2020 Hurricane Season

[Cdn_Gringo]

I have my fingers and toes crossed that both of these systems steer far away from us. I like my electricity too much to go days without it. My landlord hasn't fixed the leaky roof and windows yet so that's another reason for me to hope for calm seas but I know my luck will run out eventually. Isaias was enough for me.

 

[GringoRubio]

NHC

 

[MikeFisher]

the system over the Windward Islands(Yellow Cross) does not show any changes, which shouldbe fine for us.
speeding 20mphr westwards, no organization visible,
it will pass far on our S as a very fast tropical waves whch carries some water with it,
doesn't look like something to worry about.

the things look different with the System SW of the Cape Verde Islands.
this one seem's to get quiet quickly organized for such huge Mass and is pointing towards the Leeward Islands.
this Tracking is of course a very loooong shot and get's better once it passed the 45thW.
this system is the joined venture between 2 areas of disturbed weather, which been originally at least 200 miles apart of each other.
their influence on each other resulted in the production of a strong Low Pressure Area on Sea Surface Level.
that low area got during today very well organized, is nice round formed and it is grouping thunderstorm araes on differnt sides near and at that Center.
Sat shots early this evening already showed light outer bands, so this Low is on a circulation.
if this process continues, we can have a Storm up already this Wednesday.
the conditions on the further path westward are well in favor to form and fuel a storm.
it will be worth to take a closer look tomorrow afternoon and start the long range outlook on dry/moisture air and and coming/going windshears for better detailed conditions on the highway for late this week.

 

[GringoRubio]

It certainly appears that that second storm will form into a cyclone.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

It looks like we are going to get hit again by whatever this turns into. Conditions appear to support the formation of a strong hurricane this time around.

 

[Jim L]

Pantry is stocked. I'll have to pull down the wind chimes for sure for this one!

 

[MikeFisher]

System 97L is in the Caribbean Sea and already S of PR, far S of PR.
my shown picture is from 8AM Tuesday morning August 18th 2020.
this one will not be of any concern for the DR, passing far S of PR today and far S of DR tonight and tomorrow,
in and out in no time, speeding at least 20mphr forward towards the Western Caribbean Sea,
where it may or may not become a TS or whatsoever, it will be gone for us.

our focus stay's on System 98La 1000 miles SW of the Cpe Verde Islands.
while my Tracking will make it miss the Northern Lesser Antilles on their NE, it is too early for exact tracking outlooks, as a storm did not form, yet.
98L has a clear Center and moves a very wide area of moisture in a well organized circulation.
Thnderstorm areas are grouped in different sectors and distances around that Center,
so this system is to me a Storm in progress and it is organizing very fast.
this could be declared the next TD or right away TS already the next 24hrs.
forward Speed is a bit gigher than my yesterday mentioned 15mphr, but the fast forward speed did not bother a fast organization process so far.

The Powers to await:
it is too early for a long range power outlook, a Storm first has to be up and running, to then make exact calculations on it's future growth.
from it's actual position til reaching the 50thW conditions are very good, hence a TD/TS could be shown already tomorrow night.
after the 50thW it will get some dry air layer in it's way, which is actually drifting from the N to the SW, in the "Storm's" path.
and the formerly northern located Windshear over the Greater Antilles is drifting SE, which will also bring it in the "Storm's" path.
30Knots windshear injecting dry air into a already existing Cyclone, approaching the northern Leeward Islands, would give it a good knock down for several notches.
so at this moment I do not see a Hurricane coming anywhere near the DR or PR.
BUT,
all this is a long shot, as none of the positions/powers can reliably be calculated before a Storm is up and running.

we will see how it develops/changes etc during today and evaluate again tonight.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

From your fingers to god's ears Mike.

 

[MikeFisher]

97L is nice far S of the Mona Passage now.
for98L it is too erly, i look later this evening to have enough hours of difference to count on speed, direction etc.

 

[migoga]

97L is nice far S of the Mona Passage now.
for98L it is too erly, i look later this evening to have enough hours of difference to count on speed, direction etc.

You are a godsend. Forget about all other forecasts

 

[MikeFisher]

Invest 98L on our Tropical Highway.
the general movement during today been a WNW Tracking, pointing towards the NEern edge of the Northern Leward Islands.
the system stays organized, has a clear center and is in progress to get rid of the very large heavy weather area behind it/on it's East.
I say it will manage that, which will allow to get the job done to become a TD/TS by late otmorrow or Thursday.
we have to wait and see what finally will be left for size, this could build a very well sized storm, IF it manages quick enough to become one.
at this moment the strongest powers are on it's Western side pushed ahead of the system.
what shifted during today nicely ESEwards is the Windshear.
I see this affecting the system very soon, already starting later tonight.
it may be strong enough to completely hinder the forming of a storm.
it is hard to impossible to guess on possibilities of powers on a system which is not a storm, yet.
Ideally it will not manage to become a storm at all.
we will see that during the next couple days.

