2015 Hurricane Season

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Olly

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Quiet season ahead!?

By courtesy of Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands

It is that time of the year again for the traditional forecast of the upcoming hurricane season by Klotzbach&Gray at Colorado State University. Some good news, it is supposed to be a quiet season. They predict only 7 named storms (normal is 12) of which 3 will become a hurricane (6.5 is normal), one of those will grow into a major hurricane (Category 3 and up). The main reason for it is that it should be an El Ni?o year again and the relatively cold sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

We were supposed to have an El Ni?o during last hurricane season as well, but it formed later and was weaker than expected, but we had still a relatively quiet season. This year most dynamical models are calling for a moderate to strong El Ni?o event from August to October, nicely during the traditional peak of hurricane season. Hopefully this all pans out, but as always, remember that even in a slow season, that one big hurricane could make landfall on your beautiful island! -Gert

Thank you Gert for the info.

Olly and the Team
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Naaa, WUD.
Olly is doing right and just fine.
i was not even able to log into DR1 during last season, for reasons which been explained to me to be a problem with Claro, just that i could use every bord on the wide cyberspace but DR1, well, so where may the problem have been?
while is can log in and post during the last months fine, this year the mayor trouble is that of many new posts i do not get the usual e-mail notifications about the new posts on a followed Topic, or for example here on the subscribed to Section about Weather&Beyond. i found this Topic here right now by coincedence, but it is 4 days old and i am subscribed to the whole Section/topic, but no notification about the new addy.
without such simple features working it is not worth to try to keep such theme up to date, as logging in many times per day and "searching" for new addies is not an option, it would be a waste of time which can be used otherwise.
Olly is nice on the things around the weather and seems to do fine to check the bord for new additions/answers/postings.
myself i will stick to check the weather and conditions and storms as needed for my business and safety of the boats and family, but no follow up on predictions or such for other than the own needs.

Mike
 

jstarebel

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Oct 4, 2013
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MikeFisher

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Saw this today, and it's not even June yet. Funny that they're calling for such a slow season.. But who knows???

sorry buddy, but you guys have to read the whole forecast articles, not just the headlines which correctly state "calm season ahead".
the calm season forecast(Olly provided at the beginning the correct links with the complete info) does state exactly the reasons why it calls for a calm season over all, and it also states the Danger Zones where most of the season's Storm Activity is awaited to happen as the conditions in those areas are good for stormies, while the conditions are bad for stormies on da Highway between Africa and the Caribbean, bad in the central and eastern caribbean Sea.
conditions are awaited (and always are) to be good for storm formations along the United States East shores, special the anyways dangerzone SE-USA, conditions are due that also favorable north northwest of our Island, also favorable for the whole Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean Sea, which includes Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, all Gulf Coastlines and the SE USA as the Mayor Formation and Hit Zones for the 2015 Hurricane Season. as in those mentioned danger areas typically Storms form up close to land, they do not have much time over water before making landfall, hence the storms forming there can be awaited to stay within the power measures of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Cat1 categories. a Mayor Hurricane needs time and space to gain such highpowers, hence those big ones are the ones who form further off the Coasts and then grow bigger and bigger with time while walking towards their final destin.
always keep in mind that aboce stated is just a general look on things, of course anything of the contrary could always happen, as that Mom Nature is not that easy to have a look on, and da Biach quiet often changes her mind, hence she's a female, lol.

Mike
 

jstarebel

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The links I posted in my first post showed the different risk zones Mike. I saw them, but to start before June is a little scary. Especially for a boat owner. Ordinarily, I don't start worrying until August. I even decided to move my boat to Anguilla later this month after looking at the zones that you mention because Anguilla is in a low risk zone, and Anguilla also got hit by a hurricane last year so I'm figuring based on the law of averages that they wont get hit this year. No place for a boat to hide in Anguilla except on St. Maarten, and it's really not that great. It's a 14 hr sail back to the safety of a mangrove lagoon in St. Thomas if something comes up. Take care Mike!
 

MikeFisher

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The links I posted in my first post showed the different risk zones Mike. I saw them, but to start before June is a little scary. Especially for a boat owner. Ordinarily, I don't start worrying until August. I even decided to move my boat to Anguilla later this month after looking at the zones that you mention because Anguilla is in a low risk zone, and Anguilla also got hit by a hurricane last year so I'm figuring based on the law of averages that they wont get hit this year. No place for a boat to hide in Anguilla except on St. Maarten, and it's really not that great. It's a 14 hr sail back to the safety of a mangrove lagoon in St. Thomas if something comes up. Take care Mike!

yes, agreed on the probability calculations.
you have the mangroves there, we had for decades only the (not very safe) Rivers to hide in, here on the Isle.
since the Cap Cana Marina is finished we have luckily a safe-hole right here, the Marina is the only north caribbean Marina accepted by Insurers up to Hurricane Cat1 force. to get hit by anything awaited bigger than a Cat1 Category Hurricane would be for here(the southern tip of the DR Eastshores around Punta Cana/Cap Cana) some superbig historical Hit, so i guess we are safe to say i never again need to move the boats elsewhere for any storm, as i am since 4 years permanently based at that Marina as my Homebase.
good luck to you, too

Mike
 

AlterEgo

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The names of the storms for 2015, Ana already used:

19404_10206964688940015_1453600857704370221_n.jpg
 

MikeFisher

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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I am washing.
wanna join?
hehe
my chihuahua is such a coward, a lil thunder in the far distance and she starts to hide.
she is freaked out since a couple hours now and will have a hard night i guess.

Mike
 

Rep Dom

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Dec 27, 2011
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Well, well, I remember 2 years ago, there were warnings everywhere : the hurricane season will be wild...
And then what happened? Casi nada. IMHO this can not be forecasted. And thats part of it...
:)
 

Black Dog

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May 29, 2009
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I am washing.
wanna join?
hehe
my chihuahua is such a coward, a lil thunder in the far distance and she starts to hide.
she is freaked out since a couple hours now and will have a hard night i guess.

Mike

Mike, don't be too hard on your chihuahua buddy, my 125LB + rottweiler was just the same!
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Mike, don't be too hard on your chihuahua buddy, my 125LB + rottweiler was just the same!

haha, right, it's not about size.
my partner has a monster of a Rhodesian Ridgeback Lady, the same cowards once a single thunder in the far away distance heard, lol.
as for the moving in/by weather,
here on the East we are today cloudy but under perfectly calm Sea Conditions.
so far no more rain since last nights showers.
wind is on the very low side.
it's just weather, nothing to follow up about

Mike
 
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