Hurricane Season 2007

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Hope you are all ready and well prepared for anything that may happen during this hurricane season.

We've had some weather models indicate that a possible tropical system is forming in the Western Caribbean. The data is not conclusive hoever. The pattern early in the season certainly indicates activity out there. The DR may be looking at a few wet days again.

An Eastern Pacific weather system may possible be forming - One forecaster suggested that he is saying this as an 'honorable mention' only as it is early days.

After last year's peaceful season, it it quite difficult to get myself ready and 'in the groove'. The expectation of the weather gurus remain that we are going to see an active season.

Watch this space for any future weather developments. This thread will be used for regular overviews of the weather patterns that could influence the local DR weather. The dedicated, loyal and wonderful local reporters will continue with their local reports. If there is a named storm tracking toward the DR, we will break off into a different thread.
 
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Ken

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We lucked out last year because an El Nino formed in late July or early August, about the time the hurricane season is most likely to affect the DR and rest of the Caribbean. But for this year the meteorologists say a La Nina is more likely to influence our weather. This means we can expect a very active season.

My request is that there be no "skyi is falling" threads started when a weather system that the meteorologists say has the potential to develop into a tropical storm forms off the coast of Africa. Let's wait until the weather system is at least at the latitude of St. Lucia before we start thinking it might come our way. That would still give us 3 or 4 days to wring our hands, which should be enough for anyone.

Chris, as the moderator, can you please do us all a favor and step on all the premature alarms before they develop into 3 or 4 page threads?
 

Chris

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Chris, as the moderator, can you please do us all a favor and step on all the premature alarms before they develop into 3 or 4 page threads?

Nothing would give me more pleasure Ken! In fact, you've given me the word .. 'premature'. It sounds so much better than 'early days'.

Let me quote myself ... :cheeky:

"If there is a named storm tracking toward the DR, we will break off into a different thread."
 

Chris

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Things are normal to the eye at least in the DR.

In the atmosphere and in terms of what is happening overall with the weather pattern, things are hopping. In the DR we can expect the normal isolated moderate showers to locally strong thunderstorms, higher humidity than usual, but cooling tradewinds should keep everyone reasonably comfortable.

The panhandle of Florida is expecting its first tropical system around this weekend .. it may be simply a wet tropical storm (and they need the water), or it may develop into something as strong as a Cat 1 hurricane.

In the big weather picture, we've had over the past number of weeks plumes of African Dust crossing the Atlantic and creating that strange haziness that one sometimes sees in the atmosphere. Two remarkable things happened .. it rained in the Sahara Desert and the temperatures in Moscow reached highs in the '90?s.

Quite Strange!

One last comment about tropical storms. The difference between a tropical storm and a Cat 1 hurricane is only 1 mile in hour in windspeed. So, this season, do not underestimate the strength of something that is described as a tropical storm.
 
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Chris

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A little Wet out There.

The story is isolated moderate showers to locally strong thunderstorms. Again, normal for this time of year. The storm that passed the DR late yesterday, is now called Invest 92L (area of investigation) and they're tracking it to check for any development further up the line from us.

One weak tropical wave is floating about in the Atlantic trying to make its way across.

This is what we look like now.

2007satimage.jpg


This is the last day before hurricane season starts officially. Today, or rather tonight, is a blue moon, did you know. And the eastern pacific already has one tropical storm raging with another tropical depression.
 
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Chris

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We still have a very good chance of isolated moderate showers and possible thunderstorms from a fairly large upper level system of anticyclonic flow. This system lies from Florida just about over the whole Caribbean and of course, on top of the DR. Within this system is a small area of cyclonic flow, but this is fast becoming disorganized.

This is what we look like at the time of posting.

1-06-satimage.jpg


There is one weak tropical wave in the Atlantic on its way to us.
 

Chris

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First day of the Hurricane Season

On this first day of the formal hurricane season there still is consensus from the weather gurus that we can expect an active season. Traditionally June has been a quiet month and the hurricane patterns only kick in seriously from about the end of July onwards. However, our area has already had its first extra-tropical storm. Here are the storm and hurricane names for this year.

Andrea - name already used for the first extratropical storm
Barry - is the next name on the list
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabriella
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
 

Hillbilly

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Barry has been used too.

A storm in the Gulf of Mexico, now dissipated.

HB
 

Chris

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There are scattered showers near the DR as a result of an upper high between the Cayman islands and Jamaica ... but, this will move off and we will hopefully get a few dry days. The island is wet overall and we need to dry out before the real weather starts. Generally the skies are fair and the winds are light to moderate Easterly trades.

4-06-satimage.jpg


Tropical waves are rolling in across all directions of the Atlantic -- the East, mid-Atlantic and the West. The one tropical wave present in the Caribbean is just about past us. The other three Tropical Waves still in Atlantic waters remain weak with almost no associated rain.

Goodbye to Barry and watching for Chantal. As most of you know, I'm [SIZE=-1]supersticious[/SIZE] about female storm names.
 

Chris

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There are scattered showers near the DR as a result of an upper high between the Cayman islands and Jamaica ... but, this will move off and we will hopefully get a few dry days. The island is wet overall and we need to dry out before the real weather starts. Generally the skies are fair and the winds are light to moderate Easterly trades. Here is what the water vapor image looks like at the time of posting.

