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2020 Hurricane Season
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Weather might be easier to forecast soon
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/...k&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Science
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/...k&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Science
while the reliability improved the last 10 years by a thousand times,
within the next several decades they sure will not be able to predict the wether for any location of the planet with any accuracy for 3 weeks in advance, not even for 1 week.
and many weather patterns change last minute, from one moment to an other, that can not be forecasted not even an hour prior to it's happening, not in this century at least.
and they do not mention any "location" restrictions.
take our in comparison well reliable and far ahead of time predictable tropical storms/hurricanes/TD's etc.
their occurances are during the last years every year better and better forecasted a long time before the first cloud could be seen on the Horizon over the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic. but still too many factors working together change the track or powers of such "brewing"storm" days later, just hours before a certain area would be hit, or even more last minute, while it already approaches but turns somewhere else 100 miles/4-8hrs before a hit.
if you forecast for a wide area, like for example the whole Caribbean as one destination, then the long range forecasts are already todays very accurate, sometimes(mostly not that far) a week in advance.
but if you wanna get specific and forecast the simple weather for NYC, or Boulder Colorado, or Hannover Germany, for that the scientists and weather frogs need at least an other hundred years of observations/comparisons to historical happenings and waaaaay bigger/faster super computers.
you can todays tell a week and sometimes further ahead of time, that a bad weather system will come up to effect the SE of the USA somewhere between Cape Hatteras and Southern Florida..
on day 3, 4 days left til D-Day, you can be more presice and tell that it will be minimum a 25mphr and maximum 65mphr Storm and that it will hit the mainland somewhere between the Northernmost point of N-Carolina and Northernmost Florida.
an other 2 days later, 5 days into the 1 week long range forecast, just 2days til D-Day, you can accurately tell tht the storm will have a minimum of 30mphr and a maximum of 55mphr, and that it will hit land between the Central S-Carolina and the Central N-Carolina Coast
thats the absolute maximum what forecasts todays can show/predict, and from there on it often gets VERY different than awaited,.
once the system/storm approaches the awaited area, so many local small patterns can produce a significnt turn/change of direction/change of powers,
til to date never shown/awaited in any forecast.(yes, Mike Fisher always get's it right, but not the others writing for the NYT, lol).
to tell Rain or Shine, high winds or calmness, for let's say South Beach/Florida as a small area, or for Bavaro Beach Punta Cana, Juanillo Beach Cap Cana, Higuey City, such is todays even just 2 days out simply impossible, none of those forecasts has any reliability, it is pure hit&miss and the positioning of my Chihuahua Lucy's Ears and impression of her eyes would be a more reliable indicator about the weather to come for the next 24hrs for a specific small area.
you know that heavy weather is approaching the DR East Shores from out of the East, you know a couple days prior even more or less the size, but you still/todays could not tell 2 days out if it will be full drowing rain or not even a single drop of rain for my house here 2 days later.
it may rain down over me full powers all day long, it could also rain down full powers just a few miles north on the map in the Nisibon Area and here at home we get not a single drop of rain all that weekend long and enjoy a Sunday BBQ that bad weather forecasted weekend.
sooo,
for real reliable "long range" forecasts for Local Weather,
we will for our life time not be able to decide to plan a BBQ next weekend or call it off due unfavorable wind/rain etc in the forecast,
such does todays not even work for just 2 days out and not worth to think about weeks of advance notice.
honestly, that NYTimes article linked above, did not state/show anything, it just tells out of the blue that the weather soon will be forecasted reliable for 3 weeks in advance. that's liek Trump telling the whole world in May 2020 that Covid doesn't exist and a vaccine is available for everybody this summer 2020. all just BS.
if i would be the owner of that newspaper, the guy who wrote the article would be already fired without any liquidation payments, lol.
as for our actual Hurricane Season 2020 Outlook,
we look all fine for this week (which could change tonight unexpected)
and we should await more storms to come starting mid next week (which could also be that no more storms will pop up for the reminder of the year).
that's as precise as a lomg range forecast for the next few days(not for the next 3 weeks) could be.
who tell's he/she has different abilities, is sure a Writer fr the NYT, lol
The conclusion of the NYTimes article linked to above:
"“We should see an improvement in tropical weather prediction in the next 10 years,” he said.
We are so happy to have MikeFisher in the meantime!
