good morning from again super calm and pure sunny skies at the Cape.
View attachment 3004
Hurricane Florence, still shown as a Cat2 on110mphr windforce, rose central pressure during last night, up to 956mb now.
it is a smal-mid sized Hurricane in troubles under windshear and finally with dry air in the transmission.
considering its size and low max powers, Florence runs a monster of a big Windfield.
TS Forces are already over the Carolina Shores.
the eye of the storm is expected to make landfall as a Cat1 on South-Central NC-Shores.
by that time the wide windfield will send TS Force Winds up to almost the Virginia border and down to the Georgia border.
Florence could manage to stay a Hurricane Force for 15-20 hrs over Land while wandering WSW into South Carolina.
Hurricane Force Winds should be expected to blow from the Central NC Coast til down to the Central SC Coast and on the track landinward to a 100 miles.
since last evening none of the many models expects Florence to Stall Out prior to landfall,
while the forward speed already went down from formerly 17mphr to now 12mphr, tendency slowing down more.
compared to the expected worst case scenarios, with a Mayor Hurricane stalling right off the shores, the Carolinas got very lucky, as there is no way that Florence could gain powers back, now running shallow waters and already interacting with Land.
BUT, that "Lucky" does not mean Florence would be a no show for the Carolinas, this Storm will bring a heck of waterloads all around and very far Inland.
I am still at the Marina, no time to look on waterload charts, I bet you guys living in the effected areas can look them uo easily via google or your local emergency center's updates.
by far not the awaited big blow, Florence will be one of the most destructive forces that ever hit that region.
Tropical Isaac been nicely in trouble with harsh windshear last evening and during most of the night.
considering such long time frame already under 20-30 Knots of windshear and not been taken down and out completely, show's how high of a heat content/fueling powers the Ocean East of the Caribbean Islands contains.
the same goes for Florence and the Heat Content off the US Coast, during other Seasons with that windshear from last night, it would have been gone down to some rainclouds over night.
on average Temp/Heat Content Years Isaac would have been down to a TD last evening and would not be mentioned anymore today, other than some rainclouds moving into the Caribbean Sea.
located now, touching Land over the Central Antilles, on 15.2N, it looks like it could manage to stay a TS til sunday morning or sunday Noon even. those Storms this Season are very hard headed, tough to knock down.
Steaming straight Westward on over 20mphrs, Isaac should be straight south of the Mona Channel by tomorrow Noon,
maybe mid afternoon awaiting a little slow down due the Touch Down on the Antilles.
Isaac will not reach 16N, should not even come closer than 15.5N.
Isaac's whole southern quadrants are destroyed by windshear, all remaining powers are carried in the northern Quadrants towards Puerto Rico and Hispañola.
as i await it to continue struggling with the windshear, plus bothering interaction with the small Islands on the East,
i think even our south shores should stay safe from TS Force Winds.
but we will get up to 20 knots winds blowing around and some northern rainbands will dump some water over parts of PR and DR. where exactly and how much is hard to estimate, as the Storm is changing/bothered.
2-4 inches of water during the bypass should be a realistic amount for the South and in some Central Regions.
if small strong spread out cells rain down in PR or DR over Land in a mountainous region, such isolated areas could receive 6-8 inches max.
we will get rough Ocean conditions also here on the East tomorrow and til late into Saturday, during Sunday all should calm down and get back to normal quickly.
looks like a easy piece quick come quick go without dangerous conditions, as long as people use their brain and stay away from vulnerable areas in case of strong rain.
here is the Windfield of Isaac from 8AM this morning.
you can see that it has nothing left on its south.
View attachment 3005
