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  1. #1
    DR1
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    Default Fast economic recovery

    From your observations on Latin American emerging capital markets and the economies in those countries, would DR be quite an exceptional case of having dropped low and done a turn around to a quite apparent recovery road so fast?

  2. #2
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    The first country that comes to mind is Argentina and in that I would have to say that yes indeed, so far.

    I believe the last or current O.A.S. President commentted along the same line.

    Hope those most knowledge can give us a more comprehensive responce

  3. #3
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    I would agree with AEGAP, but two cases come to mind, Mexico '94-'95 and Turkey '00-01. Both of this countries were hit by currency crisis and their economies tanked. Recovery was quick (in the sense that it did not take 5 years for their economies to come back). It should be noted that Mexico received a strong committment (financial and political) from the U.S. and Turkey from the IMF. Today Mexico is an investment rated country (and highlighted by market gurus and an example of country reform for other LatAm siblings) and Turkey is signalled as a progressive credit story with a huge development progress with European Union Accession chances.

    My two cents.

    Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue.

  4. #4
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    My opinion is that countries (so-called) do it all the time with IMF's blessing. The funny thing is that to me is like the blind leading the blind. IMF has lost its direction and sense of purpose, but are still trying to profile as hardliners.

    I don't see DR's turn around being so much an exception, rather the reflection of increased political faith in its economy.

    One of the coolest stories I read some time back was re: Thailand. If I recall the events correctly, they basically sold their debt and used the influx to spur their economy back on track. This was one of the few countries that didn't follow the Washington Consensus and as a result were relatively protected during the Asian Crisis.

    Just yesterday, people were discussing the fall of India's stock exchange, among a few other emerging markets. It's something to be concerned about since it reflects the still apparant instability of these very promising markets. I hope the worldwide ramificatins are minimal.

    The DR should extract the lessons learned.

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