2016 Hurricane Season

[jstarebel]

the closer one, around 60 hrs away from the Leeward Islands,
is a still not active system, means it is a Tropical Wave but no low pressure area nearby to interact with.
it should arrive at the Caribbean around the northern Islands Belt, very low probabilities for any kinda threat for our home soil.
no conditions to favor development on the way over here so far, so IF it would start to do something, it would start that late, once it is already close to the Islands.
doesn't look like something to watch at this moment.
the further one SE of the Cabo Verde Islands is a active Tropical Wave sharing the ride with a surface Low Pressure System.
it has good chances to develop into a minor storm system the next days but no freakin' way it will make it over here.
it will be long gone from the Maps before it could come close to Paradise Isle.
the Sun is hot, the Sand sandy, the Water at the doorstep salty and the greenies ice cold.
at the moment there is zero out there that could stand a chance to change the slightest bit of that.
Life is good.
let's keep it rolling.

Mike

I've been in St. Martin for the last week securing and mounting a new prop and was looking to leave Saturday Morning. I haven't been following the weather because Ive been a little busy. A friend from St. Thomas just told me about this disturbance, but didn't elaborate much about it. I'm glad you did, and I'm glad you've opened the thread back up Mike.

 

[ju10prd]

Invest 97L seems like it could become a threat in a few days from what I am now reading, when it progresses through the Caribbean Sea and runs just to the south of the Greater Antilles. Intensity models vary but tracks seem consistent. Someone was suggesting we may have a named storm by tomorrow am. Hope not.....want to fly back home.

Mike would appreciate your thoughts.

I'm in the Northern Leewards with a planned return to SDQ tomorrow, but the rains and winds have begun today and a night of weather is in prospect to dampen the Culturama holiday festival. The clouds have descended down from Mt Nevis.

I've stocked up with cold Caribs for the evening in any case.

 

[jstarebel]

Mike would know best, but 97 looks to just be rain and some 30 knot winds as it travels through the Leeward islands into the Caribbean because of a high in its path west producing dry air that doesn't give it the fuel it needs to strengthen. It is said that when entering the Caribbean waters, it will run into more favorable conditions and become a named storm. It may stall once it hits the warmer Caribbean waters and the high pressure lessens but too early to tell right now what effect this storm will have on the DR.

 

[dv8]

there is a chance of a hurricane with recent rainy and windy weather:
http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2016/08/...ye-organismos-tomar-medidas-por-onda-tropical

yellow alert in san crist?bal, peravia, azua, barahona and pedernales. beaches closed from altagracia province to pedernales.

 

[MikeFisher]

the center of the very likely soon to become named Storm is located somewhere south of Haiti.
it moves on quick 20mphrs westward, so the rough time for the southshores is this afternoon and this evening as they are under the influence of the NE'ern bands of the system.
i can imagine that some strong rainfalls came down there today.
by tomorrow it should be far enough out West so the influence goes down and all calms back down again.

Mike

 

[caribmike]

Ha, now you show up, AFTER the water came in into the 5th floor of my penthouse and flew down the stairs into the 4th floor. Had you told me before I, I, I would still have everything f###ing wet... :devious:

Just kidding. all good, errr wet, but nothing damaged b/c we had it coming. But damn, was it pouring down here, luckily it was over after 10 minutes, very fast moving forward...

 

[MikeFisher]

Ha, now you show up, AFTER the water came in into the 5th floor of my penthouse and flew down the stairs into the 4th floor. Had you told me before I, I, I would still have everything f###ing wet... :devious:

Just kidding. all good, errr wet, but nothing damaged b/c we had it coming. But damn, was it pouring down here, luckily it was over after 10 minutes, very fast moving forward...

hahaha
so much for poor buildings.
when a short downpour of less than an hour brings water into the place, then a Move to a "better place" should be considered, lol.
anyways, not checking about some rain.
the important point is that we do not have a Storm coming towards our Isle blowing away the upper 3 floors of the leaking 5 floor building.
while it rained a lot last night with thunder seeming to try to take away the roof of our place,
today no rain so far all day long where i was around, at least not when i was around.
dry roads this morning from Cabeza de Toro to Cap Cana to San Juan and then Veron and back to Cabeza de Toro.
the Ocean had some nice 15ft WaterWalls built around the Passage early morning, wind been nasty all night long.
but under the line nothing happened here on the East.
we had a cloudy father's day, followed by a rainy night and topday a cloudy monday with comfy fresh air.
the Ocean has tomorrow all day and night to calm down here on the East,
Wednesday we will be back offshore for the salty fun.
the SW of the Island will of course be a bit behind that shedule, the system brings up the Sea in the SW of DR well rougher than it did here on the eastshores.
but it's all fine.

Mike

 

[mountainannie]

Reports are that "Earl" who is now a Cat 1 hurricane and headed for Belize and Honduras, left 6 dead in the DR.. ??????

