2015 Hurricane Season

Status
Not open for further replies.

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the clouds of what was 1200 miles ago Grace,
are right over the Southeast-Southcentral of the Isle.
it does not contain any significant rain nor winds.
here on the southern tip of the eastshores we are dry this morning,
some clouds are around but nothing too dark at this moment,
wind is very low.
no mentionable effects of former Grace.

Invest 93L on the far East should manage to become the next TD for the Season,
but is still missing a lot to become TS Ida.
the system is very wide and that close to the 10thN struggles to get a common spin to things.
organization should show up and improve somewhat til mid week,
but nothing scary in the make so far.
as soon as it gets a bit more powers, it should move NW towards Nowhere-Land.
looks all fine for the Isle so far, and should stay that way for several more days.
some isolated areas will get lucky to catch some showers today and tomorrow,
most will not win any of such lottery prices.

Mike
 

Cdn_Gringo

Gold
Apr 29, 2014
8,671
1,133
113
Currently mostly cloudy and breezy in Sosua. 31C with 61% humidity that is rising. Barometer steady for the last three hours at 101.7.

About 2 minutes of drizzle 30 minutes ago in my backyard. Maybe more showers will develop this afternoon.
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
18,948
514
113
Santiago is as dry as a bone in the Mojave Desert...

A couple of nights ago we had a little rain that left puddles in the streets--until the sun came up. :(

HB
 
Aug 21, 2007
3,043
1,970
113
Drove from Santiago to Sosua via Jamao. From Jamao almost to Sosua - rain. Closer I got to Sosua - more rain (cats and dogs, in parts.) Sosua, mostly sunny - bone dry.

Lindsey
 
Jan 9, 2004
10,897
2,224
113
Periods of intermittent light rain, but fairly strong wind gusts in Moca. Feels much like a cool front trying to push through.

Skies are very dark to the E NE.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Mike, can you explain how El Nino affects DR? This news special says it will last until next year:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/get-ready-for-one-of-the-strongest-el-ninos-ever/

my sunday passed dry today.
no wind around, and it is beautiful in case of temps, as a light cloud cover keeps a lot of the summer heat off.
couldn't be better for a beach sunday.

El Ni?o.
as far as your USA soil goes, the SW and the Gulf Region should get more frequent and stronger winter storms, more rain, which sure will be appreciated.
after years of record heats and record near droughts, a winter with some more rain than usual should not be something bad, even that one single winter could never make up for half a decade of far below average/record near drought conditions, to recompensate for former water losses the necessary water amount would be a costy months lasting flooding, lol.
this coming winter the SW and Gulf Region should get happy with above average rain amounts.
such effects in the south usually come with opposite effects for the northern regions, ones gain is the other's lost.
as for our tropical atlantic region, around Paradise Island,
we do already profit from the mid and eastern pacific conditions all summer long.
what El Ni?o is producing on our side of the planet is strong west to eastern winds in the upper atmosphere,
those winds blow the opposite direction as the usual easterly to westerly blowing winds mid atmosphere and close to ground levels.
that difference of high level and mid/low level winds is what is so often mentioned in hurricane intensification forecasts, it is named Windshear.
such windshear is a significant hindering factor affecting negatively the development of a brewing storm, or hindering a storm to form out of a area of disturbed weather at all from the beginning.
low windshear below 10Knots is not bothering a storm at all, bothers little to nothing even weaker stormy systems, so they can develop/increase powers when other factors like warm sea surface waters and a moistured mid atmosphere surrounding are present.
over 10 and below 20Knots, weaker systems get in trouble, specially when dry air or Saharan Sand are in vicinity, stronger stormy systems develop but on a significantly slower pace than they would otherwise.
over 20 Knots, specially once the 25Knots margin is exceeded, even strong storms have troubles to develop, in co-work with other factors like dry air areas nearby, even strong storms can not keep their powers for too long and start to adjust downwards on the scales day by day.
so under the line,
a El Ni?o effect provides our tropical island with the chances to get less dangers of strong devastating storms to form and make all their way from Africa over here, to be still intact enough to be a threat.
but like any other factor on a storm's birth and then development,
it is just something that betters or worsen's chances,
El Ni?o alone does not mean to guaranteed not get a mayor hurricane near our home,
and the absence of a El Ni?o event/or the presence of it's opposite occurance, named La Ni?a, does not automatically mean to get one mayor hurricane after the other lined up to pass the Islands of the Caribbean.
those events are just shifting the chances of such to happen or to be hindered in a usually well noticable way/amount.
we are almost thru the peak time of Hurricane Season as far as Hispa?ola is concerned, and this year it worked in our favor, so much that we are almost crying out loud for a lil tropical depression to arrive, with lower 20Knots winds and a couple days of stronger downpours, chances for that cry to be heard by higher powers, are Not zero but very slim.
the forecasts suggerate that the actual El Ni?o will last long, deep into next spring,
so statistically(there is no forecast for such, yet) we may face extremely different conditions next summer here, as a so late in spring ending El Ni?o would not provide any El Ni?o-near conditions for mid summer, when we pass that season's peak time frame again.
all those studies are very vague thingies, the professionals are learning significantly more year by year, event by event, as not too long ago nobody paid big attention to such events in case of forecasting conditions/weather a year in advance.
the reality:
the Pro's still need to find a way to tell me about the weather of Tomorrow with a guarantee, lol.

