Hurricane Preparedness - 2006

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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We put this post together to help planning and making decisions for safeguarding you, your family and your home during the 2006 hurricane season. Again, an above-normal hurricane season is predicted for the Atlantic and of course the Caribbean for 2006. We will see a final assessment of these numbers by Drs Klotzbach and Gray at the end of May 2006

As of April 4th, 2006, the predictions stand as follows:
9 Hurricanes (average is 5.9)
17 Named Storms (average is 9.6)
85 Named Storm Days (average is 49.1)
45 Hurricane Days (average is 24.5)
5 Intense Hurricanes (Category 3-4-5) (average is 2.3)
13 Intense Hurricane Days (average is 5.0)
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) of 100 (average is 71)

Hurricane Names for the 2006 season are:
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William


A Hurricane, also referred to as a Tropical Cyclone, is given a name when its winds travel counterclockwise and reach 39 mph, tropical storm strength. Taking action to be safe is easy if you've done your Hurricane Preparedness Planning well. If you live in a hurricane prone area, or near the coast, it is best to do you hurricane preparations early and effectively and revisit your plan periodically during the hurricane season.

Hurricane Hazards
Storm Surge - Storm surge is water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. Combined with normal tides this surge creates the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. Storm surges of 24 feet over 120 miles of coast line has been reported and measured in the past. Should a storm surge coincide with a normal high tide, severe flooding occurs.

High Winds - The most commonly used scale to measure winds during a hurricane is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. So, a Category 1 hurricane has lighter winds compared to say a Category 3 hurricane. A Category 4 hurricane would have winds between 131 and 155 mph and could cause 100 times the damage of a Category 1 storm. The strongest winds usually occur in the right side of the eyewall of the hurricane. Wind speed usually decreases significantly within 12 hours after landfall.

Tropical storm-force winds are strong enough to be dangerous to those caught in them. Should a hurricane approach, it is best to have all your preparation complete, even before the onset of tropical storm-force winds. Usually there is sufficient warning before a hurricane, so that preparations can be made in advance.

Inland Flooding - Statistics from the US teach us that freshwater floods account for more than half of the tropical cyclone deaths over the past 30 years. Inland areas are by no means safe from the results of hurricanes or tropical cyclones. It is best to understand the patterns of the water around your area of living and to make appropriate plans.

What can you do to safeguard yourself and your family?
The essential decision that needs to be taken is whether your home is safe and sturdy, and far away from areas prone to flooding or storm surge, so that you can remain there during a hurricane, or whether you should evacuate to a safer area. Discuss these plans with your family and get their input. Even kids can be a great help. To my mind, everything greater than a Cat 2 hurricane, even if your home is sturdy and safe, requires evacutation.

To go - or not to go
- If your home is safe, prepare it and stay there
- If your home is not safe, arrange for an evacuation location well in advance. Now is the time to make plans.
- Keep your car filled with gas during hurricane season.
- Many DR1 members do not have cars as public transport is readily available. Have the bus schedules on hand and take an earlier bus or public transportation, rather than planning on taking a later bus.

Securing larger buildings - Condos or Blocks of Flats
Your building should have a hurricane preparedness plan that you could carry out as a community.

For Tourists and Visitors
The hotels situated on the coastal areas of the DR have experience with preparing for hurricanes. Let your friends and family know that http://www.dr1.com/status/index.shtml has up to date information about the status of hotels. You can be of help by assisting the staff to carry out the preparedness plan. In certain cases, you will be evacuated. Most Dominican hotels have already lived through the effects of a hurricane and by now are most likely to have a rehearsed hurricane preparedness plan.

