So it's a wait and see situation, we won't know probably until 3-4 days from now...
- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
2016 Hurricane Season
So it's a wait and see situation, we won't know probably until 3-4 days from now...
we won't know until 1 - max 2 days before a Bumm Bumm.
it mfirst has to develop to be a Storm, then we can start to guess on growing powers and estimate ndirections of tracking.
Mike
it mfirst has to develop to be a Storm, then we can start to guess on growing powers and estimate ndirections of tracking.
Mike
The only problem this storm has with development is its travel speed of 20 knots. Little to no wind shear in the upper atmosphere and warm water Temps mean that this storm could develop into a major storm. As long as it stays below or on 10, and it continues moving fast, it will not develop quickly. All computer models show that it will slowly creep north and as it does, development chances increase. I'm hoping that it stays south over the next 24 hrs which will hopefully delay strong development until it passes the Antilles chain and enters the Caribbean. Then it will start tracking more WNW. I hope...Still really too early to tell.
Nope, they never stay S for too long.
97L is already on the 10thN,
it shows clearly that Spin started.
it keeps climbing and will get before tomorrow Noon a great Spin, from there on all will Improve in favor of a Storm.
it has already no more than 650 miles befor the first hit on the southern Islands, rains should start there independend of development by tomorrow evening, maybe already later afternoon.
it is steaming on very quick 20+mphr forward and shows good organization on that normally unfavorable high forward speed.
slowing down on entry into the souther caribbean Sea over hot waters with present low windshear will make out of na strong TD or weak TS a real Storm in no time.
we will have a TD tomorrow afternoon out there.
climbing just 1 degree higher on the Map will make it a TS a few hrs later, as such it should walk the southern Islands.
it is nice sized and has thunderstorms and waterloads already nice grouped at and around the Center on all sides,
it is a good looking formation with many possibilities.
sure it also has the right to the possibility to come too close to the Northshores of SA and go to helll,
but i doubt such.
once it spent some hrs in the SE'ern caribbean Sea, we will see to where it wanna move and how quick it grows.
Mike
97L is already on the 10thN,
it shows clearly that Spin started.
it keeps climbing and will get before tomorrow Noon a great Spin, from there on all will Improve in favor of a Storm.
it has already no more than 650 miles befor the first hit on the southern Islands, rains should start there independend of development by tomorrow evening, maybe already later afternoon.
it is steaming on very quick 20+mphr forward and shows good organization on that normally unfavorable high forward speed.
slowing down on entry into the souther caribbean Sea over hot waters with present low windshear will make out of na strong TD or weak TS a real Storm in no time.
we will have a TD tomorrow afternoon out there.
climbing just 1 degree higher on the Map will make it a TS a few hrs later, as such it should walk the southern Islands.
it is nice sized and has thunderstorms and waterloads already nice grouped at and around the Center on all sides,
it is a good looking formation with many possibilities.
sure it also has the right to the possibility to come too close to the Northshores of SA and go to helll,
but i doubt such.
once it spent some hrs in the SE'ern caribbean Sea, we will see to where it wanna move and how quick it grows.
Mike
as seen in the autoupdated Loop in post 145,
the Spin is still not on full swing but getting better by the hour.
97L keeps climbing and improving.
just a few hundred miles til meeting Barbados.
the strongest Sector is the Northe Section, the one that will be located towards the Greater Antilles once in the caribbean Sea.
here a graph with the actual wave heights pushed there in the northern sector.
it os from 11AM AST today, i don't think it will update itself.
Mike
the Spin is still not on full swing but getting better by the hour.
97L keeps climbing and improving.
just a few hundred miles til meeting Barbados.
the strongest Sector is the Northe Section, the one that will be located towards the Greater Antilles once in the caribbean Sea.
here a graph with the actual wave heights pushed there in the northern sector.
it os from 11AM AST today, i don't think it will update itself.
Mike
powers are still more concentrated to the northern side, so not declared a Storm, yet.
it should get it done tonight and wander mid morning as a TD or TS Mathew over the southern Leewards.
steering looks still mostly West to W-WNW, that means wandering central thru the caribbean Sea westward.
when and where the bwest trend breaks and it turns NW is completely uncertain at this point.
according to the steering forcasts such turn will not happen befor it had already passed our Soil.
we have to watch out how far the stormy action reaches out northwards after the pass over the Islands,
to be aware of amounts of waters and wind that could be received.
it does not look like a hitter to PR or Hispa?iola.
Jamaica and SE Cuba look much more likely destins.
windpowers are already high enough to be named a Storm, but there is still not the necessary Spin present to become that lil upgrade with a name.
Mike
it should get it done tonight and wander mid morning as a TD or TS Mathew over the southern Leewards.
steering looks still mostly West to W-WNW, that means wandering central thru the caribbean Sea westward.
when and where the bwest trend breaks and it turns NW is completely uncertain at this point.
according to the steering forcasts such turn will not happen befor it had already passed our Soil.
we have to watch out how far the stormy action reaches out northwards after the pass over the Islands,
to be aware of amounts of waters and wind that could be received.
it does not look like a hitter to PR or Hispa?iola.
