2020 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

the trend show's clear.
getting rid of all hard to move masses, TD13 is forming into a compact easier to manage TS.
it should get it's name any moment this afternoon..
wandering still WNW it should do it's "turn westwards" later today for a final WWNW Heading pointing towards SE Bahamas
and stay on it's pass out over water off our North Shores.

 

[NanSanPedro]

the trend show's clear.
getting rid of all hard to move masses, TD13 is forming into a compact easier to manage TS.
it should get it's name any moment this afternoon..
wandering still WNW it should do it's "turn westwards" later today for a final WWNW Heading pointing towards SE Bahamas
and stay on it's pass out over water off our North Shores.

View attachment 3209

Mike, I'm idly curious, what would make it shift southward?

 

[MikeFisher]

Mike, I'm idly curious, what would make it shift southward?

a strong and southwards shifting border of the Atlantic's High Pressure.
exactly that High Frontier is already the reason why this storm is not going the more usual NW and later even NNWern Track to turn towards mid Atlantic Open.
due this Frontier it will keep a more western tracking, WWNW and should move along the Bahmas and Cuba towards the Florida Straight.
chances to develop a well fueled Hurricane are actually very good on that path, depending if the windshear keeps a open path or even goes down.
here you see (photo is from 8AM this morning today) the 2016mb High Pressure Frontier, it came down southwards the last 48hrs, hence my tendency for such light turn in earlier posts to go along our North Shores and not from there NW/NNWwards out/away.
a Frontier which such stormy sytem tries to stay away from.
it will not move further south the next days, so this Storm will not get a turn towards our North Shores.
it is moving fast, there is not enough time for such drastic change of steering conditions before it will be positioned North of Samana Saturday evening.

 

[GringoRubio]

Sunday isn't looking like a good beach day. And, isn't this the Katrina track:

 

[TropicalPaul]

It's so nice to have Mike back isn't it. Wonderful.

 

[TropicalPaul]

Has anyone else noticed on the NHC website that the southern US is possibly going to be hit by both TD 13 and TD 14 on Tuesday? That could be interesting. Sorry to talk about something not strictly connected with DR but since we are talking TD13 I thought it relevant.

 

[MikeFisher]

the dry air mass stayed nice in effect today, no TS formed/declared, yet.this evening the whole W and SW of the storm is dry.
there is little water or storm activity present on the NW and N of the storm, zero on it's W and SW.
what is left as moisture and windy araes is now located elongated out from the center to it's SE
and closer to the Center the strongest windforce on the E.
the storm show's nothing clear, stay's a hard to predict system in steady transition to keep rolling despite the dry air.
this constant changing of it's thunderstorm areas from one quadrant to an other, to avoid to get dried out, is it's way to survive til on more favorable grounds.
to doso it get's smaller in size, more compact.
for tonight it will have way less dry air to fight han it had during today, so we will see it to continue with ths transition all night long.
tracking is on teh expected WNW to WWNW, considering the uncertainties of a forecast a touch of the northernmost Islands, PR or even a light touch of the DR's nortehrnmost tips is not out of the possible, nut not very likely.
the most likely path is out over Sea along the north shores of PR and DR.

 

[MikeFisher]

by tomorrow we should see if this one can become a TS, will stay a TD or if it will pass us just as a Tropical Wave.
the shape it survive's tonight's battle with the dry air, will show us the face it will have on the pass on Saturday.

 

[MikeFisher]

this shot is from 1:30AM tonight.
TD13isnice fleddered, noheavy powers connected direct with the Center.
there is hope that this process continues til the morning, dry air bothering heaviliest.

 

[Chirimoya]

Thunderstorms before dawn at PUJ, cloudy and relatively cool morning.

 

[DR Solar]

So nice to have Mr. Fisher, he is our best weather information source.

Just another tool that some may find helpful. This is an interactive map that you can view different information.

WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground

Weather Underground’s WunderMap provides interactive weather and radar Maps for weather conditions for locations worldwide.

www.wunderground.com

 

[windeguy]

 

[Conchman]

View attachment 3217

Its been upgraded to TS Laura by a Hurricane Hunter plane. The 11am update should reflect this.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Waiting to hear what Mike has to say but the NHC puts Laura almost right on top of the north coast. We should get most of the winds and all of the water. Looks like mostly a nighttime event this time. Don't like storms in the daylight even less in the dark of night.

 

[Dolores]

With the naming of the storm, Tropical Storm Laura breaks the record for the earliest 12th named storm in the Atlantic. This had been held by Luis, back in the 1995 season.

 

[MikeFisher]

View attachment 3217

this tracking is outdated, it iswandering far more South.

 

[Conchman]

 

[Dolores]

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron in Samana to the border with Haiti.

 

[MikeFisher]

the numerous transitions finally placed the center significantly further South than prior expected.
all the former Tracking is null and useless.
my here shown line is the Nortehrnmost it will go,
more likely it will stay a bit S of my shown line and Hedaing be Full Straight Westward during today, before it swings back on the WNW Route.
it most likely will hit from SE-WNW SCentral PR or SE DR. on such just new formed storm tracking does not get any better, it takes time which we don't have.
the timeline stays exat the same, tomorrow morning ifor PR and tomorrow noon/just a 4 hrs later if it run's into DR.

it will be tomorrow Noon/Saturday on the Line of the Mona Passage.
Nortehrn or Central or Southern Mona, thats the big uncertainty we have.
it does look very very unlikely to miss on the N.
to hit straight from mid Mona Passage would be a very rare but possible way, like Jeanne came over in 2004, but this time we have a different direction.
to come straight on PC it would have to go over PR first.
Sern Mona Passage is more likely, as the stormwill wander West for the first hours today, it stays far more South than originally awaited.

as the Center placed itself on the south, the whole windfield of Tropical Storm Foce Winds is on the North, it is shaped exactly as Isaias.
the areas N of the Center are the ones which get the wind beating(that was fine on Isaias, we had the strongest part here in PC and it was easy to stand) and the most amounts of rainfalls.
this one does not carry the waterloads of Isaias, but this time we do not have bone dry conditions and empty water reservoirs, as was the case with Isaias.

either way, now is the time to get the cattle in and abandon flood-vulnerable areas.
this compact new formed Storm can show significant changes o each update,
I recommend everybody to keep an eye on ever new udate of NHC today.
tomorrow we will write again our own updates live.
I doubt that i will be online, as I got a new connection here just a week ago and it works completely sh.it, but we will see.
at least my smartphone should stay connected on its internet plan.

 

[Africaida]

Thank you again @MikeFisher