2018 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

Kirk managed to get some circulation running and peak winds run a good 40mphrs, so it is a TS.
it is not a well constructed/organized Storm, struggling at all ends.
tomorrow night, entering the Caribbean Sea, it will get taken down by Hostile Windshear quickly.
by Saturday Noon(on actual forward speed)it will be south of the Mona Passage going with the Tradewinds again,
means a straight Westward Track on the 16thN, safely south of our Shores as a Tropical Depression only.
the forecasts show the high windshear to stay present during that time frame, which makes it very likely that Kirk will disipate quickly like Isaac did.
chances for real Rain for the Island are very Slim, Kirk will just be some spread out/send out slim cloud cells, some may reach our soil for short showers in isolated areas, but thats it.

nothing bad out there for us Islanders, the Season is at it's ending point.
once Kirk is off the Maps the Season for the Tropical Atlantic/East of Us should be done.

View attachment 3020
View attachment 3021

 

[MikeFisher]

Kirk is actually on it's strongest power gaining cycle, running top winds of 50mphr.
and he is steaming forward, accelerating.
it should be S of the Mona Passage already Saturday morning.
No changes of conditions awaited over the Eastern Caribbean Sea,
so it will go down quickly after passing the Antilles.

 

[MikeFisher]

TS Kirk is over the Antilles now and entering the hard core area for high windshear.
tomorrow night it should be south of Puerto Rico down as a Tropical Depression,
saturday morning South of the Mona Channel on it's closest approach to PC.
it carries actually quiet some waterloads on it's northern quadrants and very likely PR will get a good share still of it,
but i doubt there will be much powers on it's north left when wandering along our South Shores to dump down anything significant.

the point where Kirk get's knocked down to just a TD is the point where the actual WNW Steering will turn into a more Westward Tracking Along and Not Onto Our South Shores.

I am pretty sure that this is the last Storm out of our East for the Caribbean this Season
and it will be a No Show Event, too, exactly as we like it.
the Caribbean Sea ill not be nice for Saona Island Tours tomorrow through Monday,
I changed my own ones to run already yesterday and then again Tuesday ahead to stay on the Fun Guarantee side of things.
Offshore Fishing off Punta Cana will still be completely fine tomorrow, Saturday small Boats should sure stay in Harbour but the 42ft+ Pro Vessels will be very fine fishing with guests used to the Open Sea.
Sunday should be too rough for offshore action off PC and those charters already been changed.
later saturday we should get clouds moving through on the East, til late sunday, as Kirk move's fast forward.
sure some isolated by areas showers can/will happen during monday on the East, but nothing that would not happen every once in a while during Non-Kirk Times.
for the South Shores of the Isle above described events happen the same but a few hours later, as Kirk move's Westwards.

the powers left on Kirk when on our side of the channel would not be real danger in case such would come ashore as a direct hit, so there is nothing to worry about.

the European Models did on their tracking and the forecasts of Powers(important for tracking changes) Events a fantastic job the last years, there is today's really a high confidence on their predictions of events such as movements of frontals and specially the Atlantic High's as this year again during Isaac and last year already Maria and Irma.

the americans work since last year on high pressure on updates/modifications of their announced New GFS Models, as the last couple years they been almost useless compared to european accurracy,
so for next Season we will very likely get even more accurate tracking almost a week ahead of time and well more accurate outlooks on Power Developments.

i guess in 10, max 15 years from now, we will get a 100 miles exact Tracking/Touch Down Point for a Storm at the Moment it formed to Gale Force, even if that Storm is at that moment around the Cape Verde Islands, a week from the Caribbean or a week and half from the US Mainland.
the real beasts and full of surprises and unpredictable on anything will stay the little buggers of TS Force downwards, popping up quick, moving in and out quick, mostly coming up in the western caribbean sea and N/NW of the Greater Antilles. I guess they will stay the big unknown valuable/danger for ever.

 

[MikeFisher]

Kirk's walk over the Antilles last night and this morning gave it, as awaited, under our hostile Eastern Caribbean Conditions a final blow.
the 8AM update still show's a TS with 50mphrs windforce, but now by 9:30AM I doubt that it is a TS.
and it will go down quickly.
the touch with Land pushed the system further South.
together with my expectation that the remnants of Kirk will disipate quickly, I doubt that we will get any real rain out of it.
the worst case scenario for the East/The Cape:
choppy but safe Offshore conditions tomorrow/Saturday
and then the typical afterwards pressure on the Mona Channel with rough Offshore Sea 7-9ft for Sunday,
back down on safe conditions again by Monday.

 

[MikeFisher]

Hey guys,
time to bump up our boring 2018 Hurricane Topic,
just to scare some when they see a notification about it on their news feed/email notifications, lol.

we really have something out there, and very very close to the Islands.
the disturbed weather area less than 200 miles east of the Leewards has best chaces to become the next Tropical Depression by mid week/early weekend of this week.
steering patterns will keep it away from becoming a danger for our Island, but it will wander very likely very closer by the NE and then along our North Shores.
I don't see any danger coming, but it is close enough to keep half an eye on it the next few days.
other than that, it may mess up my actually perfect and well calm sea conditions, even brought my girls out fishing yesterday morning, but this system passing close to the NE and N will very likely bring some unliked surf down here to teh Mona Passage.
and I thought i will not be allowed to write here til next summer, lol
cheers

 

[MikeFisher]

looks like false alarm.
this disturbance will not make it into any storm category, the high wind shear surrounding our Isle will not allow such.
the worst case scenario will be some waves and winds and clouds for the E, NE, N.
and even that i would await to be of the smooth variation.
we keep looking of course, just in case, as it is very close and **** always could happen,
but i don't think we get anything to write home about.