Pressure on the peso ?

Jan 9, 2004
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The Dominican peso appears to be starting to come under some pressure.

Tax collections are indicated down, remittances have been falling for some time, tourism will be slow to recover, and the borrowings and attempted borrowings of the government are on the increase. Add to this the usual upcoming mid term election over-spending, the DR's refusal to engage in a new standby agreement with the IMF (at least until those elections are over) and the current deficit spending taking place and what you get is a peso that appears to be under moderate pressure for the near term.

I do hope they have enough hard currency reserves to withstand this pressure, but I surely would not be a buyer of Central Bank Certificates, at the current rate, looking out over the next year.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
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Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
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I agree with you. Today's headlines have Bengoa admitting to a nearly 9.9 billion shortfall in tax collections over the first 7+ months; Leonel announcing 15,000 more housing units financed with loans, and the Presidential Social Plan announcing a freeze in subsidies (BonoGas, BonoLuz, Solidaridad)...
And yesterday the dollar was at 36.05 and 36.17, up 10? from a week ago.

HB
 

ExtremeR

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Mar 22, 2006
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As long as there is international credit available, I don't believe the peso will suffer any drastic change in devaluation, add to this the nearly US$200MM the DR will receive by the sell of 49% of the stocks of the Oil Refinery.
 
Jan 9, 2004
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I concur that the peso.....

should not suffer a drastic change as in the Mejia years, but it is definitely under pressure and you will undoubtedly see that reflected in the exchange rate via quicker and sharper swings.

As to international credit availability, that is part of the DR's current problem. They have borrowed more than their current ability to repay, and now they wish to borrow more. No nation can continously borrow or tax its way to prosperity.

With regard to the 49% sale of the refinery, I think you will find that little, if any, money changed hands. This is merely a book keeping entry to help offset the severe balance of payments owed by the DR to Venezuela for the discounted oil they have been receiving. If such is not the case, and the DR receives every dollar of the purchase price, I highly doubt it would carry the DR for more than a few months time.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2



As long as there is international credit available, I don't believe the peso will suffer any drastic change in devaluation, add to this the nearly US$200MM the DR will receive by the sell of 49% of the stocks of the Oil Refinery.
 

ExtremeR

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Mar 22, 2006
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Haven't you guys heard of the beans for oil deal the DR has with Venezuela?
Check it out

Also, the problem here is the dollar exchange rate, not the government deficit, if the government gets ahold of those refinery sale millions plus some international borrowed money, I will seriously doubt the dollar falls to the 39-40 pesos range. The current Central Bank administration has been pretty steady with the exchange rate administration in order to promote confidence in international investors. We remember the sad PRD days, but those guys at the Central Bank now aren't your old friends Malkum and Andy Dauhajre. This guys know what they are doing.
 
Jan 9, 2004
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Those beans exported to Venezuela...

only serve to pay back a very small portion of the debt owed by the DR under Petrocaribe. The balance of that debt, while deferred, must eventually be paid back in other ways.

Since 2005 when the DR signed on to Petrocaribe, the bills have been mounting. I believe when the dust finally settles, the refinery deal will have been a part of the payment on that agreement. Of course, from a diplomatic perspective and a possible photo opportunity, you may see a Venezuelan official handing a check to a DR government official. But in the end, that money will flow right back to Venezuela.

The exchange rate, while officially controlled by the DR government, as opposed to being freely set in the world markets, has little choice but to rise as the country continues to borrow heavily to offset the deficit. As lending institutions worldwide see the deficit of the DR climbing and its attempted borrowings increase, they demand higher interest rates to lend to the DR, which further increases the debt that must eventually be repaid, which eventually forces them to offer more pesos per dollar, euro etc., to attract more hard currencies into buying CB certificates etc., with which to pay those ever incresing foreign debts, which forces them to print more pesos, which then puts upward pressure on the exchange rate.

