TS Kirk is over the Antilles now and entering the hard core area for high windshear.
tomorrow night it should be south of Puerto Rico down as a Tropical Depression,
saturday morning South of the Mona Channel on it's closest approach to PC.
it carries actually quiet some waterloads on it's northern quadrants and very likely PR will get a good share still of it,
but i doubt there will be much powers on it's north left when wandering along our South Shores to dump down anything significant.
the point where Kirk get's knocked down to just a TD is the point where the actual WNW Steering will turn into a more Westward Tracking Along and Not Onto Our South Shores.
I am pretty sure that this is the last Storm out of our East for the Caribbean this Season
and it will be a No Show Event, too, exactly as we like it.
the Caribbean Sea ill not be nice for Saona Island Tours tomorrow through Monday,
I changed my own ones to run already yesterday and then again Tuesday ahead to stay on the Fun Guarantee side of things.
Offshore Fishing off Punta Cana will still be completely fine tomorrow, Saturday small Boats should sure stay in Harbour but the 42ft+ Pro Vessels will be very fine fishing with guests used to the Open Sea.
Sunday should be too rough for offshore action off PC and those charters already been changed.
later saturday we should get clouds moving through on the East, til late sunday, as Kirk move's fast forward.
sure some isolated by areas showers can/will happen during monday on the East, but nothing that would not happen every once in a while during Non-Kirk Times.
for the South Shores of the Isle above described events happen the same but a few hours later, as Kirk move's Westwards.
the powers left on Kirk when on our side of the channel would not be real danger in case such would come ashore as a direct hit, so there is nothing to worry about.
the European Models did on their tracking and the forecasts of Powers(important for tracking changes) Events a fantastic job the last years, there is today's really a high confidence on their predictions of events such as movements of frontals and specially the Atlantic High's as this year again during Isaac and last year already Maria and Irma.
the americans work since last year on high pressure on updates/modifications of their announced New GFS Models, as the last couple years they been almost useless compared to european accurracy,
so for next Season we will very likely get even more accurate tracking almost a week ahead of time and well more accurate outlooks on Power Developments.
i guess in 10, max 15 years from now, we will get a 100 miles exact Tracking/Touch Down Point for a Storm at the Moment it formed to Gale Force, even if that Storm is at that moment around the Cape Verde Islands, a week from the Caribbean or a week and half from the US Mainland.
the real beasts and full of surprises and unpredictable on anything will stay the little buggers of TS Force downwards, popping up quick, moving in and out quick, mostly coming up in the western caribbean sea and N/NW of the Greater Antilles. I guess they will stay the big unknown valuable/danger for ever.
