2019 Hurricane Season

windeguy

Platinum
Jul 10, 2004
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With El Nino being over, does that mean the drought, at least on the north coast we have been having, has a chance to end?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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to have a season more or less active does not automatically mean more or less water to fight drought.
the tropical waves, who carry our water from far away over here to the caribbean, will cross the atlantic the same, active or low active hurricane season.
a active season just means that the odds, to get such tropical wave to carry a disturbance with higher chances/conditons to develop into a storm, are higher, but it still carries it's rain contents even without a stormy disturbance to be on the bandwagon.
sure, if a waves carries a disturbance, developing into a big storm, such storm then collects much higher waterloads from it's surroundings, but where they dump such down over land, it is high water amounts in a very short time frame, which mostly does not bring much/any relief from drought. it floods some isolated areas, but the drought striven grounds let on most parts a lot of it straight through, without a lasting relief to plants, the opposite, often destruction of plants and seeds is the case.
the real relief for drought areas is a constant soft watering, filling the natural and also our human built water reservoirs, so nature and ourselfes can use it over time periods.
the short hours of stormy waterloads are destructive and bring no relief on drought conditions.
from late spring til into fall drought like/at least very dry conditions, are the norm for our area, our water reservoirs get filled up usually from mid november til into march/april and maybe may.

as for the outlook on our stormy season ahead:
at the moment no activity is expected on the highway/East of the Islands til at least mid next week.
further into the future outlooks are too unreliable to guess on.
the conditions are shifting quickly towards the point where cyclone development will be possible/assisted, which is quiet the norm for this time of the year. usually the conditions are already ready for rock'n'roll by august 10th, this year we are a bit later, but not much.
the Eastern half of the tropical highway, specially the 1000 miles off the Western African Coast, are still on the edge or a bit below the treashhold of needed Ocean Surface Temperatures to assist/fuel cyclone development.

the final 1500 Miles of the Highway/East of the Island Belt, are already on fueling margin and the whole caribbean sea is well over the minimum fueling margin.
so for the next 7 weeks we sure will have to observe what ever "blop" pops up on any radar screen between western Africa and the Caribbean. it is a nice assistance to have this season again a PR Radar Station up and running, while on the NE'ern Islands some holes are still present on the coverage since Irma and Maria took out a good number of our eyes on the East 2 years ago. the more important middle section of the esternmost caribbean island is nicely covered, so we will not be with one or both eyes blind this season.
the thick dry air content in the atmosphere, the so named SAL(Saharan Air Layer) is still covering fine the northern half of the highway, while the southern lanes are quiet humid and contain good amounts of wet powers to plane a Path.

Nothing bad expected anywhere for this season so far, but as we know, we would never know about such more than maximum a week in advance.

an other hot and mostly dry weekend to enjoy
may we never get short on cold Presidentes during our dry hot summers
 

TropicalPaul

Bronze
Sep 3, 2013
1,365
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Any thoughts on the depression which is moving across the Atlantic? NHC says there is a 50% chance of formation within 5 days and it is moving WNW.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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www.mikefisher.fun
NOAA only shows it with a 20% of chance for a storm for the next 5 days.
I am til tuesday night without any computer, but the simple stuff on the phone shows nothing dangerous so far.
A Invest below the 10thN moving westward into the southeastern caribbean sea, still 1200 miles east of the easternmost islands.
Nothing to worry about at this point
 

william webster

Platinum
Jan 16, 2009
28,445
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Torrential rains yesterday on the north east coast....

Nagua area thru Cabrera.....wild !!

\not much wind but WATER !!
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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www.mikefisher.fun
Thats not looking promising for late next week.
A Hurricane in the eastern caribbean sea early wednesday, expected to move towards the SE of the Island. We have to observe the updates for the projected path the next days.
And thats early, if it gains powers as fast as forecasted, as the conditions are expected to be very favorable for development starting mid september.
As i mentioned before, i will not be on a computer before tuesday night, so just look on the NOAA forecast map.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
View attachment 3142

View attachment 3143

I hope it works that the 2 pictures show up here.
The 1st is a shot of the TD, far from what a organized storm looks like and a very small one, IF it manages under the given circumstances to become a real one in the 1st place.
The 2nd picture shows the different model runs,
They are completely disagreeing, there is no visible line to any conclusions, yet.
And none of the reliable models dares to show data fare enough ahead of time for the days when such stom would already be in the eastern caribbean sea.
As fact they struggle to show the Invest and its heading and powers for just 24hrs from now.
The only thing to do is wait til the predictions get a clearer view.
Conditions are not the best for storm development, even that they are not hostile against a storm neither.
Development is possible but i would say there is enough dry saharan sand in the atmosphere to keep development slow the next 24hrs.
 

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
1,848
56
48
Latest Update on Tropical Depression 5 : DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude
47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).