2018 Hurricane Season

Marilyn

Bronze
May 7, 2002
728
22
0
I read somewhere that Isaac is back to tropical storm, should be upgraded at either 5pm or 11pm
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
i did not check anything on Isaac today other than keeping an eye on it's tracking, to not get wet on my way to my Marina morning coffee by a surprise Track Change of Isaac, lol.
Isaac is past for us.
if it get's a Tropical Storm again or even a Hurricane , it would not have any effects on us.
If teh System survive's to reach teh Gulf of Mexico, the conditions there would be almost a guarantee to get Isaac back on Hurricane Force.
the Gulf and the East Coast of the USA are this Season Storm Fueling Machines.
but nothing to worry about for us Angels here on Paradise Isle
 

caribmike

Gold
Jul 9, 2009
6,736
156
63


It is back to TS yes. Shortly after I wrote it is windy and clowdy in Los Restauradores it cleared up. Still windy but besides that nothing else from Isaac yet.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Interesting Tracking and toughness to stay a TD for so long and so far over Land and coming back to a TS after a week of havok as a TD.
View attachment 3010

so far nothing on the "radar" of the long range outlooks of the european models, which prooved the last years high reliability on their timing for upcoming events and which prooved this 2018 season a 100% reliability on timing and location a almost scary exact long range forecast of Tracking influencing events.

looking on Temps and awaited mid and high level winds ot the Atmosphere out on our Eastern Highway,
with nothing on the radar for the next 5 days to form out there, I am almost convinced to call it a day and end the short 2018 Season as far as the Eastern Caribbean/Hispañola is concerned.
NW'ern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the mid/North Atlantic off the US-East Shores have still a long way to go this year, their 2018 Season could easily last til deep into November, but i did not take the time to read enough articles about those regions for their further outlook after September is gone.
we had one "interesting" week and it look's like "That's It, haha", as Janis Joplin would have said.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the map cleared up and i don't see chances to get anything up again out off our East.
Invest 1, a bit less than 1000 miles East of the Islands,
is a WNW runner and should brush the NE'ern Islands,
but conditions out there will not allow a Storm to form, so it will just be a blobb of water wandering through.
I am pretty sure that we can call this season off when reaching this coming Season for our Island.

Life is good, Island life is better
 

jstarebel

Silver
Oct 4, 2013
3,267
254
83
the map cleared up and i don't see chances to get anything up again out off our East.
Invest 1, a bit less than 1000 miles East of the Islands,
is a WNW runner and should brush the NE'ern Islands,
but conditions out there will not allow a Storm to form, so it will just be a blobb of water wandering through.
I am pretty sure that we can call this season off when reaching this coming Season for our Island.

Life is good, Island life is better
Isn't it great Mike? BTW, Thanks for your posts and updates.. As usual, you're always spot on, and I like that. Boat's on the hard in SXM. Complete new rig, sheets, standing and running rigging. even had new chain plates made.. The Forrest Gump syndrome ya know.. "Went this far, may as well go a little further".. Oh.. Nothing is up of course until November after season is over. Then sailing to Luperon.. Wanna come?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
sounds great, so for smooth sailing to you.
I will not visit the north this year, we are just getting ready to have the new house finished and November will be for me sure still be furniching and garden preparing etc times, so no travels out of the East for me for a while.
but there may come the time when we hit into each other
 
sounds great, so for smooth sailing to you.
I will not visit the north this year, we are just getting ready to have the new house finished and November will be for me sure still be furniching and garden preparing etc times, so no travels out of the East for me for a while.
but there may come the time when we hit into each other
congrats on the new house Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
The Final Count Down 2018.
after this weekend we could see again a couple active Systems or named Storms on the Maps.
as far as our Tropical Highway is concerned early next week is the final stage of our Hurricane Season.
what is not on a Map til next Wednesday will not become a significant part of 2018.
the highest chances for development has the Disturbance over the Central Atlantic.
there a Sub Tropical Storm should be in the make.
there are actually no strong steering currents around, so it may hang out almost stationary or running in circles until a current give's it some forward speed. the Heading then could be any direction from there. the most likely one would be towards the Azores, but it really could be any.