we are already living a positive effect of that El Ni?o Event here in the caribbean,
for the USA on the SW and Gulf Region it should bring some significant relief form the last several years of drought conditions.
the usual fear mongers of the media sure will report about coming Billion Dollars life threatening Flooding Desasters as usual, while more likely the big northern brother will safe even more billions over all on heating costs when a winter runs a couple weeks shorter, brings a bit less snow to some regions and runs just a tad bit warmer than the average winter of the last century did.
but again,
that's all a heck of speculations, professionals are not sure what to think about,
as El Ni?o is only One of Many factors which decide about weather conditions, rain or drought, cold or warmer, snow or swimming pool, one event alone out of the number of significant influencing factors, will not break the bank.

but it is a name know by many, since the media started to mention such often since a decade or so,
so they have something to hype up on, that brings the needed quotes to run TV stations,
and once the hurricane season ended those bubble heads still need something to talk about.
i love those Chics in their sexy outfits and pretty faces,
but i watch those weather forecasts Always with the sound volume on Zero,
to focus on the only signifant stuff shown there.

Mike
 

Drake

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
667
23
18
22mm or just under 1 inch of rain in santo domingo today. First cool evening in a long time. 25.6c
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
lucky duck.
we've been on da veranda with friends til right now,
and not more than a few thunders and maybe a total of 10 minutes rain,
counting the short sprinklings together,
for the whole evening.
i get jealous

Mike
 

AlterEgo

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 9, 2009
23,097
6,247
113
South Coast
Thanks for the El Nino explanation - and I've always been curious about the storm directions. In the US they usually move west to east - but in DR they mostly move east to west. Nice visual in my head now about where those two wind directions meet.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Hey Mike!!

TD#1 looks interesting....WNW.....maybe???

Fingers crossed here.

HB

HB,
actually there is no TD anywhere on the Planet active,
i assume you mean the disturbance mid-Highways, by the NHC assignated/named Invest 93L?
it should become the next TD or also TS-Ida, yes,
but it is a very small area with weak thunderstorm activity and at this moment running very dry, not much rained pushed around there.
the tracking forecasts bring it NW'wards to the central Atlantic, not awaited to come close to Land anywhere.
the big one is the disturbance just off the african westshores,
the NHC names it Invest 95L.
still not much organization visible, but it is early/young.
it is a wide area with a good amount of moisture/water pushed around.
closer to the weekend we will see what may come out of it and what way it could go.
by the actually blowing winds it would also get a NW tracking by mid-highway, but such can of course change completely the next many days before it will arrive there.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Thanks for the El Nino explanation - and I've always been curious about the storm directions. In the US they usually move west to east - but in DR they mostly move east to west. Nice visual in my head now about where those two wind directions meet.

andthose winds around the SW'ern US are not very nice this time of the eyar,
as it is that dangerous Wildfire Season again.
honestly, i fear such stuff much more than any windpowers or rain and flooding.
let's hope that a strong El Ni?o Event will bring some relief for those regions to become less dry for next season,
as they are running already the 4th consecutive year of severe drought.

those Wildfires are really some scary shyt

[video=youtube_share;0lVPB3HI9Wg]https://youtu.be/0lVPB3HI9Wg[/video]

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
no dangers anywhere out there for our Isle.
i guess here on the East, we am not the only ones on the Island who get some nice refreshing short showers the last couple nights.
light clouds move thru during the days and make the usual summer humidity so very much more comfy,
the eastertn and southeastern parts should continue that nice game during today,
for other areas i have no view on the cloudcover.
how's it been the last couple days/nights around the Island?

as far as the quiet Highway goes,
Invest93L, located on the half way point between "there" and "here", lol,
will very likely become a TD by this morning's 11AM update at the NHC.
it is the system's last chance to get recogniced as a lil something, as it enters proximity to our defense shield.
24 more hrs and it should start to go downwards quickly over cooler waters and strong windshear.

the far away Invest 95L SW of the Cape Verde's,
look's also almost ready to become a TD number.
conditions are so-so for the next days, so it should improve somewhat, but no biggie on the radar to form so far.

light cloud cover, fresh air, no stormy dangers around and evening/night showers,
well,
sounds all good to me

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,766
2,195
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
TD 9 is born out of Invest 93L on mid highway,
but the same as Invest 95L on the far eastern highway,
on a NW'ern tracking with no chances to bother a thing anywhere near our soil,
most likely no Land anywhere at all.

looks all fine so far for the next days,
none of the models predicts any cyclone to form up in danger-vicinity of our beloved Paradise Isle.
we can start to enjoy the next weekend, it's already wednesday again

cheers

Mike
 
Status
Not open for further replies.