"“We should see an improvement in tropical weather prediction in the next 10 years,” he said.
We are so happy to have MikeFisher in the meantime!
and once they imporved, I will have improved Further, hehe.
Wow Mike, I'm outta breath.
I see many respected weather people stating.. ,"The models are broken. "
I agree. Climate change is changing the weather and fancy technology can't figure it out.
Old school rules.
the forecast models are really good, and they went very significantly better as for storm tracking and forecasted powers the last few years, waaaaay better.
todays we really get a TS shown mid tropical highway Before it's clouds even have left the African Continent to hit Atlantic Waters.
but from that huge improvement to the point where at the same time we could tell that the upcoming TS will sure become a full TS or a Hurricane and will sure reach 10 days later the Caribbean/Antilles/Bahmas etc etc, to reach such we are light years away, nothing of todays tecnology/knowledge is anywhere near such.
before a storm is up and running, it is todays impossible to give tracking and upcoming powers with any accuracy.
but on average, once a storm is up, it is only 2-5 days before that "storm" or what ever will then really form up, would reach teh first landfall point.
to be acurate 3 weeks in advance, would mean to observe clouds over EASTERN Africa or near India and then precisely calculate what they will be in 3 weeks when near the Caribbean.
Mission Impossible.
todays we really get a TS shown mid tropical highway Before it's clouds even have left the African Continent to hit Atlantic Waters.
but from that huge improvement to the point where at the same time we could tell that the upcoming TS will sure become a full TS or a Hurricane and will sure reach 10 days later the Caribbean/Antilles/Bahmas etc etc, to reach such we are light years away, nothing of todays tecnology/knowledge is anywhere near such.
before a storm is up and running, it is todays impossible to give tracking and upcoming powers with any accuracy.
but on average, once a storm is up, it is only 2-5 days before that "storm" or what ever will then really form up, would reach teh first landfall point.
to be acurate 3 weeks in advance, would mean to observe clouds over EASTERN Africa or near India and then precisely calculate what they will be in 3 weeks when near the Caribbean.
Mission Impossible.
The Washington Post has a better story than the NYTimes on the outlook for the rest of the hurricane season. Their focus is mostly on what could happen in the US, where October storms are not unusual, as they are for the Dominican Republic. It explains that the warm waters in the Caribbean means more storms could develop. "...the entirety of the Caribbean Sea remain much warmer than normal. There is plenty of heat energy to encourage a hurricane, should one form."
If you go through the archives of the Weather & Beyond forum, you can read about Noel (29-29 October 2007) and Olga (11-12 December 2007), two tropical storms that caused major damages in the Dominican Republic and that came outside of the September historical hurricane month for the country. The damages were mostly caused by flooding. Back then, "Chris" did the forecasting.
So, as MikeFisher makes it clear for all of us... a big storm can kick up overnight. Those of us who choose to live in the tropics need to be prepared.
Here is the Washington Post outlook:
If you go through the archives of the Weather & Beyond forum, you can read about Noel (29-29 October 2007) and Olga (11-12 December 2007), two tropical storms that caused major damages in the Dominican Republic and that came outside of the September historical hurricane month for the country. The damages were mostly caused by flooding. Back then, "Chris" did the forecasting.
So, as MikeFisher makes it clear for all of us... a big storm can kick up overnight. Those of us who choose to live in the tropics need to be prepared.
Here is the Washington Post outlook:
I remember the effects of one Tropical Storm that quickly developed into something else off of Jamaica in late October 2012.
I was enroute to Barahona at the time, and could not help but wonder what a powerful storm this must be in order to feel it's effects here, although we were not predicted to be any place near it's forecasted path.
That storm became Hurricane Sandy.
We were fortunate, others were not.
I was enroute to Barahona at the time, and could not help but wonder what a powerful storm this must be in order to feel it's effects here, although we were not predicted to be any place near it's forecasted path.
That storm became Hurricane Sandy.
We were fortunate, others were not.
As I read the article, I saw that the tropics are easier to forecast than the northern & southern hemispheres.
More consistent temperatures etc
When they refer to 'forecasting' , I don't see them citing specific events (as Mike does here) but more of a focus on trends.
Weather forecasts are more than just - Rain tomorrow
3 week projections for specific events? No
3 week projections for trends ? Yes..... Hotter/Colder than normal, dryer/wetter.....
