Tropical Storm Chris

The Tropical wave that we've been watching over the past few days has developed overnight into a tropical depression 3, and quickly gathered strength to become the 2nd tropical storm of our 2006 season, Tropical Storm Chris.


A tropical storm warning is in effect for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anquilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatious, St Barthelemy, St. Martin and St. Maarten. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

At about 11 a.m. this morning, we should be under a tropical storm watch although this storm should pass us well to the North.

Here is the windfield and track as it stands now.

Satellite Image

Chris is moving toward the West-Northwest near 9 mph ... 15 km/hr and this general heading is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

On the forecast track, Chris is expected to move over or near the northernmost Leeward Islands sometime tonight or early Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph ... 65 km/hr with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

An Air Force Reserve Recon aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm this afternoon to provide a more accurate estimate of the strength and location of the storm.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles ... 55 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 MB...29.80 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts to near 8 inches are possible over the Northern Leeward Islands.

If the current forecast track holds true, we should be feeling some effect from this storm on the Eastern side of our Island around Thursday night. We will keep you informed as to what those effects may be. This time of year, storms traditionally veer further North than what the signs first indicate.

I love the DR1 weather observers :laugh: This storm developed fast and furious overnight and we were all confronted by a mass of data this morning very early. PJT has done a quick plot for us and has the storm passing 140 miles 225 km to the north of Punta Cana around Thursday.

If the current track holds, there will be no serious effect on us excepting that we will have real happy surfers on the North Coast and some rain. At the current track, the Turks and Caicos islands seem to be in the sights of the storm.

We will keep you informed.

Next year I'm going to place a special request that there are storms named Hillbilly and Mirador :laugh::laugh:

Here is Noaa's 11am discussion on this tropical storm. Generally once the storm has been looked at by a recon aircraft later today, Noaa's forecasters will be more sure of their observations.


000
WTNT43 KNHC 011429
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH</pre>

A little stronger while it approaches the Northernmost Leewards.

Tropical storms warnings now in effect for the US Virgin Islands and for Puerto Rico.

The following islands remain under tropical storm warnings:
Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St.Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St.Eustatius, St.Barthelemy, St.Martin, St.Maarten.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warming area within the next 12 to 24 hours.

At 5pm the center of tropical storm Chris was located about 55miles...90km Northeast of Antigua.

Chris is moving toward the West-Northwest near 10mph...17km/hr and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Reports from an air force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph...75 km/hr with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km from the center.

We are still more or less on the track suggested this morning. Around Thursday sometime the storm will pass us well to the North. Our friends in the Turks and Caicos are starting their preparations.

I think it is classical timing ... first tropical storm of the 2006 season, right bang on August 1. Again, for those of us that have been watching these tropical cyclones for a long time, the science of forecasting is not foolproof and this storm may change a little in its track. Traditionally however, we have them go by on the north at this time of the year.

It is most likely the Chris will have strengthened to hurricane strength when she passes us on the North Side of the Island late Thursday/early Friday.

Tropical force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, so, some effect will be felt by our Northcoasters. The surf will be up, but it may be quite messy.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60mph...95kms/hr with higher gusts.

At 5am, the center of tropical storm Chris was located about 60 miles...95km Northeast of St.Martin.

Chris is moving toward the West-Northwest near 10mph...17km/hr and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Chris will pass North of the Northernmost Leeward islands later this morning, and remain North of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon and evening.

However, some of the strong rain bands on the South side of Chris may affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later tonight early Thursday morning.

Chris should pass us on the North side Thursday night/Friday morning, at at hurricane strength.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles...120kms, mainly
Northeast of the Center.

This is by no means a storm that we can ignore, both in terms of track as well as strength. She is strengthening, becoming larger and we may see this storm develop into a major hurricane a few days into the future. There is no significant weather in Chris' path to curtail development.

Here is the current 5-day cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084607.shtml?5day
and the infrared
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg
and the shortwave ir
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ir2-l.jpg
and the water vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

This lady by far 'aint done her singing yet

Here is a synopsis of the Noaa discussion this morning.

Air Force reserve recon position data, wind and doppler radar data from San Juan combined with satellite imagery indicate that Chris has become much better organized during the past 6 hours. An upper-level eye feature has become apparent, although it is tilted.

While the structure of the storm has become apparent, this specific structuring has not translated into an increase in intensity .. yet!

Upper level outflow has increased in all the quadrants and the convective structure has become more symmetrical.

There are significant differences in how the models handle the intensity and track of Chris, but it is sure that she is organizing, albeit in a compact manner.

In terms of track guidance, four models put her a little northward from the current position, the Canadian model and one other agrees with this but even a little further north, and one lone model puts her Westward, brushing the coast of Puerto Rico and right into Hispaniola.

Intensity models remain problematic. Chris is a small tropical cyclone, which means it can spin up quickly, but also spin down just as quickly.

Tropical storm warmings remain in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands due to the possibility of a strong rain band developing on the South side of Chris and moving over those areas. We will of course be next in line, although the official track still shows the storm passing well North of us.

Give me a little while and check back. I've just done a chart for us where you could see clearly where, how and what.

been playing with google earth

nice eh! Looks like on the current track, the closest the eye storm would be to us, would be around 120 miles. Storm and rain and wind bands do go out wider than that, and that is why I say that we will see an effect on the North Coast.

Depending on how close the storm actually passes, our North Coast beaches will have large waves, and we will have rain and wind. Again, on the current track, not more than rain and winds. Feel free to ask more questions if you have them.