 

[Irie]

Reports are that "Earl" who is now a Cat 1 hurricane and headed for Belize and Honduras, left 6 dead in the DR.. ??????

News reports I've read are making the correlation of the formation of Earl as it passed by, with the bus that came in contact with some high voltage lines (maybe downed by the weather) in or around the Nagua area. Reportedly six died in the onset, but the rest escaped the resulting fire. Here is video here somewhere

 

[caribmike]

Morning Mike,

There is coming something... Can you predict where this will be on Saturday and if I have to rent yolas for my wedding ?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

[jstarebel]

It is a low that came off of Africa yesterday. All tracking models show it turning North into the Atlantic before it even gets close to the Leeward Islands.

 

[caribmike]

It is a low that came off of Africa yesterday. All tracking models show it turning North into the Atlantic before it even gets close to the Leeward Islands.

Where can I see these tracking models? Do you use a page besides noaa?

 

[jstarebel]

Here ya go. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Invest-98L?map=model

 

[caribmike]

There goes my last excuse, lol...

 

[MikeFisher]

Morning Mike,

There is coming something... Can you predict where this will be on Saturday and if I have to rent yolas for my wedding ?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Lucky Duck.
they trapped you to a wedding but a nice storm will give you the perfect excuse to cancel everything for safety of your future ex-MIL, hahaha.
i don't think we have to worry about this one.
it is highly likjely to become the next Storm on the Maps,
but positioning and steering conditions should make it a runner for the graveyard,
up into nowhere to the central mid-atlantic.
looks quiet big/wide at this moment, but getting organized can cut down on size a lot.
i don't think it will effect our area at any time.
BUT,
you can copy the Map and send it by 'supp to all family members,
i guess it is a legal reason to safe on wedding and divorce costs, lol.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

TD6 is forming up and gets it's swing.
and as aaited from the beginning it is clearly steering to NW'ern directions,
out on open Sea, far away from any Land.
no more excuses caribmike, You are def Nuked, buddy.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the piece S of the Cape Verdes also looks good humid.
it is this time of the year again,
when small systems line up and get the highway Wet
but still all is boring,
nothing in the make.
only wetting the path to give "something" a chance to make it those famous couple thousand miles West to Glory.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

now the Hurricane Center also show's the probability of a developing disturbance S of the Cape Verdes which i mentioned before.
what ever it will become or not, it is a area of disturbed weather conditions who's positioning and present steering patterns move it towards the Islands,
IF there will develop something and IF such something could survive the long journey over the highway to it's Tropical End.
til now it is absolutely nothing, just a system that wet'ns the pavement.
and of course there is still the days ago predicted next large Tropical Wave,
which will leave the african westcoast to hit Atlantic Waters on saturday, the next wet'ing of pavement system.
at this moment there is nothing out there we would need to look out for.
it's thursday afternoon, i can already smell it, i already can smell it, da Weeeeekend.

Mike

 

[jstarebel]

now the Hurricane Center also show's the probability of a developing disturbance S of the Cape Verdes which i mentioned before.
what ever it will become or not, it is a area of disturbed weather conditions who's positioning and present steering patterns move it towards the Islands,
IF there will develop something and IF such something could survive the long journey over the highway to it's Tropical End.
til now it is absolutely nothing, just a system that wet'ns the pavement.
and of course there is still the days ago predicted next large Tropical Wave,
which will leave the african westcoast to hit Atlantic Waters on saturday, the next wet'ing of pavement system.
at this moment there is nothing out there we would need to look out for.
it's thursday afternoon, i can already smell it, i already can smell it, da Weeeeekend.

Mike

Hey Mike.. You should have another look!! https://m.facebook.com/NorthsideWea...47016764898/811136819022578/?type=3&source=54


https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/invest-99L?map=model

 

[MikeFisher]

Hey Mike.. You should have another look!! https://m.facebook.com/NorthsideWea...47016764898/811136819022578/?type=3&source=54


https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/invest-99L?map=model

why?
the FB link shows a bunch of stu's getting scared about clouds 3-4000 miles away from their us-based home?, lol.
the wunderground link shows what i wrote about today, nothing new.
the waves will keep popping off the african coast, as they always do this time of the year.
some of them will become storms, some the usual bigger storms.
and also as usual, til they are grown up bad boys/gals, we will not know what direction/final destin they may aim to.
Fiona could grow bigger and move all the time far away from any land.
and she could(what i expect) not strengthen much and keep her actual Track NW'wards, dead long before near any Island, and anyways staying too far out to have any influence.
the wave at the Cape Verde's they show as told as a system that wanders westward towards the Tropical Pastures of ours.
what ever it will be, it's too early to guess.
it could be anything from a non existing cloudy windfree thingy up to a Mayor Hurricane, lol.
and the wave expected to hit Atlantic Waters on saturday, well, we at least hhave to wait til it hit water and is developing something the first couple days over water, or not, whatsoever.

til now, nothing bad out there.
but again, that time of the year just started, we have a couple months ahead of us now to watch out for all those cloudies.

Mike