Jamaica and SE Cuba look much more likely destins.
windpowers are already high enough to be named a Storm, but there is still not the necessary Spin present to become that lil upgrade with a name.
Mike
I for one am pleased the storm still hasn't developed into a named storm as of this morning and has resumed a westerly track. This insures that the Antilles chain will only have to deal with Tropical Storm strength winds which is a good thing for these small island nations. Indicators do show it becoming a named storm today as the hurricane hunters out of St. Croix recorded sustained winds of 37mph which means it only has 2 mph to go before being a named storm.. Being this is a fairly large storm overall, I can't help wondering what it will strengthen to once is passes the Antilles Chan, drifts further north, and enters the warmer waters of the Caribbean. Looking forward to Mike's morning update..
haaa,
those "Models" get more in agrement with my original days old tracking of a westward runner E to W thru the caribbean Sea.
We should get a good load of rain on that "passing by South", tho. as most water is located in the northern quadrant
and that should be the portion running closest/over our Soil.
the Storm Center should stay well South in the Center betwenn Us and the Southamerican Northshores.
97L def has windpowers higher than necessary to be a Tropical Storm, it just did not get a name, yet, due the missing closed circulation.
that circulation looks better this morning and the actually flying Hurricane Hunter Craft will most likely declare Tropical Storm Mathew wandering over the soutghern Leeward Islands, which it is approaching Now.
after the short walk over the small Islands this one could intensify rapidly, specially once the surface circulation is completely running and on the already slower Foward Speed.
this summer we will not have Draught Problems as we had the prior several years.
it is raining at my place since 8AM this morning, from a very small piece of cloud.
air is fresh, the darn heat of the last days is gone, feels gooood.
get ready for good rain all around and some high Surf along the Southshores,
Beach corrotion along the Punta Cana Beaches will also show it's effects.
it always can make a drastical change after wandering over the Islands,
but at this moment there are no indicators that we would be in for a hit.
the Raindance worked out well, tho.
Mike
the Map with the "Water in da Air"
those "Models" get more in agrement with my original days old tracking of a westward runner E to W thru the caribbean Sea.
We should get a good load of rain on that "passing by South", tho. as most water is located in the northern quadrant
and that should be the portion running closest/over our Soil.
the Storm Center should stay well South in the Center betwenn Us and the Southamerican Northshores.
97L def has windpowers higher than necessary to be a Tropical Storm, it just did not get a name, yet, due the missing closed circulation.
that circulation looks better this morning and the actually flying Hurricane Hunter Craft will most likely declare Tropical Storm Mathew wandering over the soutghern Leeward Islands, which it is approaching Now.
after the short walk over the small Islands this one could intensify rapidly, specially once the surface circulation is completely running and on the already slower Foward Speed.
this summer we will not have Draught Problems as we had the prior several years.
it is raining at my place since 8AM this morning, from a very small piece of cloud.
air is fresh, the darn heat of the last days is gone, feels gooood.
get ready for good rain all around and some high Surf along the Southshores,
Beach corrotion along the Punta Cana Beaches will also show it's effects.
it always can make a drastical change after wandering over the Islands,
but at this moment there are no indicators that we would be in for a hit.
the Raindance worked out well, tho.
Mike
the Map with the "Water in da Air"
goood morning buddy.
we typed the same time.
it always takes a while with the typing window open before i finally "sent" it, as the phone rings too often this time of the morning.
97L has already more windpower than necessary to be named a Tropical Storm,
but it still did not have the closed circulation to be named a Storm/Tropical Depression last night.
it pretty sure will be named at the moment the Hunters bring in their Data, which will be any moment now.
it will wander a bit more north on it's western track, that brings a full spin, slows forward speed down fyurther, it is already well organized, it is big.
so yes, this could become a strong Storm once wandering the middle of the Caribbean Sea away from any bothering Landmasses.
well north of the southamerican northshores and wellsouth of PR and Hispa?iola.
Mike
According to the NHC they found winds up to 45 MPH, so most likely by 11am Mathews will be born:
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave located near Barbados is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph.
Jeez, what a turn is this? Damn, that will affect me here in Santo Domingo
The strongest winds are reported NE of center with sustained wind speeds of 60mph reported in the latest advisory from NHC and tropical storm force winds spreading out 205 miles.....the distance from Port Au Prince to Santo Domingo.
The question is thus, if it turns north as expected and to the eastern side of the current NHC cone, could that mean that the western parts of DR gets some serious wind?
One to watch.......
As the storm passed the Antilles islands today, winds with gusts to 35 Knotts were observed in St. Maarten which is at the very north end of the chain with heavy (much needed) rains reported throughout all of the lesser Antilles chain. This is a big storm and has the potential to grow into a monster of a storm if it's westerly motion slows down.