That type of weather prognostication
More consistent temperatures etc
When they refer to 'forecasting' , I don't see them citing specific events (as Mike does here) but more of a focus on trends.
Weather forecasts are more than just - Rain tomorrow
3 week projections for specific events? No
3 week projections for trends ? Yes..... Hotter/Colder than normal, dryer/wetter.....
That type of weather prognostication
torrential?
here in Veron, on the map not far from you, we had 2 days ago some good rain up and down during a few hours, nothing else.
such stuff is very isolated by area. like it rains for 2 rhs over one beach and the neighbourbeach is filled with sunbathing people withotu a drop.
that Vaguada is still incfluencing the DR today, but nobody could tell where exactly, how quick it moves or how long it stays when it goes near stationary.
weather trends are better/easier to forecast,
but those trends help zero when you want to know about the weather for tomorrow, to plan a family day out on a beach or such.
weather trends are not of any value to us ordinary folks, we wanna know if it rains or shines or wind blows tomorrow or next weekend.
here in Veron, on the map not far from you, we had 2 days ago some good rain up and down during a few hours, nothing else.
such stuff is very isolated by area. like it rains for 2 rhs over one beach and the neighbourbeach is filled with sunbathing people withotu a drop.
that Vaguada is still incfluencing the DR today, but nobody could tell where exactly, how quick it moves or how long it stays when it goes near stationary.
weather trends are better/easier to forecast,
but those trends help zero when you want to know about the weather for tomorrow, to plan a family day out on a beach or such.
weather trends are not of any value to us ordinary folks, we wanna know if it rains or shines or wind blows tomorrow or next weekend.
Cabrera has has strong storms daily around 5-6pm..... lots of rain/thunder
Mike -
Trends.... what will the weather be for my fishing charter 2 weeks from now..... good? Bad?
That sort of stuff, planning an outing or vacation
Mike -
Trends.... what will the weather be for my fishing charter 2 weeks from now..... good? Bad?
That sort of stuff, planning an outing or vacation
no, thats not trends, that would be a exact forecast for a specific area for a specific day,
and exactly that is impossible to do, usually even for the very next day impossible to forecast.
I could not tell now/today if it will be rain or shine or how much/little wind and waves for tomorrow morning's charter.
While nobody can 100% guarantee what your weather may be in 2 weeks, I will 100% guarantee that your fishing charter will not be impeded by snow or freezing temperatures.
the area of disturbed weather south of DR, teh one expected to form a storm in the western caribbean sea in a few days,
is blowing quiet some rainloads up over DR.
the last couple hours it was also pouring down over me here, with good thunder around.
Rubio, I guess you got also your share of it in Higuey, right?
as far as storms go, nothing in the make for us so far.
so here a shot from today's Sunset at Cap Cana.
is blowing quiet some rainloads up over DR.
the last couple hours it was also pouring down over me here, with good thunder around.
Rubio, I guess you got also your share of it in Higuey, right?
as far as storms go, nothing in the make for us so far.
so here a shot from today's Sunset at Cap Cana.
that forecast suits for minimum 340 days each year here, lol.
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it is just a Tropical Wave with a weak Surface Low attached. no organization nor thunderstorm activity visible.
the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sae have actually a fair strength of windshear blowing, 20-25Knots,
so this weak area of disturbed weather will not get a chance to develop under such conditions.
it will pass us on our south as a simple bad weather area, producing some clouds and rain, as we already have it on/off lately in some areas.
it is moving fast forward, 15mphr minimum, so the "bad" conditions should stay up til it has completely passed duing the next 3 days.
in general, the break is over and the Waves are on their move again and will find low pressure areas to mingle with.
for the coming 4 weeks we should see some more.
at this moment none is expected here towards our grounds
the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sae have actually a fair strength of windshear blowing, 20-25Knots,
so this weak area of disturbed weather will not get a chance to develop under such conditions.
it will pass us on our south as a simple bad weather area, producing some clouds and rain, as we already have it on/off lately in some areas.
it is moving fast forward, 15mphr minimum, so the "bad" conditions should stay up til it has completely passed duing the next 3 days.
in general, the break is over and the Waves are on their move again and will find low pressure areas to mingle with.
for the coming 4 weeks we should see some more.
at this moment none is expected here towards our grounds
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