2016 Hurricane Season

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the National Hurricane Center still doesn't show a TS Karl,
but the power for that is def there since it started to get organized yesterday.
we will see it's possibilities for powers and real final tracking once it reaches the half way point over the Highway.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
TS Karl is now on the half way point of the highway run/40"W.
it still struggles powers as it carries all it's heavy thunderstorm and waterloads activity on it's NE and E well far from the Center of circulation.
that's good as is slows down the process to increase powers, but that could change of course any time within just a few hours, bringing center of circulation and TS areas closer together.
it is running straight West on the 18thN, my place (Estern Tip of the DR) is located straight W of Karl.
it is a heading towards the northernmost Islands of the Belt.
when bringing Center of Circulation and TS Areas closer together, the "positioning" of Center can change by a 50 miles S(more likely) or N(less likely) easily.
it is ef worth to be watched on it's approach towards the Islands now.
the pavement is Wet, due the several Systems passing thru the last couple weeks our former protection shield of Dry Saharan Air is gone, as shown on the SAL(dry airmass shot) below, which was taken this morning 8AM AST.

Mike

splitEW.jpg
 

william webster

Rest In Peace WW
Jan 16, 2009
30,246
4,332
113
Can you see what will happen next weekend Fisherman?

I arrive Saturday at Samana for a visit....
feeling like one of the Three Little Pigs..

I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your house down........
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun

LOL,
SAL is the Saharan Air Layer, haha.
the Tropical Storm out there is named Karl.
yes, of course Karl will finally get it's nortehrn drift and miss the Islands,
what ya think why i said so since it's first clouds appeared over the waters aroud the Cape Verde Islands?
it tries to get it's act together and form the Thunderstorm activity near/around the Center, tyo become a Hurricane.
doingso mlet it loose a lot of it's size during today.
conditions are not bad on the way, it could become a Hurricane in a couple days or 3.
by then it will be well out NE of our Island,
Karl is not expected to pay a visit.
during it's reforming process it's Center been placed several 10th of a degree southwards of it's prior "position",
but that southward trend should be over.
in the morning it should run around 18.5"N and from there lil by lil climb up/northwards on a W-WNW'ern tracking.
WW,
friends of mine will spend the next weekend also on Samana, nothing bad will happen next weekend there.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
I'll be going to Cabrera, thanks Mike.

I get confused by the WNW and WW.....
my eyes cross..........

lol.
a WW does not exist.
it is simple portions of the 360 degrees circle.
top(12 0'clock marg) is 0.
bottom(6 o'clock) is 180 degrees.
right(3 o'clock) is 90 degrees.
left(9o'clock) is 270 degrees.
0 = North.
right/90 degrees = East
bottom/180 degrees is South
left/270 degrees is West.

as all those weather maps are oriented with North/0 degrees on the Top, you can apply the directions(up, down, left, right) on all of thyem.
a Storm moving W means it mmove's from it's actual position straight to the left seide of your Map.
in Karl's case it's actual W(west) tracking means it is walking straight towards my doorstep/house.
a tracking NW means it wanders on a 315 degrees direction(10:30 on the clock circle).
WNW means to wander on a 292.5 degrees direction(9:45 on the clock circle.
so a NW heading means it wanders the same quickW as it does N.
WNW means it wanders twice as quick W than N etc etc.
even more confused now?
i thought so, lol.
Hey, it's sunday, no Storm coming to us and it is after 5PM.
let's grab a greenie and wait if the next days bring something up to watch.

Mike
 

william webster

Rest In Peace WW
Jan 16, 2009
30,246
4,332
113
Whichever storm a few years back was targeted for Cabo Frances Viejo..
All the US stations kept repeating it.

My friends called me to ask if that was anywhere near me.

Near Me ????
It's my doormat, my view... I can practically spit onto it !!!

As you might recall, it drifted north and missed the target.
It must have seen the helmet I was wearing !!!

hahaha
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Karl climbed 3/10th northwards since late evening,
so there is hope it's southwards trend is over,
we will know by day's end.

Invest 96L looks interesting.
the system is very lare but still shows good organization.
it should be our next Tropical Depression in less than 24hrs, maybe before day's end.
on it's path later this week conditions do not look very favorable for a Storm to form,
so we will watch it just to see what size/amount of water could be left in it in case it make's a run over the Highway.

looks like we will enjoy an other week of sunny skies, including that darn Heat, here on the Eastshores.

have a great one everyone

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
TS13 is out and before day's end Karl should have company by a 2nd Tropical Storm on the highway.
none will come our way or in any dangerous matter close to our Isle.

here's to enjoy an other calm sunfilled week on the eastshores.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Karl will struggle due a hostile environment for more time,
it will struggle with that all the time it wanders closest to the Isle,
so no threat will come from this one.
Lisa looked good but chokes now dry air
and anyways it is running on a straight tracking to the Graveyard/Central Atlantic,
this one will never come close to the Caribbean.

as promised already on monday,
we will have a calm and quiet week without any events to report.

enjoy da Beach

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
we will stay nice for the weekend as far as Storms are concerned, no dangers anywhere for Paradise Isle.

the newest Tropical Wave, located South of the Cape Verde Islands, is too young to guess on development and/or powers, yet.
what ever it will be, Location and Steering Patterns make it a Westward Runner to the Caribbean.
conditions near the Cape Verde's do not favor development, but that will get better within the last 1000 miles towards the Caribbean Islands.
it is steaming forward Turbo-Powered on 20mphrs,
so what ever comes, it will come very quick/soon.

have a great sunfilled and beer-cooled weekend Y'all

Mike
 

Marilyn

Bronze
May 7, 2002
728
22
18
no question about it being a direct hit, the question would be what category will it be when it hits us?

at201697_ensmodel.gif
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,887
2,463
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
nope, Marilyn.
long term tracking hide's high error spaces and the long range outlook tracking models do actually no show it as a hot to our Isle, only one of the Models points to the Island at the moment, and too far ahead of time to get accuracy.
97L is wandering below the 10th"N, hence it did not develop earlier.
it's tracking runs W-WNW, so it will surpass the 10"N and get it's Spin.
conditions for development down there far south are in favor of a Storm to come up,
with warm Sea Surface, low windshear and no bothering Dry Air Masses around, we have no protectioon shield on the SE of the Islands.
it should become the next Storm/TD within the next 48hrs.
it is running quickly/around 20mphr towards the Southernmost Islands of the Belt, towards the Northshores of Southamerica.
only a 1000 miles before the first Hits and moving forward quick, hard to tell how strong it can become before it starts to interfere with Land.
it should enter the Caribbean Sea on the SE Corner. if it stays far enough away from the Northshores there, it will have plenty of Hot Water and favorable surroundings and time to really develop into something, while wandering thru the caribbean Sea.
which direction it will move, once in the caribbean Sea, is impossible to predict, as it depends on how strong such Storm will become once in the Caribbean Sea.
the stronger it comes out, the straighter it will walk towards the southshores of the Greater Antilles Puerto Rico, Hispaniola.
as long as it is "weak" it should keep a more Westward Track wandering thru the caribbean Sea from E-W.

def something to watch the next days permanently

Mike