Matthew is a perfect Storm Base.
it got more compact, concentrates the powers closer to the Center now, with the wettest and windiest powers on the northside.
it's positioning is perfect for the storm to develop, farest from south american And the greater antilles the same time,
so the high mountains will not interfere before it is already a grown up boy.
that one most likely will run havock somewhere not too far ton our West.
first it will continue the actual western track thru the central caribbean sea, which provides the best possible conditions for growing up,
this boy should pass the Teen age quick and be a Man soon.
the front in the western caribbean will turn it up North, luckily right after it passed to the west of our Territory.
late afternoon our winds changed here on the East, since then we will stay under the influence of Matthew's drifts.
Hey, that darn unbearable Heat is GONE now! Yeehaaa.
hard to tell how much rain we get, as it is a fast growing Storm usually getting more compact for a while during that process.
it sure will get wet along the south and also sure the Capital will be flooded again, as usual when it rains for more than an hour straight on.
some well known 5th floor appartments may wanna secure their wide glass veranda doors.
it will be a Hurricane tomorrow, very likely before Noon, and will keep growing quickly ...
TS Storm Winds reach out far Northwards from the Center of the Action,
but i doubt that we will get any on DR Land, not on the actually predicted western tracking.
what we have good chances to get is a good load of rain coming down under strong winds along the southern coastal areas.
if Jamaica get's spared from the highest powers, then it will run Havok after the weekend, just when caribmike took away the Glassprotectors from the upper floor appartment veranda doors.
this one can survive a Landfall over small Landportions like SE Cuba as a strong Cat2,
and those are the ones who survive such very angry against the soils to reach afterwards.
north of Eastern Cuba the conditions and hot waters are ready to fuel what ever engine comes that way.
as usual we are the spared out Angels in Paradise,
we have our first Row Seats, CaribMike even high up in the VIP-Lounge, watching a Hurricane wandering by so close to watch and still far enough to not fock up more than the usual floodings.
tomorrow late afternoon/early evening it should be a Hurricane Matthew on it's closest point to my place, straight South of Punta Cana.
Mike
it got more compact, concentrates the powers closer to the Center now, with the wettest and windiest powers on the northside.
it's positioning is perfect for the storm to develop, farest from south american And the greater antilles the same time,
so the high mountains will not interfere before it is already a grown up boy.
that one most likely will run havock somewhere not too far ton our West.
first it will continue the actual western track thru the central caribbean sea, which provides the best possible conditions for growing up,
this boy should pass the Teen age quick and be a Man soon.
the front in the western caribbean will turn it up North, luckily right after it passed to the west of our Territory.
late afternoon our winds changed here on the East, since then we will stay under the influence of Matthew's drifts.
Hey, that darn unbearable Heat is GONE now! Yeehaaa.
hard to tell how much rain we get, as it is a fast growing Storm usually getting more compact for a while during that process.
it sure will get wet along the south and also sure the Capital will be flooded again, as usual when it rains for more than an hour straight on.
some well known 5th floor appartments may wanna secure their wide glass veranda doors.
it will be a Hurricane tomorrow, very likely before Noon, and will keep growing quickly ...
TS Storm Winds reach out far Northwards from the Center of the Action,
but i doubt that we will get any on DR Land, not on the actually predicted western tracking.
what we have good chances to get is a good load of rain coming down under strong winds along the southern coastal areas.
if Jamaica get's spared from the highest powers, then it will run Havok after the weekend, just when caribmike took away the Glassprotectors from the upper floor appartment veranda doors.
this one can survive a Landfall over small Landportions like SE Cuba as a strong Cat2,
and those are the ones who survive such very angry against the soils to reach afterwards.
north of Eastern Cuba the conditions and hot waters are ready to fuel what ever engine comes that way.
as usual we are the spared out Angels in Paradise,
we have our first Row Seats, CaribMike even high up in the VIP-Lounge, watching a Hurricane wandering by so close to watch and still far enough to not fock up more than the usual floodings.
tomorrow late afternoon/early evening it should be a Hurricane Matthew on it's closest point to my place, straight South of Punta Cana.
Mike
no real news today on TS Matthew.
it droped central pressure a lot last night and is a upper scale TS as awaited.
it now walks along the south of PR, starting tonight and during tomorrow it will walk along our Southshores, far out south.
the next 2 days will be it's time frame of biggest and quickest intensification, as conditions are the best it will get anywhere.
we have to watch it closely of course, as the predicted north-turn is something hard to put on a exact position and further steering ahead of time.
finally strength and exact position of the predicted Low over the Mid Atlantic will be the decider about Where and When and to Which Direction Matthew will turn North.
important for Us is simply Not to get something like a "wrong way Matty".
Mike
it droped central pressure a lot last night and is a upper scale TS as awaited.
it now walks along the south of PR, starting tonight and during tomorrow it will walk along our Southshores, far out south.
the next 2 days will be it's time frame of biggest and quickest intensification, as conditions are the best it will get anywhere.
we have to watch it closely of course, as the predicted north-turn is something hard to put on a exact position and further steering ahead of time.
finally strength and exact position of the predicted Low over the Mid Atlantic will be the decider about Where and When and to Which Direction Matthew will turn North.
important for Us is simply Not to get something like a "wrong way Matty".
Mike