The Evacuation
Make the evacuation decision early enough. You know our roads and I would suggest a full 12 hours before a hurricane is predicted to make landfall in your area, you need to have completed your home safeguarding actions, and be ensconsed in, or on the way to a higher area, drinking port and eating Sancocho with good friends.
- Minimize the distance you must travel to reach a safe location.
- Discuss your evacuation plans with neighbors, family or friends, so that they do not lose sight of where you are, and become worried.
- Prepare a pet plan
- Keep your vehicle full of gas with necessaries already packed. Have a look at the specific list of requirements following, and set together in a hurricane pack what you may need.
- Ensure that your place of evacuation has some kind of communication, television, radio or/and internet.
- Monitor DR1, where we'll have the latest and greatest information for you.

Staying in your Home
TO DO BEFORE HURRICANE SEASON
*The DR building codes are not always up to snuff, so, I would suggest you take a good look at your home. If concrete roof, all should be fine. If other style roof, make sure that the roof is well constructed. Possibly add hurricane clips. If you feel that your home would not be safe, please evacuate.
*Protect all windows by installing commercial shutters or preparing 5/8 inch plywood panels in such a way that they can be easily affixed over your windows.
*Garage doors are frequently the first feature in a home to fail. Reinforce all garage doors so that they are able to withstand high winds.
*Designate an interior room with no windows or external doors as a “Safe Room” where you are going to wait out the storm. Last year, friends of ours on a neighboring island spent 16 hours in their 'safe room'. Be ready to make your 'safe room' comfortable with beds or mattresses and lots of books and activities. You may be there for many hours. When you choose this 'safe room', make sure that it won't flood.
*Before hurricane season, assess your property to ensure that landscaping and trees do not become a wind hazard. It is a good idea to do this now and then again in August sometime, prior to the peak of the season. Trim dead wood and weak overhanging branches from all trees. Trees and bushes are vulnerable to high winds and any dead tree near a home is a hazard.
*Consider landscaping materials other than gravel/rock.

TO DO AS A HURRICANE APPROACHES
*Once a hurricane warning is issued for your area, install your window shutters or plywood panels. (It is a good idea to practice this once or twice during your preparation, so that you know you have everything on hand for the task). It is good practice to tape up the windows with some sturdy ductape as this may help protect against flying glass fragments should a glass window or door break.
*Secure or bring inside all lawn furniture and other outside objects that could become a projectile in high winds. I've seen many people simply throw garden chairs into the pool. They are safe there and won't blow around
*Place all the final items that you may need, in your safe room, or evacuate.
*As the winds approach, get into the 'safe room' and monitor informational sites about the hurricane. Note that in Santo Domingo, at least, telephone lines are underground so Internet connections should continue throughout the storm as was the experience during Georges in 1998.
*Do not leave your “Safe Room” until the wind has subsided, the 2nd time. The first time around, as you hear the wind drop, it maybe the eye of the hurricane passing over. There is little to no wind in the eye of a hurricane.

SAFE ROOM STOCK or PACK IN THE CAR ready for evacuation.
- Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days
- Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days (canned food / juices), foods for special needs in your family, babies or older folks, snack foods, non-electric can opener, cooking tools / fuel (a little gas stove with a small gas cannister is a life saver!), paper plates/plastic utensils
- Make your 'safe room' comfortable (matresses, bedcovers, pillows, games, books, lighting)
- Dry clothing, rain gear if you have it
- Medicines / Prescription Drugs / Medications / Glasses / Keys
- Any special items that you cannot live without
- Paper / Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes
- Flashlight / Batteries
- Radio - Battery operated with fresh batteries
- Cash - Banks and ATMs may not be open for a period
- Keys
- Important documents - in a waterproof container or big ziploc bag (insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Cedula and Residencia, Passport etc.)
- Tools - keep a set with you during the storm
- Vehicle with full tank
- Pets (food, water)
- The water may be contaminated after a hurricane. Also have some chlorine at hand to sterilize your water source if necessary.
- First Aid Kit should you have to treat an injury
- Check the generator, fuel should be safely stored.
- If you live in a high-rise apartment building, make sure the elevator is kept at the top floor.