 

[Drake]

Most of the devasting storms that have devastated the DR in recorded history have occurred in the last Two weeks of August and first two weeks of September. We are presently in high season. Keep an eye on shortly to form laura and whats behind her.

 

[MikeFisher]

the "behind Laura" is already on the maps, 99L over Sierra Leone/West African Mainland and will hit Tropical Atlantic Waters in around 45-55hrs from now.
97L just passed the S of DR last night and is now S of Haiti.
98L get's a closer look after lunch and hopefully later today we get first Hurricane Hunter Data about 98L,
because this morning Hurricane Hunter "Rayito" left Puerto Rico and is now on St Croix, ready for the fun rides.
the flight shedule is not out, yet, but should be up any moment.
I guess it will run a sweep this afternoon and on that 98L will become a TD/TS.
windpowers on it's W look strong enough for TS Force and it has a clear Center with circulation, so to me there is no need to name it first a TD only.
generalTracking over night beenthe same WNW, pointing to the NWern edge of the Lesser Antilles.
at actual speed and heading arrival time at the caribbean would be late friday,
as 98L is now on the 45thW, so it has only the final 1000miles to go.

 

[MikeFisher]

standing as of 11:30AM Wednesday August 19th 2020.
Invest 98L did manage to cut of the influence of the heavy mass on it's East, it was too much to include it in a "Super Sized Storm" circulation.
the system is well organized and continues to group Thunderstorm areas around one common center.
the East is still "clear", as it just cut off the bothering big Mass there.
N, W and S contain thick moisture and medium strength Thunderstorm activity.
it will run today and for several days on it's furthe rpath into light-medium Dry Air masses
and closing in towards the Islands on Friday it will also be already under good 25-30Knots of Windshear bothering it's NW and W.
so I would await that it's powers will shift/get present more on it's SW and S sides and stay limited on the NW and N.
as well organized it is and favorable conditions still are today and tonight, it is still a very large area it tries to swing together,
so it will take long hours to do so while it get's deeper into dry air and closer to the mentioned windshear.
I see it on the edge to form a Storm til friday noon or to get such hindered by the influence of shown dry air and upcoming windshear.
on the NE of the northernmost Islands I see the conditions not favorable for a quick grow up of a Storm,
but that's a 2-3 days long shot for a "Storm" which did not form, yet, or may even not form at all.
what it will bring for sure is a good watering for the Leeward Islands and PR, as most water should be expected to be carried on the system's S.
how much of such water could reach the DR and which parts of DR, I can't tell,
as the Tracking for so many days ahead of time is highly uncertain, at least as long as we do not have a constantly running Storm to track.

 

[MikeFisher]

comparing my 11:30 shot from this Noon(posted at 2:30PM this afternoon today) to this one taken 8:00PM this evening,
show's clear the quick organization AND the same time starting Destruction of the "Storm's" construction.
it managed today to group thunderstorm areas and moisture/cloud cover all around the center.
the same time, in effect since some hours now, it get's the NW Quadrant destroyed/dried out by intruding Dry Saharan Air.
this system is racing against the clock, because this dry air will continue to bother he NW also tomorrow
and by late Thursday and during Friday the same NW Quadrant will get hit by high windshear.
it has to become a TD/TS before the high windshear kicks in effect, or i don't see it to become a Storm before it would already be North of PR/DR or even further out.
the strongest part, formerly the West, moved to the North of the Center.
during that process, due the dry air there, the NW powers disappeared and the West is weak.
South and East sides of the System have good powers and no unfavorable conditions to bother.
it moves fats forward, at least 15mphr, so I don't think it has the time to develop into a nice shape, due the missing NW.
on the other hand, the existing Thunderstorm areas, specially in the N Quadrant, run speeds near TS Force Winds,
so NOAA may declare a TD or TS at any moment.
the circulation is given, a Center is all day clear present, windpowers exist, the incredients to give a system a Name.
I hope I am right on this, I don't see it to become a strong well formed thing,
I see it going fleddered by dry air and windshear before the weekend.

