Gilbert. (Category 3). 11 September 1988. Barahona on the southwestern coast, with winds of 200 kph.
Emely. (Category 4). 22 September 1987. Bani on the southwestern coast, winds of 220 kph.
David. (Category 4). 31 August 1979. Santo Domingo on the south central coast.
Beulah. (Category 4). 10-11 September 1967. Barahona on the western coast with winds of 225 kms per hour.
Ines. (Category 4). 29 September 1966. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 240 kph.
Edith. (Category 2). 26-27 September 1963. La Romana on the southeastern coast, winds of 160 kph.
Katie. (Category 1). 16 October 1955. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 125 kph.
San Zenon. (Category 4-5). 3 September 1930. Santo Domingo on the southcentral coast.
Lil?s. 21 September 1894. Primarily affecting Santo Domingo and the southwestern coast.
From: http://dr1.com/weather/hurricanes.shtml
Jeanne (Category 1). 16 September 2004. East Coast, Samana and Puerto Plata.
Georges. (Category 3). 22 September 1998. Santo Domingo and La Romana on the southeastern coast.
Hortense. (Category 3). 10 September 1996. East coast from Punta Cana to Samana. 130 kph.
Gilbert. (Category 3). 11 September 1988. Barahona on the southwestern coast, with winds of 200 kph.
Emely. (Category 4). 22 September 1987. Bani on the southwestern coast, winds of 220 kph.
David. (Category 4). 31 August 1979. Santo Domingo on the south central coast.
Beulah. (Category 4). 10-11 September 1967. Barahona on the western coast with winds of 225 kms per hour.
Ines. (Category 4). 29 September 1966. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 240 kph.
Edith. (Category 2). 26-27 September 1963. La Romana on the southeastern coast, winds of 160 kph.
Katie. (Category 1). 16 October 1955. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 125 kph.
San Zenon. (Category 4-5). 3 September 1930. Santo Domingo on the southcentral coast.
Lil?s. 21 September 1894. Primarily affecting Santo Domingo and the southwestern coast.
From: http://dr1.com/weather/hurricanes.shtml
Dolores said:
Jeanne was a cat 1 hurricane when it hit Samana, but was a tropical storm when it got to Sosua and Samana. Hortense became cat 3 after it left the DR, but the wind speed when it hit Samana was down to 70 mph or so as a result of bouncing off the southwest corner of PR then coming up the Mona. Along the south coast of PR, as I recall, it was cat 1.
principe said:
I do not know about the 'regular' hurricane track. This season scrambled my brains in terms of everything I ever thought I knew. After Katrina, one of the meteorologists at Florida State in tears... said: "We know so little, with all our knowledge, we know so little!" And that seems to me the prevailing wisdom of this hurricane season. Last season, Ken and I marvelled at the accuracy and excellence of the NHC's work. This season I say... We know so little...!
Dominican Hurricanes
I would disagree on some of your classifications data of DR hurricanes. Hurricane David which I experienced first hand was a Cat 5 when it hit between Azua and Haina. After the eye passed over I saw a barrio wiped away from a safe house. David is considered one of the strongest hurricanes to hit land from the last century.
Also Georges hit land cat 4 but diminished to 3 as it encountered the central mountain range.
Emily was never a CAT 4 and did very little damage to Bani maybe CAT 2
Also Beaulah only reached CAT 1 in 1967
San Zenon in 1930 is interesting because few knew it was going to impact Santo Domingo and many got caught out by the eye. Leaving their refuges as it passed over. It destroyed most the old wooden buildings in the Zona Colonial. Today you can see the buildings that are of an Art Deco style where those that were constructed in place of those destroyed. Incidentally Trujillo took hold of power the same year, as he commanded the reconstruction of the country taking advantage of the weak state.
Maybe we have been lucky this year but Hispa?iola is no stranger to Hurricanes. The word Hurricane comes from this island. The word Uracan comes from Taino mythology that refers to the evil god who raises storms to injure people. The DR is in the middle of the Caribbean and has had since the beginning of recorded History and since the arrival of Columbus suffered many Hurricanes. For thousands of years the mountains, the rivers and even the vegetation has been shaped by Hurricanes. Endemic trees like the Royal Palms are designed to resist Hurricanes by shedding its branches when winds pass 80 mph, enabling it to stay upright. When a hurricane does hit here all the introduced trees fall over whilst the endemic and naturalized survive.
Dolores said:
I would disagree on some of your classifications data of DR hurricanes. Hurricane David which I experienced first hand was a Cat 5 when it hit between Azua and Haina. After the eye passed over I saw a barrio wiped away from a safe house. David is considered one of the strongest hurricanes to hit land from the last century.
Also Georges hit land cat 4 but diminished to 3 as it encountered the central mountain range.
Emily was never a CAT 4 and did very little damage to Bani maybe CAT 2
Also Beaulah only reached CAT 1 in 1967
San Zenon in 1930 is interesting because few knew it was going to impact Santo Domingo and many got caught out by the eye. Leaving their refuges as it passed over. It destroyed most the old wooden buildings in the Zona Colonial. Today you can see the buildings that are of an Art Deco style where those that were constructed in place of those destroyed. Incidentally Trujillo took hold of power the same year, as he commanded the reconstruction of the country taking advantage of the weak state.