At this point I do agree that, near term, the peso does not look to devalue to the 39-40 range, but if the DR continues to borrow and spend at the pace they are on without a resultant increase in tourism, exports, remittances etc., or a decrease in spending, the economic damage long term to the economy could be another sharp decline in the value of the peso. While I expect a new standby agreement with the IMF to be signed in the future (I am not a big fan of the IMF but I do believe they will help put the brakes on the current DR spending spree) that agreement will likely not be signed until after mid term elections.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2



Haven't you guys heard of the beans for oil deal the DR has with Venezuela?
Check it out

Also, the problem here is the dollar exchange rate, not the government deficit, if the government gets ahold of those refinery sale millions plus some international borrowed money, I will seriously doubt the dollar falls to the 39-40 pesos range. The current Central Bank administration has been pretty steady with the exchange rate administration in order to promote confidence in international investors. We remember the sad PRD days, but those guys at the Central Bank now aren't your old friends Malkum and Andy Dauhajre. This guys know what they are doing.
 

Malibook

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Jan 23, 2002
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I was thinking that the US peso has been under some pressure with the US peso index recently hitting new lows for the year and trending down.
US Dollar Index

Not surprising with the Federal Reserve being a substantial buyer of US treasuries recently.
Bernanke still claims he will not monetize the debt.

My US pesos have been driving down the consolidated balance of my Canadian broker account.

I have some leftover Dominican and US pesos that I want to go spend soon.
 
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mountainannie

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Dec 11, 2003
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Have a good laugh!

I was thinking that the US peso has been under some pressure with the US peso index recently hitting new lows for the year and trending down.
US Dollar Index

Not surprising with the Federal Reserve being a substantial buyer of US treasuries recently.
Bernanke still claims he will not monetize the debt.

My US pesos have been driving down the consolidated balance of my Canadian broker account.

I have some leftover Dominican and US pesos that I want to go spend soon.

That's right, go ahead and kick us while we are down, you whom everybody likes! You with the functioning national health care system. You with excess oil in Alberta. You with only a few little nasty incidents with your Native schools and those pesky Quebec separatists.

I remember when the Canadian dollar first went above the US dollar, when was that, four years ago? No, it's ok, we need the tourism. And someone has to come shop at the Mall of America because we can't afford to because we have to bail out the banks.

But I would not count the Yanks out just yet. After all, we actually beat the British, didn't we? The only one of the family to take on the Mother Empire.
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
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Where's Pichardo? Surely this has an upside. ;)

I am sure Pichardo will weigh in from Jackson Hole after the lunch break!

Did you say Jackson Hole??? I'm going there next month for a week, will look for Pichardo and post photos.;)

While the Cat's away...

There's no upside to anything other than a real good imagination from some people here...

The DR Peso has been under pressure long ago, not the tendency that causes it to shoot down in value, but over that of the US Dollar...

We currently (and since the post Hipolito renaissance) have kept the Peso undervalued about 5% to as much as 10% to the all mighty US Peso...

This was possible by simple economics! In order to remain competitive in US markets, DR goods must retain carried value against the region and most others source markets. The CB eats the % difference in value, using the reserves to cover for the drop in loses to the set exchange rate.

As of lately, the tendency is to let the rate float without supports, since the value has topped off once the better part of the US crisis drove the Dollar over the 5% and within the 10% parity to current levels.

The national debt is compounded as the ratio shrinks and reserves can't hold the depreciating Peso difference on the downturn. Having your peso lose value while a falling economy is upended, is not productive at all...

That's the reason why our inflation index kept in check and still grows in very small percentages to that of the region.

Make no mistake about it, once the economy trends to recovery, the DR Peso will once again find itself under the spell of the CB and their quasi control rate.

While taxes from revenues have fallen, mainly on the imported goods; the tax revenue recovered rate for internal receipts has grown to larger amounts. That's indicative of trends to consume local brands over imports, hence why the local industry is posting above average profits in the internal economy index.

No wonder groups like CCN has been opening JUMBOs, like if they were popping popcorn on a party...

Next year will bring new challenges to our internal revenues collection, as new stages from DR-Cafta enter their effective dates as agreed. Not only that, but we're also aiming to have the Caricom and Cariforum trade agreements in play as well.

The dynamics of currency fielding will change as I posted here before. You'll see how to purchase certain imported goods, foreign currency will be mandated over national to some equations. Releasing the CB from pursuing external currency reserves for the internal markets, is going to be step #1 of the encompassing electronic currency system.

As tariffs and limits come down, the effectiveness of the internal revenues agency must meet the challenges ahead and come out the as the winner.

You shouldn't be worrying about the DR Peso's value, but of becoming adept to dealing in foreign currency and remaining a good value for the cost to clients.

Pesos will always remain the DR currency; just not in paper or metal to be handled other than internally, by banks.