<img src="http://www.caribbetech.com/weatherpics/1-06-wsatimage.jpg">

Tropical waves are rolling in across all directions of the Atlantic -- the East, mid-Atlantic and the West. The one tropical wave present in the Caribbean is just about past us. The other three Tropical Waves still in Atlantic waters remain weak with almost no associated rain.

Goodbye to Barry and watching for Chantal. As most of you know, I'm [SIZE=-1]supersticious[/SIZE] about female hurricane names.
 

Chris

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A quick trip around the country shows high humidity nearly everywhere excepting perhaps Puerto Plata, where we have some dust in the atmosphere.


Las Americas
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the NE (040 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] partly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Weather [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Cumulonimbus clouds observed [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 80 F (27 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 75 F (24 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 83%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>

La Romana
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the ESE (120 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] partly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 82 F (28 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 80 F (27 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 94%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>

Puerto Plata
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Calm [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 4 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] partly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Weather [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Widespread dust [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 82 F (28 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 73 F (23 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 74%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>

Punta Cana
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the E (090 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] mostly clear [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 82 F (28 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 77 F (25 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 83%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>

Santiago
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the E (100 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 2 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] partly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Weather [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Mist [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 80 F (27 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 77 F (25 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 88%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

Chris

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We're still under clear skies with moderate to fresh Easterly Trade Winds. These winds typically carry patches of low cloud with associated isolated tropical showers. There are some patches of clouds just south of us currently. The upper air is dry and stable and conditions are normal for this time of the year.

A Tropical Wave is approaching Trinidad and Tobago at the moment. So, toward the end of the weekend, as this wave reaches us, we should get more rain. As is usual this time of the year, the tropical waves are rolling in with monotonous regularity.

Enjoy the long lazy days of summer!
 

Chris

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Tropical waves .. 4 of them.
In the East Atlantic, another around French Guiana and Suriname, SouthEast Caribbean showing a classic pattern with rain over Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, and another dryish one near Costa Rica.

The Tropical Wave in the South East Caribbean should reach the DR at the end of the weekend/early next week and bring more rain. Up until then, we have moderate to fresh trade winds, dry stable air and generally fair weather with isolated showers and thunderstorms that the wind blows in and common to this time of the year. Even one of these can dump a whole lot of water in a short amount of time. There are some showers in the vicinity of Punta Cana and all of the airports report a little cloudy weather, excepting Santiago where it is clear at the moment.

Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 48 hours.
 

Chris

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Moderate trade winds continue through Sunday and then some showers and thunderstorms associated with the topical wave now raining on the Lesser Antilles will start moving through.

Today we look like this ..

<img src="http://www.caribbetech.com/weatherpics/9-06-satimage.jpg">
 

Chris

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Its easier to see what is happening in our area on the water vapor image today .. If you look carefully, you'll see the little blue dots over the DR showing a high probability of rain in our area.

11-06-wsatimage.jpg


We have one tropical wave along 72/73 West (the one with the blue, orange and purple spots on the water vapor image). And then a second one along 82/83 West and South of 16 North moving west at around 18 miles per hour.

We have anti-cyclonic wind flow across the DR at present although conditions developing up North/North West of us may change this. With all the weather around, we will get our fair share of tropical showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the next few days as the 1st wave still has an afterthought influence and the 2nd wave passes us.

A further two tropical waves are making their way towards us across the Atlantic.

Las Americas reports
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the SSE (160 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] partly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Weather [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Cumulonimbus clouds observed [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 84 F (29 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 77 F (25 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 79%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
Puerto Plata reports
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the ESE (110 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] mostly clear [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 82 F (28 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 73 F (23 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 74%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
Santiago reports
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the E (100 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] mostly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 78 F (26 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 77 F (25 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 94%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
Punta Cana reports
<table><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Wind [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] from the ESE (120 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Visibility [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] greater than 7 mile(s) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Sky conditions [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] partly cloudy [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Temperature [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 86 F (30 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Heat index [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 96.8 F (36.0 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Dew Point [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 77 F (25 C) [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td align="right" bgcolor="#ffffff">[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Relative Humidity [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 74%[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
(Look at that heat index!)
 
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Chris

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From a rather complex weather story, we are under mostly cloudy skies and can expect isolated moderate showers today still. It looks like there are a few clear days on the horizon after this cloud cover dissipates. All the tropical waves in the Caribbean are now past us and the next two are still making their way to us across the Atlantic.
 

Chris

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The overall weather picture is still complex but for us, broken multi-layered clouds. There are some light showers in the Punta Cana Area currently.

The Northwestern Caribbean sea has a large area of cloudiness and showers with a broad area of low pressure. Besides bringing us a little more rain than usual around the fringes of this, (which is welcome to cool things down) it should not affect us.

The general pattern is clear skies in the mornings, then the clouds roll in, as the earth cools off toward the evening, we get our usual tropical showers / isolated thunderstorms late afternoon and sometimes into the evening.

It is hot and humid - the airports report temperatures between [FONT=Arial,Helvetica] 97.5F and 99.5F - around 36/37C. [/FONT]
 
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Chris

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We are under mostly clear skies, excepting on the South Coast in patches, where conditions are mostly cloudy. Conditions should remain like this for a few days as there are no tropical waves close to heading our way right at present. There seems to be widespread African dust over the coastal regions. The picture for today ..

16-06-satimage.jpg