Final Actions - before Huddling Down
*Shut off Propane
*Shut off Water Mains
*Check storm shutters one last time
*Shut electricity off at the mains
*Close and lock the doors and huddle down in the 'Safe Room'.

To recap, when Hurricane Season Starts (right about now if you have not done so!) YOU SHOULD:
- Assemble your Hurricane Survival Kit and all those items needed to safeguard your home.
- Write out and agree with family a Family Preparedness Plan.
- Let friends and family know that you will be safe and arrange for a contact telephone number.

When a Hurricane WATCH is issued:
- Check your Hurricane Survival Kit.
- Make sure nothing is missing. Determine if there is anything you need to supplement your kit. Replenish your water.
- Activate your Family Disaster Plan.
- Evacuation Plans should be in progress right about at this stage of the process.

When a Hurricane WARNING is issued YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY:
- Ready your Disaster Supply Kit for use and do the final preparation of your safe area in your home. When the winds start howling, huddle down in the safe area and don't leave until the winds subside for the 2nd time.
- Evacuation plans should be proceeding brisky.
Remember, you cannot evacuate when a storm is howling around you... so, make that evacuation decision early if you have any doubts.

Let's all be safe during this Hurricane Season and have the resources to help neighbors, friends and the community.
 

Beads

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May 21, 2006
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an interesting read. i have never been in the DR during a hurricane yet. any people from the Sosua area who have experienced a cat 3 or 4 how does the area hold up? are things back up to snuff rather quickly so tourists can get food?
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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The National Hurricane Center will publish its 2006 forecast at 11am today.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Update from the Noaa press conference ...

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting
13 to 16 named storms,
with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes,
of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,"

[/FONT]
 
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Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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I shouted these numbers out to my husband, whose laconic answer was .. move from the computer for one moment and then you'll see there is a westerly blowing .. which made me run outside after a day behind the box to check what is happening. And then I checked the Atlantic weather and saw the first weak cyclonic circulation developing near the Cape Verde Islands. Weak, nothing to worry about now, but we are defnitely getting to the Hurricane Season weather patterns.

If you're on the coast, get your preparations done already! OK! ;)
 

Dolores1

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May 3, 2000
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I attended a conference at Funglode in Santo Domingo on climate changes. The consultant said that the track record for the Caribbean was better in a year of lots of hurricanes than a year with few hurricanes. Few hurricanes means more will hit the Caribbean, at least that is what the historic record shows.

Those of us who live in the Caribbean need to be as prepared for a disastrous hurricane every year. It is part of living in the Caribbean.
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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It is my firm belief that anyone living from Miches to Pedernales should have a basic emergency kit ready during hurricane season.
Folks living on the blessed North Shore should be wary and at least have something stocked away--just in case!!
Here in the "interior" of the country--what the "Capitale?os" call the "campo",--we should also have some basic foodstuffs-dry or canned, plenty of water and emergency electricity/lights/candles whatever. Plus battery or hand cranked radios or television sets.
Everyone should have a small First Aid kit.

What me worry? Won't work in the face of 120 mph winds and waves...

HB :D:D
 

Chris

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Prediction, Guidance and Intensity Models

This season again we will hear from Noaa about 'model guidance'. Here is a quick list of the models that are most often used to predict the path of hurricanes and their intensity.

Storm Track Guidance Models
BAM - CLIPER - GHM (GFDL) - GFS (formerly AVN) - GUNS, GUNA and CONU - HURRAN - LBAR - NOGAPS - NHC98 - UKMET

You'll most often hear mention made of the NOGAPS, the GFS, the GFDL and sometimes UKMET.

The NOGAPS model was not designed specifically to predict the motion of tropical cyclones. It is the US Navy's operational global atmospheric prediction system. The NOGAPS model is run four times daily every day of the year, producing forecasts out to 144 hours.

The GFS was initially developed for use in Aviation and is a medium-range forecast method.

[FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica]GFDL - This model is one of the few developed specifically for hurricane prediction.