There's a fine way to discover how much the set rate keeps to the actual value of your pesos:

Purchasing parity!!! Using the Mac Index you can find out pretty much the real rate of your Pesos over that in the US Dollars...




...the mice will play!
p0078.png
 

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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Make no mistake about it, once the economy trends to recovery, the DR Peso will once again find itself under the spell of the CB and their quasi control rate.
But but but....

I thought the economy was BOOMING and the DR was immune from economic downturn.

:confused:
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,280
893
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
But but but....

I thought the economy was BOOMING and the DR was immune from economic downturn.

:confused:

Cobra: Read the post again... You and your minions are the only ones using "immunity" and "booming" monikers...

The fact remains the same; the effects of the US crisis affected the export markets/external economy of the country, not so much the internal.

The value of the Peso is not indicative of a local downturn, but the actual reflex of trade value and strength in the external affected economy.

The DR economy is still posting above average net profits for the 3dr Qtr of 2009... While the external economy is on the recovery path, our export driven economy is on the rebound as well.

Capital expenditure from the gov, is one of the reasons we are in a financial downturn in the public sector. Not so the internal economy!

Like I posted before, property values in the DR if anything has continued to keep pace and will in the mid term continue to rise.

What we have is an insolvent gov, loaded with debt from decades of corruption and mismanagement in most public agencies.

The electricity problem for example, is nothing more than 90% uncollected service to major sectors of the population. Add to that the gov's unpaid dues, which only meet the bills from generators when the switch is put to off...

Those are facts, not colored glasses...
 

Expat13

Silver
Jun 7, 2008
3,255
50
48
Like I posted before, property values in the DR if anything has continued to keep pace and will in the mid term continue to rise.

Are real estate prices in the DR not appraised based on supply and demand as is most countries? or simply just by the list price?

I believe the reason Real Estate prices have remained the same or possibly increased is primarily the way Dominicans deal with their selling practices.
It looks to me the market is in a noticeable decline, but the sellers do not react by reducing pricing therefore "no sales".
These said property values are based on unsold list prices that are not reality.
You can try and sell nickel for a dollar, but at the end the day when it doesnt sell, your still left with a nickel.
DR Marketing 101= If sales are down 50%, simple, increase the price 50%.
 

CFA123

Silver
May 29, 2004
3,512
413
83
Are real estate prices in the DR not appraised based on supply and demand as is most countries? or simply just by the list price?

I believe the reason Real Estate prices have remained the same or possibly increased is primarily the way Dominicans deal with their selling practices.
It looks to me the market is in a noticeable decline, but the sellers do not react by reducing pricing therefore "no sales".
These said property values are based on unsold list prices that are not reality.
You can try and sell nickel for a dollar, but at the end the day when it doesnt sell, your still left with a nickel.
DR Marketing 101= If sales are down 50%, simple, increase the price 50%.

I think Pichardo's probably right once you get away from the resort area markets where prices have been driven in the past by foreign purchases.

You, Expat13, are right when it comes to talking about the resort area real estate market.
 

bienamor

Kansas redneck an proud of it
Apr 23, 2004
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I see housing all over the Capital

I think Pichardo's probably right once you get away from the resort area markets where prices have been driven in the past by foreign purchases.

You, Expat13, are right when it comes to talking about the resort area real estate market.

Houses Apartments are going for set amounts, I know of both that have been sitting empty for over a year, still not sold or rented, still asking the same money.

The idea on sales is mi tio in nueba yol gets this much so mine must be worth the same or more, forgetting the fact that the NY infrastructure is not there.
look at all the buildings setting and rotting on El Conde! Beautiful old structures just rotting away, if you bought one it needs gutted and completly redone. and they want a million us plus if not 2 million plus or more. and then another million+ to redo it. I know that some of these have been empty for more than 10 years.
 

ExtremeR

Silver
Mar 22, 2006
3,078
328
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Points to Pichardo to remind that the peso was undervalued in purpose by the Central Bank in the first years of the first term of Leonel government. I remember as if it was know the meetings the Central Bank Governor held with Zona Franca and Tourism representatives in order to push the peso to devaluate for them to be competitive in the international market.

I believe the biggest test to the exchange rate came in first half of 2008 when oil hit US$150 a barrel, plus the reckless spending in the whole country due to the elections. If it didn't devaluate then it won't devaluate now.