2020 Hurricane Season

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Olly

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Latest Forecasts for 2020. Above average season expected

From Stormcarib.com

Just 2 more months before Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts. On 2nd April the first of quantitative hurricane forecasts was published online by Klotzback et al. from Colorado State University. It seems that we are in for an above average season... They expect a total of 16 named storms (12.1 is normal), 8 hurricanes (6.4 is normal) and 4 major hurricanes (2.7 is normal). The chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 58%. Normal is 42%. The state of ENSO (El Nino vs. La Nina) is always important for us. El Nino conditions usually means a slow season, and La Nina will be more busy. Now it looks like ENSO conditions won't be either, or maybe a weak La Nina. The big driver this year seems to be the higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
Some recent analog years (years with similar ocean and atmospheric conditions) are 1996 and 2008. Looking through the archive I remember for 1996 Bertha and Hortense and for 2008 Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Paloma. This might of course be totally different from your perspective.

Courtesy Gert - Thanks for the update.

Go to Stormcarib.com for links.
 
Caonabo

Caonabo

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Could any of the resident Hurricane Chasers within the forum comment on their thoughts of the record high temperatures over the last six weeks, and what they believe that means for us this storm season?
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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record high temps here on the Island have no influence on any storm activity.
the important/significant temps are the Sea Surface Temperatures ove rthe Tropical Atlantic,
our Highway, the watres betweenthe West African Coast and the Lesser Antilles.
those SST{s areon high levels, which favors storm development, so we can await a above average active season out there.
high or low activity does not mean to get more or less storms to affect our Island,
but a higher activity of course is increasing the chances/dangers to get bothered.
but this is 2020,
so I guess the 2020 Hurricane Season gets canceled/shut down due COVID19 travel restrictions.
all stormy things will stay over there off the West African Coast, as we keep here our stormy borders closed.
 
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DR Solar

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MikeFisher said:
record high temps here on the Island have no influence on any storm activity.
the important/significant temps are the Sea Surface Temperatures ove rthe Tropical Atlantic,
our Highway, the watres betweenthe West African Coast and the Lesser Antilles.
those SST{s areon high levels, which favors storm development, so we can await a above average active season out there.
high or low activity does not mean to get more or less storms to affect our Island,
but a higher activity of course is increasing the chances/dangers to get bothered.
but this is 2020,
so I guess the 2020 Hurricane Season gets canceled/shut down due COVID19 travel restrictions.
all stormy things will stay over there off the West African Coast, as we keep here our stormy borders closed.
Click to expand...
But we are in drought with high temps very early. Too early to predict the whole season but not liking it.
 
Caonabo

Caonabo

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william webster said:
Search the Atlantic temperatures... closer to Africa

that's what i read from Fishman's post
Click to expand...

He mentioned Sea Surface Temperatures. Would the record high average heat days we have been experiencing here over the last six weeks not increase the Sea Surface Temperatures in our region considerably? We don't necessarily need a 10 day long build up of a Cat 5 to cause us damage here within the RD.
Just kicking it around the pitch.
 
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william webster

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I think the genesis is closer to Africa...

with the right conditions there - it starts...
\
Let Mike answer
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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there is no One Rule that would explain/apply to all storm evolutional things.
in simple cut short terms, it is
the SSTs far East of the Caribbean, decide the frequency Storms build up and decide about the high powers to reach.
the Ocean Temperatures near the Caribbean and within the Caribbean/around our Island, decide how good/bad such developed and arriving Storm can hold it's powers or even gains further powers prior to a "Hit".
sure a Storm can just pop up near the Island and develop from there in a short time frame to high powers and run a devastating course,
but that's not the "Norm", not the way very most of those things run.
the big Ones start far out our East and get their "perfect" powerful shape during a many days lasting evolution on the way,
that evolution very often make's such Storm even invulnerable against not so favorable conditions near the Islands for some time.

and the other important part:
a above average active Season does Not mean that we would get bothered in any way.
a below average Season would Not mean anything safe/safer/less dangerous than a avove average season.
it only take's one medium simple Tropical Storm running a direct hit on a vulnerable Land Area at the right tidal time, to do huge harm.
yes, such can easy start to pop up/build just off the coast, right here.

many big storms during a ctive season does not mean many landfalls of big storms anywhere.
and when we look on teh history of those things, then we see that we are over here quiet well off, very seldom visited, a Hurricane Safe Hole.

what ever the "long range" Outlooks are, we'll never know til the time comes.

and i don't think the world had ever a Hurricane as devastating for Lifes and Economies as this running COVID Storm,
so a few winds blowing around somewhere will this 2020 be a minor concern, i guess.
 
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Caonabo

Caonabo

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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looks like for the 6th year in a row we will get teh first storm of the season before it's official June 1st start.
we can expect to see Tropical Storm "Arthur" later tomorrow in theFlorida Straight.
general ,ovement is NE-wards towards the Bahamas.
no troubles from this one for our Island.
and No, I will not tell people on it's way "stay at home", hahaha, as most today's seem to prefer anything but their home.
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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not DR related, but to have the info about our 2020 season out there.
Tropical Storm Arthurs is born, for the 6th year in a row a pre season tropical stormbefore June 1st/official Season Start.
it wanders offshore first North, then more NNE and turning NEwards, means first towards North Carolina and then turning more and more out on Sea.
it should stay all the time in a safe distance from land.
high surf hitting the coast of the Carolinas should be the only effects due Arthur.
at this moment we have no active waves out there which would look like some deveopment should be expected.
and anyways,
we are still on "quedate en casa", so no warning for anybody to stay at home would be necessary.
at this moment every household should be at home and stocked with the essentials,
so we are this year anyways since before the season start, ready for the big one.

have a great sunday everyone
 
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