Maybe we have been lucky this year but Hispa?iola is no stranger to Hurricanes. The word Hurricane comes from this island. The word Uracan comes from Taino mythology that refers to the evil god who raises storms to injure people. The DR is in the middle of the Caribbean and has had since the beginning of recorded History and since the arrival of Columbus suffered many Hurricanes. For thousands of years the mountains, the rivers and even the vegetation has been shaped by Hurricanes. Endemic trees like the Royal Palms are designed to resist Hurricanes by shedding its branches when winds pass 80 mph, enabling it to stay upright. When a hurricane does hit here all the introduced trees fall over whilst the endemic and naturalized survive.
It would depend where Dolores is taking her stats from.Drake said:
For instance, a hurricane could hit land, 60 miles from Santo Domingo, as a Cat 4, but only be a Cat 3, by the time it hits Santo Domingo.
Is that a fact?Drake said:
That's really interesting.
I always wondered why they were called cyclones in the Eastern world & hurricanes here.
Also, to add to what Rocky is saying -- the categorization of storms is based on windspeed measured. But windspeed of these storms are different in each quadrant. So, if you get hit by the northeastern quadrant, you'll most likely experience much more devastating conditions than in the southwestern quadrant. It also depends greatly on the distance that you are away from the storm. In as little as 30 miles away from the eye of a smaller storm, you may simply experience strong tropical storm conditions, whilst your neighbors a little closer, could be losing their houses.
Drake, I learnt that the origin of the word hurricane is most commonly thought to be of Mayan origin - based on the Creator God Hurakan. Only later was the Carib God of Evil, Hurican brought into the picture.
Drake, I learnt that the origin of the word hurricane is most commonly thought to be of Mayan origin - based on the Creator God Hurakan. Only later was the Carib God of Evil, Hurican brought into the picture.
Perhaps, the Taino's were related to the Mayans.Chris said:
I know that most of the island Indians came from the mainland.
As I traveled between Constanza and San Jose De Ocoa, one day, I came accross an ancient structure that reminded me very much of the Mayan temples in the Yucatan & Quintana Roo.
Sorry for slipping off topic.
Rocky said:
It would be interesting to know, Rocky. For sure the stat for Hortense for DR is wrong. I never would have risked riding it out on my anchored sailboat if it was a cat 3.
Chris, what especially impresses me about this season is how accurately Dr. Grey predicted the sort of season we were going to have. He accurately predicted the increase in major storms, and the increase in major storms hitting the US.
I think the confusion about the historically published hurricane intensity numbers come from the fact that we're shooting at a moving target anyways... and we're using US data as this is most reliable. The general tendency is to publish data at the Hurricane's strongest intensity in its lifecycle and then at the eventual landfall position intensity. According to the historical tables, Hortense was a Cat 1 when it passed over you and your boat in Samana Harbor, Ken. But Hortense is also classified as the 2nd cat 4 hurricane of the 1996 season and at eventual landfall, the 4th cat 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. (US data)
So, Hortense will go down in history books as a Cat 3.. It is really hard to sift through all the data through all the years and figure out the exact strength at landfall in the Dominican Republic. Our own data is not so well kept up and so easily available.
It is Dr Gray's predictions that make me follow each tropical disturbance from its birth Ken... they truly did good work. In terms of Tropical Disturbances or invests in the hurricane breeding grounds, they've even erred on the side of caution. Also, with massive publicity, everyone now is aware (and everyone is an expert suddenly You would not believe the pm's I get... Somehow it did not register in my brain that there will be such an increase on the US coast. I know that we are looking at US data, and in my head I equate the data with the whole Caribbean.
Also, I think that with the number of hurricanes and the intensity increasing over the past 10 or so years, our own perceptions of danger has changed. I can also think of one storm we sat out in Sarasota Bay (name escapes me now).. We did not even think twice about it.. And now, I head for the hills and certainly not for the boat. And the times, they are a'changing!
So, Hortense will go down in history books as a Cat 3.. It is really hard to sift through all the data through all the years and figure out the exact strength at landfall in the Dominican Republic. Our own data is not so well kept up and so easily available.
It is Dr Gray's predictions that make me follow each tropical disturbance from its birth Ken... they truly did good work. In terms of Tropical Disturbances or invests in the hurricane breeding grounds, they've even erred on the side of caution. Also, with massive publicity, everyone now is aware (and everyone is an expert suddenly
You would not believe the pm's I get... Somehow it did not register in my brain that there will be such an increase on the US coast. I know that we are looking at US data, and in my head I equate the data with the whole Caribbean. Also, I think that with the number of hurricanes and the intensity increasing over the past 10 or so years, our own perceptions of danger has changed. I can also think of one storm we sat out in Sarasota Bay (name escapes me now).. We did not even think twice about it.. And now, I head for the hills and certainly not for the boat. And the times, they are a'changing!