 

[MikeFisher]

forgot to mention the Tracking:
no changes on the tracking today, it should scratch along or miss near out the northernmost Islands on their NE

 

[caribmike]

Heck, do I love Storm construction destruction

 

[MikeFisher]

the System won the race against the clock and TD 13 is born and running.
due the dry air is has no powers reaching out far to the W or NW, but it has Thunderstorms concentrated at the center all around on all sides.
this will be named during tomorrow.
also due the dry air influence on it's path(NW and W) the big rainloads are carried on the S of the storm, towards PR and DR on the pass.
it is actually moving WNW, almost NW, but that direction will not stay on for long,
as we have a clear strong border of the Atlantic High with 1016 and 1020mb High Pressure N of the NEern Caribbean.
such storms do not like high pressure areas and stay away from those.
that means for TD 13 it will turn more W on a WNW or even WWNW Tracking.
we will see more accurate tracking later tomorrow, once the storm showed its tracking for some consecutive hours,
but at this moment i would expect it to move WWNWwards out over Sea N of PR and DR, but not very far out on Sea.
both Islands should await heavy rainfalls fromthe storm's southern quadrants.
Tracking should be very accurate from tomorrow afternoon on and I would await that Rayito/Hurricane Hunters from St Croix will start their flights into it to deliver the accurate data.
while I see it as a TS tomorrow, I don't see a Hurricane brewing.
the windshear over the NEern Islands and over PR and DR should do it's part, together with the already bothering dry air,
to limit this one to a TS only.
let's see how it manages after an other 24hrs with the dry air in it's way, the more moisture get's taken away the better for us,as we sure don't need any over the top rainfalls again.
the big advantage for us on this one over Isaias is the fast forward speed and the outlook that we do not get powerful rains concentrated at a storm center, but the farer out bands of it's southern sides while it is passing along our North Shores.
the best would be of course, to see later tomorrow that southern parts get cut of the center/circulationdue the N-S intruding dry air on it's West.
I am sure this one is a big headache for the NHC Pros to show a forecast about expected Powers.
we saw compact storms walking straight through such medium light dry air mass, while others got taken down completely by the same.
TD13 is not a strong TS on the edge to be a Huricane and shut a Center off from the dry outside influence.
I see a TD struggling with the dry air and max managing to get a TS name due enough windspeed in it's Thunderstorm area near the center,
but far from a brewing powerful storm.
who ever lives in areas vulnerable for flooding, def has to start the appropriate preparations or be ready to spend the weekend Not at Home.
on it's actual fast forward speed it should be N of the Mona Passage by Saturday Noon.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Mike and the NHC are not in complete agreement on this one. I like mIke's forecast a little bit better . We are going to get something from TD13 on the north coast I hope no winds driving the rain horizontally. Tomorrow will be time to gather up all the light items outside and move them indoors again. While not a proper hurricane a Tropical storm is more than sufficient to be considered a problem with unwanted effects.

 

[MikeFisher]

the Transformation process of a formerly huge wide system into a compact developing Storm.
the 1st photo is from 8AM this morning and it is seen that it get's rid of the heavy moisture on the S/SW.
dry air did not allow to keep the formerly very wide area of circulation together.

just a few hours later, photo is from around 10:40AM today, we see that the heavy tackle from the SW is completely separated and the S get's a wide part separated, too, in process.

the outlook on the Windshear.
Red Areas are the ones where Windshear is high enough to be very bothering/destructive to a Storm.
the wide and strong windshear area over the NEern Caribbean Islands got devided, it broke off last night.
it show's now an open Path with non-bothering conditions, which TD13 will use today and tomorrow to pass NE of the Leeward Islands.

dry air has still it's influence on the storm's NW side during today, but the dry air layer went thinner and thinner, get's sucked up by the approaching moisture.
we should see the name for the next Tropical Storm there today,
as this system went from huge to compact, it will be well reorganized in a few hours, near TS Force Winds are present at the Center.
dry air will today still prohibit a quick intensification for bigger powers, it will slow down the growing up process for the next days, but not hinder it completely.

Tracking and forward speed did not change since last evening.
a fast 20mphr forward movement WNW, should place the center of a TS north of the Mona Passage Saturday Noon/early afternoon.

the same as we saw on TD14(formerly 97L, which just passed our South in the Caribbean Sea without effects on DR), the best development conditions are given after passing the 70thW/reaching 75Degrees West. TD14 formed theer this morning despite strong windshear blowing into it's NW/N.
the same should be expected for TD13, lucky us this means it will start it's growing up strong process when on it's way out/away from our North Shores.

What to await:
Saturday Night the quick pass of a TS along our North Shores, it will already be gone early Sunday Morning.
TS Force Winds on our NE/NCentral are possible but most likely no such windpowers will reach DR Soil anywhere.
the Pass will be close enough to bring the DR under the storm's SW/S/SE rainbands.
theer are still no estimates about any to expect amount of water, as the storm is in transition now and cutting off parts on it's South.
by tomorrow we will see how wide of a moistured arae it will finally move in circulation and can estimate incoming waters for the weekend.
quicker strengthening of the storm should not start to kick in before it leaves our area towards the SEern Bahamas.
as conditions, like mentioned windshear, are shifting significantly the last 24hrs, it is hard to say how strong it will become and how big, while walking along the Bahamas, but that's anyways out of our reach and not calculated.

looks like this weekend will not be a beach weekend.
let's be prepared for some watering