2019 Hurricane Season

TropicalPaul

Bronze
Sep 3, 2013
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Mike how are the conditions looking over the next few weeks? You said earlier that September and October would be bad this year, are you still thinking the same regarding October or has anything changed?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Mike how are the conditions looking over the next few weeks? You said earlier that September and October would be bad this year, are you still thinking the same regarding October or has anything changed?

no changes so far.
last week conditions over the highway improved and are actually on the eastern half perfect for storm development,
as seen on Mayor Hurricane Lorenzo. systems pop up there and can grow from scratch to a max power in no time.
if Lorenzo would have hit atlantic waters just a few hundred miles further south, then we would have had a monster walking towards the NEern Caribbean Islands early next week.
as powerful as Lorenzo runs, it will survive a long time even when it wanders cooler waters and could continue as a strong hurricane force subtropical storm for a much longer time.
it could finally find some land to threaten, that would be the Azores Islands.
those favorable conditions are expected to widen westward, so by early October we should have favorable conditions for storm development over almost all the tropical highway.
if those also reach the Caribbean Sea is hard to tell, the eastern Caribbean Sea is actually on the hostile side of the scale against storm development.
the forecasts do not show any signs for a soon break off of the season,
this year we have to epect to have a long running season til end October, hopefully not longer than that.

Karen, as awaited and mentioned a few times before, does not have much steering powers.
in general that storm been to move it's WNW track, but fronts on the way do not allow such direction at this moment.
it is lingering half way between the Caribbean and Bermuda and could move into any direction the next days.
this morning the steering models show a completely different direction for Karen than they did last night.
this can change again, nobody has a clue abut the final direction, due leak of significant/strong steering directions.
at least no models expect restrengthening of the storm, so it should run dead in some days up there.

so far no further strong wave in sight for the next 2-3 days to come.

as long as Karen doesn't stick on position and send it's far southern tail end here,
so long we are looking forward on a hot nice weekend.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
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www.mikefisher.fun
all clear out there for us Islanders for this weekend.
the only active storm left is Mayor Hurricane Lorenzo.
it will stay a long living power machine.
Lorenzo is on it'sway out, NNEwards and later NEwards passing near or over the Azores on Cat1-2 Hurricane Force.
early next weekend Lorenzo can be expected to arrive in northern Europe/around Ireland
as a post tropical cyclone/sub tropical storm of at least TS/more likely Hurricane wind Force.
Lorenzo been the perfect power machine, lucky it did not reach a position where steering winds would have brought it to the Caribbean, as this one had all the potential for that rare kind of a perfect super storm.

the models do not expect any system to get active for the next days,
so all we can do is to enjoy a calm hot sunny weekend
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
nothing bad to spot out there for this week so far.
all running Waves are weak ones and not expected to become any storm,
like the one which passed over the island this weekend.
it brought a fresh good feeling cloudy day here on the East yesterday, a shower in the morning and some more last night at my backyard, beautiful. actually the surroundings of the house are lush green and look healthy.

the same goes for the next Wave hitting atlantic waters today and all in between Africa and the Caribbean.
here on the East we are already sunny again today, with just some lighter clouds lingering still in vicinity.
 

caribmike

Gold
Jul 9, 2009
6,791
195
63
It all looks quiet could it be that it was all for this season? Or is it to early to tell?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
1,637
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
It all looks quiet could it be that it was all for this season? Or is it to early to tell?

it looks indeed quiet, despite the model forecasts to have now perfect storm development conditions, but there aren't.
nothing on the radar other than some models developing a system mid north atlantic moving Westwards.
I see completely nothing I could write about.
we will see what conditions forecasts tell in a week, maybe we are already over for 2019,
that wouldn't be anything bad.
 

DR Solar

Bronze
Nov 21, 2016
1,600
343
83
Ordered RO membrane replacements for my 3 units that are well water supplied. They are suppose to be good for 2 years. With the ocean salt water intruding due to lack of rain, they lasted only one year.

My weather stations are showing lots of thunder many times and we hear some. But we don't get much rain, if any, at all.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
1,637
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
my weather stations do not hear thunder.
the only measure temps, winds, water amounts and wave heights.
to hear Thunder I use my 8 years ole fashioned system, a 2lbs Chihuahua named Lucy.
she can hear thunder from many many miles away and signal's her "finding" by jumping under the bed and not coming back out for a couple hrs at least, lol.
 

DR Solar

Bronze
Nov 21, 2016
1,600
343
83
Ya, we have a thunder alert dog too. We have had several weather stations over the years with most lasting about 1 year at best due to rusting, moving parts stop moving, wire/wifi connections fail and having to change batteris on the top of the roof.... that have leaked.

