2015 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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just a lil update.
all runs as expected.
TD9 is still a number, but already dead.
TD10 moves well on sat shots, but the pavement ahead of da roadtrip brings the same death.
none will bother any Landmass anywhere.
nothing expected to come up for many days ahead of now.
we are sure all fine for this already started weekend.

have a great one

Mike
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Yeah, Mike....TS Ida is on the road to the Cemetery...and we still need a lot of rain here.

HB
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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that's the facts, HB, Yes.
we had some showers the last days/nights,
but nothing to write home about.
shortwhiled and not heavy,
and anyways very isolated by small areas within the whole Punta Cana area.
under the line, it's Water that is needed, real water that soaks the grounds and brings some greenish colours back to the trees and bushes etc.
one could discuss if Ida really a TS or not, maybe it had a tad bit more windspeed during the night, i did not check on that.
it is a strong TD, will not become more than a weakest edge TS as its shown now,
and anyways not on any way towards any Island/Landmass.

while the mid highway got somewaht moistured due the several small disturbed areas/miniStorms/Systems of the last 10 days or so, the far East, where they all begin, has already again a nice tense SAL layer up and running.
i did not run a search for wide systems moving over the far East of the Central African Continent the whole week,
but within a 3 days distance of the African Westshores there is actually Nothing present worth to mention.

none of the models predicts any Cyclonic activity for many many days in advance.
so i guess it will get quiet again,
which should also dry out again the mid atmosphere between here an mid highway/45"West.
what ever could come up then, would face a harsh environment again all the way,
like til now all stormy/disturbed weather systems faced this season so far.
enjoy the weekend
wish you to get some hrs of rain out of whatsoever clouds,
it will not happen due a storm cloud of a tropical system,
at least not the next 10 days or so.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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hey guys.
not that i would not like to report anything about this "Hurricane" Season,
but there simply is nothing to report,
we are again on a full break with nothing expected to show up anywhere to bother our lil Paradise.

have a great new sunny week everyone

Mike
 

j&t's future

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Mar 6, 2007
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hey guys.
not that i would not like to report anything about this "Hurricane" Season,
but there simply is nothing to report,
we are again on a full break with nothing expected to show up anywhere to bother our lil Paradise.

have a great new sunny week everyone

Mike

In Mike we trust!
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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how's it looking on the northshores, from west to farest east/samana?
Tropical Storm Joaquin is not something i follow, as there is not threatening of the Island,
but i can imagine some areas to get lucky and receive some cloudcover,
maybe even Rain?
clouds will be spotted even here near the SE, pushed all around the Isle due the circulation of the storm.
but the North may get lucky with some water.
who's up there to report?
Olly,
is the whole Team in the Pool without waterproofed Tablets?
lol

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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looks like we get more or less islandwide a little share of Joaquin's rains, nothing bad.
who cares about some wind on the east and south.
hey guys,
how is the Northshore doing?
how are your winds up there and how is the Ocean behaving?
the next several days i can imagine that your beaches will loose quiet some terrain due beach erosion.
as far as a mayor hurricane hit goes, the US-Eastshores should be fine/got lucky,
actual tracking forcasts, since the storm turned around and started to move many hours ago,
it is expected that it will stay several hundred miles away from the us-shorees, no landfall.
still,
the stormsurge from Joaquin reaches many hundred miles and is a devastating one,
forecasts predict heavy beach erosions and mayor floodings from the Carolinas up to the Jersey Shores.
in addition South Carolina is predicted to receive the heaviest/record downpour in history,
so this could become one of the costiest Storms that Never Hit.
as far as the battered Bahamas go, with Joaquin almost stationery right over the Central bahamas, the Eye of the Storm directly affecting somewhere 4-5000 citizens, that outcome/headcount afterwards will sorrily very likely not be a nice result.
damages can be awaited to be heaviest-extreme for the central bahamas.
details will come out soon.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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been a bit breezy here on the East, too. just had an other short shower, been several the last 24hrs, but none was lasting, just short lil bursts, wind avove the average and a bit cloudy skies,
looks like sunburns will not make the HitList this weekend.
Ocean is a bit wild inshore/nearshore, but manageable offshore.
nonthless been not fishing yesterday and today, just in case, but til now it would have been fine, bumpy but fine.
tomorrow the big boats will run their rides,
their observation will decide if the smaller 38ft and less Vessels will go offshore on sunday.
how's the Cibao and the PoP Areas?