the Disturbance East of Georgia does not stand much chances to become a real Storm, but has to be monitored for water collecting behaviors, as that positioning and steering patterns should bring it towards the Carolinas, and what those guys sure do not need now is more RAIN. conditions ar not very good in the surroundings of this Disturbance, so a TS to form upis not very likely, but a wet Disturbance moving ashore is very likely there.

we still have the stormy area on our near East, this morning around just 500 miles East of the Windward Islands.
it's Heading should bring it over the Northernmost Islands, Development very unlikely and Dry Air and Windshear should hinder such as long as it would be within vicinity of our Soil.

the only one to become "may be" of interest for us Islanders is the one out on the farest East of the Highway.
it is a active area, means a Tropical Wave with a good amount of moisture and in interaction with a Surface Low Pressure System. before mid week a TD could come out of this one, as the far eastern conditions aren't perfect but allow slow development. after mid next week, while it wanders along the Southern Lanes westward, the conditions on the far East should break down and not allow any other system to develop behind this one. by that time it will be mid Highway close to the 10thN. forecasts for Mid and Western Highway conditions for a week ahead from now can not be taken very reliable, as the Highway conditions are on the Change now.
I guess we will have our hostile conditions up and running by then in the upper Atmosphere, which should knowck down anything approaching the Islands from the East, IF something manages to Form Up out there.

so far so good, no inmediate danger out there for us
 

caribmike

Gold
Jul 9, 2009
6,736
156
63


I don't like "2" now it says heading westnorthwestward to northwestward. Before it was only "westward". Or?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
naaa,
it was from the beginning expected to go NW wards, brushing over the NE'ern Islands.
it will not become more than a TD, and even reaching that status i would be surprised as the final landing conditions are bad out there. it can only gain some powers before arriving at the Islands, but upon arrival i don't think it is more than some windy rainclouds.
but just in case, keep the beers cold and stocked
 
Feb 7, 2007
7,536
325
83
We've got Eleven and especially Kirk heading our way. Kirk is already a storm and it hasn't even left the vicinity of Africa... Hopefully Scotty will beam Kirk out before he gets around this island
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
TD11 should not bother anybody, I din't give it a chance to survive.

Kirk could become a Biatch if it manages to stay organized below the 5thN.
it's advantage is that it will stay away from dry air down there south.
on my way to dinner'n0beers with best buddies,
there is enough time to look on Kirk tomorrow or next week specially, when the conditions on it's path get more accurate.
This weekend will be a worry free weekend for everyone.
have FUN!
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
it is still weekend(a nice loooong one) and all resolved itself,
exactly as i promised, lol.
for us Islanders there is nothing out there to fear and for this 2018 Season there will not be coming anything else to bother our sweet relaxed Paradise Island Lifestyle and Mode.
the former Tropical Depression closing in to the Caribbean now quickly, on well over 20mphr forward speed,
got taken apart, zero surface circulation left.
it could become a relief for areas which need water, because it will wander as a cloudy/rainy undangerous system into the Caribbean Sea, as it is no high upreaching Storm but just a wet wave, so it get's steered by the Tradewinds straight Westward.
it should bring, starting mid week/thursday, nice rainfalls to Puerto Rico and then on also to our Island,
but as usual with predicting exact locations/amounts etc for locally isolated areas in case of rain, there is always the danger to finally miss out on it and stay dry.
if it comes close enough it could bring 2-3 consecutive days of good showers on and off, but that is a "COULD" only.

Kirk got taken apart completely and will not recover.

both those systems could have been strong storms on dangerous levels for the Caribbean,
but this 2018 Season we simply do not allow such to reach our soil, we had enough winds last September, so we wanna stay dry and calm for a few years now.

while of course more waves will emerge from the african continent and do their journey over the Tropical Atlantic to bring our essential waters, as usual all the time, there will be none to get a chance to become a Storm or anything of a Threat for Us.

this Season can be taken as Over and Out, short, harmless, I vote for taking that as Future Standard Seasons, lol.

and anyways:
View attachment 3017
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,064
1,229
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
CORRECTION:
I mixed the completely gone TD approaching with it's remnants the Caribbean now, with ex-Kirk.

the one maybe bringing some rain is ex-Kirk, for mid week/thursday.
the ex-TD entering the Caribbean prior to Kirk could rain down some, but looks more like not moving anywhere real, totally out of anything.