No changes so far and i dont expect anything dramatic for the rest of tonight.
Dorian does not look like a real storm, even that without doubt it has the windpower to be a named storm and the characteristics to try to get the real look alike, but til now it failed.
Still the same scenario for us, we have to wait til Dorian managed the Lesser Antilles and wanders in the eastern caribbean sea, thats the moment when model runs will agree on a certain path and on certain power development.
I still dont believe in the Hurricane SE of Hispaniola shown on the NOAA long range forecast. It is a possibility, but a very unlikely one.
Dorian will be over or nearby south of Barbados early monday evening, that will bring first real data specially about its real fact powers, as the windpowers shown til then are only guestimates by looks on satellite shots, and such estimates are very very difficult for such small storm, as details of this one are hard to be seen on the satellite coverage. Big storms are way easier for that.
Monday evening Barbados or slightly south of barbados as a tropical storm, then right away tuesday morning over the windward islands somewhere south of St Lucia to enter the caribbean sea, where we will see/know its real face and powers for the first time.
I expect it by tuesday morning to be a mid level TS with no well defined circulation.
It has then 10-15 hrs to get anything together and intensify over very favorable hot waters with a very high heat content in the eastern caribbean sea, then the mid strength windshear will together with the already present dry air hinder further strengthening.
I see it as a weak to medium TS wandering the northern caribbean sea WNWward pointing towards Cuba or even into the western caribbean sea.
Again, all long shots with high uncertainties.
We have to wait til it has passed the windward islands on tuesday morning or at least maybe shows face over barbados monday evening.
It could be a stronger than awaited/estimated storm and as such take a more NW ern route towards the SE or S-Central of Hispañola.
My own estimates tend on a weak storm struggling and moving more west missing us completely on our south.