UKMET - is simply the UK Metereological Office.

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica]GUNS - comes form the Naval Research Laboratory and this one averages theGFDL, UKMET and NOGAPS tracks. It is more accurate at track guidance at 24, 48 and 72 hours than the best track of one of the individual models.[/FONT]

Storm Intensity Guidance Models

SHIFOR - SHIPS |- GHM (GFDL)

Forecast Verification - is where the results of different models are put together, with the reasoning that the weaknesses of one, will be overshadowed by the strengths of another.

Storm Surge Guidance Model
SLOSH
 
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Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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OK, we have backup sets of fresh batteries for most everything, we've upped the delivery of potable water, the garden is clipped and clean and I've bought just a little more of non-fresh food. (Beans and Pulses and a few cans of stuff - which we never normally have in the house...)

The serious documentation hasl been scanned and printed and put in a separate zip lock bag.

We have upped our toilet paper supplies, incase anybody evacuates to our house.

I know it is hot, but would you folks get to getting your hurricane season preparations done already! :cheeky:

Saw today that Florida has all hurricane 'items' free of sales tax. So, one can buy candles, small generators, certain foodstuffs, batteries flashlights and other stuff free of sales tax if you are preparing for hurricane season.
 

Chris

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Mirador, This is a sensitive thing. I am married to an engineer, an electrical engineer with a speciality in digital electronics. We have masking tape, we have electrical tape... Our household has tape, masking tape, packing tape, electrical tape, electronics tape... what tape do you want? We have it. I don't have names for it, but we have it. We can probably tape up 4 houses without running out of tape ... In fact, without even threatening our tape supplies.

Uhm, sorry, tape is a sore point.... :laugh::laugh:
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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I don't like it...

Noaa has come up with a very good graphical illustration as to why we can expect quite an active hurricane season. I just don't like it that the light blue arrow came to rest right on the DR ... :laugh::laugh:
<img src="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/images/hurricane-season-2006-conditions.jpg">
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Updated Forecasts

Drs Klotzbach & Gray have confirmed their forecast for the 2006 hurricane season as :

17 named storms
9 will become hurricanes and
5 will be “major” hurricanes with sustained winds over 110 miles per hour.

Generally the expectation is fewer storms will hit the US mainland than we saw last year, so, there will be more for the Caribbean (so say the numbers). I trust all of you who live here have the necessary preparations well in hand.

We've already seen the tropical waves come and go with monotonous regularity over the past few weeks and currently, we have two tropical waves that we are monitoring. One is on the West Coast of Colombia and should enter the Eastern Pacific Ocean and leave our side of the world, and one over the Atlantic around 44 West and South of 14 North. Yesterday this wave showed good cyclonic definition. Today it is not as defined, although there still is some cyclonic turning evident.

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, (ITCZ - pronounced itch), commonly known as the jetstream for storms born on the African Coast to follow over the Atlantic Ocean, remains active today with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The strongest clusters are in the region of the Tropical Wave around 44 West.

The season is formally starting tomorrow but we've been observing the weather patterns change and forming into hurricane season over the past few weeks. Here's to hoping that the DR is as lucky as last year, with just one quick swipe of a tropical system whose name I've now forgotten, around the Barahona area, :laugh:
 
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Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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And we need the rain. although showers like yesterday are not that welcome, they are good for the dams (Hydro-power) and golf courses, and farms. However, the hail was not good. Damages crops...

Time to order more diesel!

HB :D:D
 

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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Hillbilly said:
And we need the rain. although showers like yesterday are not that welcome, they are good for the dams (Hydro-power) and golf courses, and farms. However, the hail was not good. Damages crops...

Time to order more diesel!

HB :D:D
Alida said the area around her clinic near Bartolome Colon and Feb 27th in STI, sorta behind Bellon, got totally flooded yesterday-3' in the clinic basement and several inches in the kitchen area. Had to pump them out this morning. What a mess!