Have two of these now. No exposed metal or moving parts. The high pole mounted unit is solar so don't have to change batteries. (pool cleaning pole works great.) Over a year and really like them.

https://weatherflow.com/smart-home-weather-stations/
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
1,637
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Ya, we have a thunder alert dog too. We have had several weather stations over the years with most lasting about 1 year at best due to rusting, moving parts stop moving, wire/wifi connections fail and having to change batteris on the top of the roof.... that have leaked.

Have two of these now. No exposed metal or moving parts. The high pole mounted unit is solar so don't have to change batteries. (pool cleaning pole works great.) Over a year and really like them.

https://weatherflow.com/smart-home-weather-stations/

I did not know that one and have to say it looks very teasing, and on a very low price.
there may be a new christmas gift for myself in order.
thanks for the link
 

jstarebel

Silver
Oct 4, 2013
3,329
331
83
Ordered RO membrane replacements for my 3 units that are well water supplied. They are suppose to be good for 2 years. With the ocean salt water intruding due to lack of rain, they lasted only one year.

My weather stations are showing lots of thunder many times and we hear some. But we don't get much rain, if any, at all.

Your RO membranes should last a lot longer than 2 years with good pre-treatment and proper membrane recovery / flux rates. If you wish, send me your well water data and your system data, and I will be glad to have a look and run the numbers. Things like iron, manganese, and calcium reduce membrane life expectancy, and usually can be neutralized.
 

TropicalPaul

Bronze
Sep 3, 2013
1,365
614
113
The NHC is showing a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa this week. Mike what are your thoughts on this one please? They say tropical cyclone formation is unlikely this late in the season but are forecasting a 30% chance of development.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
1,637
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
let it leave Africa first to see what conditions may be present then.
at the moment we are since a full week full hot here on the east and still not end in sight, zero winds, zero rain, even the offshore sea is a flat plate between here and PR.
that's all together too much beauty to worry about the weather that may happen end of the month.
 
Feb 7, 2007
7,983
602
113
The NHC is showing a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa this week. Mike what are your thoughts on this one please? They say tropical cyclone formation is unlikely this late in the season but are forecasting a 30% chance of development.

TS Noel passed by here late October 2007 (25-27) and brought very heavy rains... Mudslides in Haiti. Hurricane season is not over yet, let's be on alert .
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,369
1,637
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
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it looks like our 2019 season come's to an end a couple weeks early than expected.
while the eastern highway still has potential, the forecasts show the upper atmosphere winds on the rise.
so by mid week upper level winds should be too strong to allow any storm rises.
if this is temporarily or already the constant conditions/end of season, we should know by next weekend.

as for now, Disturbance #1, the Tropical Wave that hit the eastern highway, is strong and rising powers.
it should manage to become a TD later tomorrow or Tuesday, but then it will go down quickly.
anyways, steering winds at it's location off the African west coast move it NW along the Cabo Verde Islands and out to Sea.

Disturbance#3 is just a weak Tropical Wave mid highway, conditions on the western highway will not allow development.
it should arrive over the lesser Antilles by Wednesday and enter the Caribbean sea, but it will stay just a tropical wave.

no dangers anywhere out there expected for our Island
it is very likely that we can call off the season by next weekend.
 

jstarebel

Silver
Oct 4, 2013
3,329
331
83
View attachment 3170View attachment 3170View attachment 3170

it looks like our 2019 season come's to an end a couple weeks early than expected.
while the eastern highway still has potential, the forecasts show the upper atmosphere winds on the rise.
so by mid week upper level winds should be too strong to allow any storm rises.
if this is temporarily or already the constant conditions/end of season, we should know by next weekend.

as for now, Disturbance #1, the Tropical Wave that hit the eastern highway, is strong and rising powers.
it should manage to become a TD later tomorrow or Tuesday, but then it will go down quickly.
anyways, steering winds at it's location off the African west coast move it NW along the Cabo Verde Islands and out to Sea.

Disturbance#3 is just a weak Tropical Wave mid highway, conditions on the western highway will not allow development.
it should arrive over the lesser Antilles by Wednesday and enter the Caribbean sea, but it will stay just a tropical wave.

no dangers anywhere out there expected for our Island
it is very likely that we can call off the season by next weekend.

I've noticed the currents starting to turn too and just in time.. We're preparing the mermaid to head out for new sailing adventures.

Thanks for taking the time to call out storms again this year Mike. Wishing you a great "Off Season".. Hope the fishing is good too.