2013, the Storms and the Fisherman in Paradise

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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oooh,
good to see that the maintenance run seems to be finished very quick, goooood, thumbs up to the DR1 Team.

98L is now completely disorganized and chances are low near zero to get a Storm out of it.
but of course all the rain is still there and moving westward hoo, just not concentrated around a defined center, it is spread out over a very large elongated area.
the mainportion is still forecasted to pass near the northernmost Islands, but the whole thingy over all will spread out rains far to it's west on long range into the caribbean Sea, the first Antilles had it already last night.
we keep watching to see that it really moves more to the northwest, as such is still not seen, to me it moves since early yesterday mostly Westward, towards the Islands.
at least it is no threat at all, where ever it may move to.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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just checked on the Sat shots,
i would estimate the "Center" around 15.5"North and 52" West, and that piece is moving on the loop of the last hours WNW'wards, that would really bring it up north to pass finally East of the northernmost islands.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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we have to watch out for the disturbance located North of the DR, just a couple hundred miles east of the Bahamas.
it's clouds and rains are already over the DR and will be the mayor influence on our weather for the next days.
it should move slowly NNEwards, nothing of any danger, but some cloudies, fresh air, gardens watered automatically and da Mozzies breding as usual this time of the year.
so we are again in Dengue Season i guess.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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while we have some rain hanging on our south , and bigger amounts off the north(not expected to move far enough south to bother), former invest 98L went apart completely and it's rainareas diminished, nothing left than a dry wave east of the central antilles.
nothing is expected to form up anywhere in our area of influence for the next days, so it looks like we are fine for the remainder of this young week.

have a good one

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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been all quiet this 2013 hurricane season, and as far as our Paradise Island is concerned it will stay quiet for the next several days.
around 500 miles East of Bermuda Tropical Depression #13 formed up.
it will not be a threat for any landareas, wandering ENE wards over open atlantic waters til its sudden deadth over cool waters and high windshear in a few days.

nothing expected to come up for the Tropical Atlantic so far.
as for a long range outlook:
conditions for the tropical atlantic, caribbean sea and gulf of mexico will get more favorable for formations starting the last days of this month/october and during the at least first half of november.
most likely hot spot region for TD's and TS' to get chances to form will be for the first days of that time frame the western caribbean Sea.

no worries for our soil so far

go ahead, weather, keep me burning to have a reason for a cold drink

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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o.k. Peeps,
if we stay lucky this may be my last post for this 2013 Hurricane/Stormy season.

conditions over the tropical atlantic are dry and show extreme high windshears, those conditions are on the long range outlooks expected to continue for many weeks, so as far as the tropical atlantic(da piece of water between Africa and the Antilles) is concered, we can call it done for this year. in addition to the unfavorable conditions out there the African Monsun is down and will not spit any new waves out on the atlantic at the Cap Verde Islands.

the Gulf of Mexico and the surroundings of the Bahamas show the same dry and high windshear conditions, so upcoming Storms in those regions are very unlikely.

leaves just the Caribbean Sea as usual as the last spot where a lil Storm could come up and have some Fun in the Caribbean.
for the reminder of this year 2013 the conditions over the western and central caribbean Sea are in favor of the Stormies right now and til mid month/15th, no later than 20th, then the conditions are expected to change to the opposite, waters cool down and the atmosphere runs dryer, with windshears rising(at the moment the caribbean sea is under just medium to even low windshear.

IF the season provides us with an other Tropical Storm, then most likely such would happen in the Western Caribbean Sea, which keeps us on the safe side of island life(unless such bugger runs like back in the day the hurricane named "wrong way Lenny", who walked from right there ENE'wards and did huge damages in the northern lesser Antilles with a significant deadroll.

from my point of view this season is OVER,
we can concentrate on christmas now, so get da Fridges stocked and let your beloved Wifes know what Papi wanna get under da Christmas Tree.

hear ya again next summer for a hopefully again lame and boring 2014 Hurricane Season

Mike
 

Ringo

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Mar 6, 2003
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Good job Mike. Now you actually have to go to the boats and work until next hurricane season?

If you miss your weather job, you can always drop into our Local Weather thread and help out. :)
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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i will just take some months off and travel a bit.
it sucks to see day by day thousands of tourists tramplin' over my Beach here, now i wanna trample over someone else's backyard, lol

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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non tropical formation, now named Melissa, started last evening to produce gale force winds and continued during the night and this morning to loacted them around it's low pressure center.
it's not a concern for our Soil, located somewhere 700 miles ESE of Bermuda walking towards the NW, that's more or less the direction to the Canadian Maritimes, but i did not check on tracking or such, as it is not in our vicinity.
our surroundings show a nice safe dry atmosphere, we will receive the next few months our usual winter breezes and showers and waves, but should not be anything for a wild time.
Melissa is on our NE, very far out, and as the are between us and her is dry, i don't expect her to push down rains of significance.

time to the the children from school and bring them to their birthday afternoon on Macao Beach.
yep, both have their birthday together today, so Daddy is allowed to have double beers while watching da Breed there, lol.

nothing of concern in our vicinity, our Island's Hurricane Season is nice early over this year, at least it looks that way since a couple weeks.

Mike
 

Rep Dom

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Dec 27, 2011
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probably, and i remember a few months ago that I read it would probably be a hard one, so.....................
:)
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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the quietest Hurricane Season ever??
how you would come to such conclusion?
we had 13 named storms and other other caribbean countries show quiet a dead roll for this season. Mexico and their Yucatan Peninsula are sure not under the imression of a quietest season ever, lol.
that we had no mayor effects in the DR, specially here in PC on the East, is nothing unusual, as the DR is not often significantly effected by Tropical Cyclones.
the forecasts for the season been 16-19 named storms, til now we have only 13, thats well below the forecast, Goood. but not much out of the ordinary low.
for the DR it was low, but that's not unusual either.
over all the conditions been in constellations against quick storm developments, hence the few storms around did not grow up quick enough to become mayor cyclones, the difference from that to a series of big ones would have been some small details to occure a couple days earlier or later than they occured, and we would have seen 2-3 strong Hurricanes right here, but by the luck of the draw those formations stayed week for the time frame within our vicinity.

would be nice to have every season running that way as far as the DR goes, but there's always a next year and a next year, mother nature has her plans and we can't forecast them.

for now, let's just hope it will not snow too much on christmas even in PC, as i like to sit out there on the pier with a good wine, the snowmobile is not ready, yet, hehe.

Mike
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Dear Mike:
From my cubby hole here in Santiago, I would like to thank you for your efforts this year. It is really comforting to know that there is someone out there who is quite capable of letting us know when something is coming along the Highway.

Thanks for the great effort spent this year. You must know that it is appreciated by a great many people!! Really.

Cordially,

HB
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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www.mikefisher.fun
HB,
you have to leave your cubby whole more often and come towards your family on the east, it would be my pleasure to have a chat with your over a nice breakfast at Juanillo Beach. you have your kittens still living over here, right?

as for the raminder of the "season",
there are really zero indications that we could get anything up again this year.
what we will get from now on are the bit cooler nasty winds and rains which are usual for the winter months on the island, at least here on the East/PC the smoother time of the year is "most time" the spring and summer, what others fear as hurricane season, as fact 80% of cancelations i have on my fishing charters due rough Ocean Conditions do occure during the winter months, not during hurricane season.

Mike
 
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