Mike
 

AlterEgo

Administrator
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Jan 9, 2009
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DR is very lucky Joachin bypassed it - we're getting hammered in the Mid-Atlantic states. I feel like I'm in the middle of the Wizard of Oz and this house is going to be swept into the air.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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DR is very lucky Joachin bypassed it - we're getting hammered in the Mid-Atlantic states. I feel like I'm in the middle of the Wizard of Oz and this house is going to be swept into the air.

and that's with Joaquin so faaar away, imagine him to be several hundred miles closer.
the DR would not have survived such storm in one healthy piece.
Joaquin over the mid-northshores or climbing the central Mountainranges of the country,
would have been a historical desaster, a full knock down.

Mike
 

TravelHippo

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Mar 24, 2008
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It has been windy and cooler here in Cabrera all day, with constant cloud coverage and the feeling of rain to come.. yet not a single drop of rain has fallen unfortunately.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Alter Ego,
what you guys on the american east shores have now as winds and rain,
is nothing much of Joaquin, yet.
it's a Nor'Easter flooding the Carolinas.
far away passing Joaquin will just add a bit more on top of the surge by high swells sent out that way.
some coverage of already heaviliest floodings out there on the net.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3138

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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nice view on Joaquin
from thursday morning 8AM

12088211_1046326525407624_7206815259970975340_n.jpg


Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Salvador Island/Bahamas
yesterday afternoon in the Eye of Joaquin, after the 1st eyewall pass.
awaiting the 2nd eyewall pass, which brings the more dangerous westerly powers for that location.
since 6PM yesterday no more contact with there.
may they all be save

Mike


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bob saunders

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Jan 1, 2002
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A lot of the damage in post #626 is the indirect result of poor or primitive construction techniques and lack of Hurricane tie-downs on roof rafters, etc. Note that the concrete block walls were left standing, but the roofs gone as there was nothing to hold them in place. Code in the hurricane-prone areas of the U.S. now require the use of hurricane tie-downs for roofing structures. Flood damage, as always, is bad, but due to improper grading of the roadways and drainage systems being clogged or non-existent. The Dominican Republic would be subject to the same kind of damages if struck by a storm the magnitude of Joaquin.

My mother-in-laws tin roof , wooden walls have survived both David and Georges. Granted they were not CAT 4.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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A lot of the damage in post #626 is the indirect result of poor or primitive construction techniques and lack of Hurricane tie-downs on roof rafters, etc. Note that the concrete block walls were left standing, but the roofs gone as there was nothing to hold them in place. Code in the hurricane-prone areas of the U.S. now require the use of hurricane tie-downs for roofing structures. Flood damage, as always, is bad, but due to improper grading of the roadways and drainage systems being clogged or non-existent. The Dominican Republic would be subject to the same kind of damages if struck by a storm the magnitude of Joaquin.

i would guess even the best city drainages will not keep up with anything of a flooding due a moister cat4 cyclone like Joaquin,
dumping what, 1-2ft? of water within some very few hours?
and thats just the central bahamas, very tiny populated islands, where no billions are at hand for top of the line modern world constructions.
look what the lil Nor'Easter is actually doing along the US-Eastshores, without any hurricane influence.
and thats a area which is built top of the line i guess,
but there are limits for everything, you can not build a whole country/Coastline/all Islands by highest and most expensive standards.
there is always a point when motha nature takes over the control panel, where all best built structures and ingenieuring genieous constructions loose the battle against the one controlling Power, Mom Nature.
as for Joaquin entering the DR from the North to the South and then stalling out/standing still to do slowly a turn back out towards the north,
well,
i don't want to imagine such outcome.
it would sure have become a superdeadly historical desaster,
the DR is not the slightest bit prepared to handle the Hit Nor the aftermath of a full running over land stalled Cat 4 Cyclone, by far not, No Island is, btw, nor would i know about any mainland which would be ready for such.
even the highly organized and equipped USA get's desasterous results and deadrolls on storms much smaller and weaker than this Joaquin, now imagine a country like DR??
on such things everybody can only pray to get lucky and get missed by some miles by that deadly eyewall.
in case of the waterloads, well, they are announceed some hours prior to arrival, the only salvation is to run to higher grounds, in case you live in a low located/vulnerable location for heavy rainloads/mudslides and such.

Mike
 
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