a No Show for the Punta Cana Region.
we had this morning some insignificant rainfalls, no wind worth to mention,
it passed us very far South of PC. here the day will continue with clouds, some showers on/off, no wind above of what we have 100 times per year as a breeze.
it is centered S of Western DR, so the area San Pedro Westward should be in for a wild ride today, at least to be a close call.
Landfall can be awaited on the western end of the Haitian Peninsula.
it should blow quiet hefty from our Capital on Westwards, i don't know how heavy the waterloads are near the center there.
teh most trouble should be the usual rainfalls over our higher areas, as the rain cells of the storm get stuck at higher elevations and rain down a lot there then, as always.
the Track looks stable as NOAA showed it from the beginning,
so any hard core Hurricane Force will stay away from the Capital.
the strong windpower part, which is small on size, may brush the southern point of Barahona Peninsula,
but so far it looks like that is the worst to await.
as far as waters go, what ever it is bringing, it comes and goes fairly quick, running 30mphr forward speed is a huge relief.
the SE part with some winds and water will move upand over western DR after the storm passed,
but that's not anything mayor, it just could become heavy rain for some areas.
over all, for DR this thing looks good so far.
i am in PC up in Veron, once in a while some windgusts come through for a few minutes.
no more rain since a longer whle now, and anyways, not muchy had at all today.
will be on my way to Bavaro in a few, but don't expect anything different over there.
this system stayed even a bit further out than expected and dowgraded 2 days earlier than expected.
aside of some floodings at some areas vulnerable to any timeof the year rainfalls,
i don't think it had a significant impact on DR.
Heads Up!! 92L could be on its way!
From Stormcarib.com :
"92L is a very vigorous tropical wave that the NHC has been monitoring the last few days and has given it a 40% chance of development within the next 5 days while still over land. Forecast to move generally west under that same steering high pressure, it will be a thankful beneficiary of the wave in front of it's generosity, by soaking up that dry Saharan Dust and moistening the atmosphere ahead. With that moist atmosphere and low to moderate wind shear, this wave should develop as long as it stays generally west. This could setup up a collision with the Northern Antilles mid to late next week. Could. Not cast in stone.
Stay safe and prepared!
it is still over land, so uncertainty on any predictions, specially the steering, is very high.
conditions over most of our tropical highway are quiet good to favor development of storms,
but we have over the Easternmost part of the tropical atlantic quiet hefty windshear up.
that area of disturbed weather will hit atlantic waters most likely on sunday,**Addy: that was a quicky, full out and S of Cape Verde now**
it should still get a couple days of hefty windshear then for a start.
such windshear alone will not kill a disturbance, it could then develop later on when reaching the mid highway,
but it should take away some portions of the violent construction.
sure worth to take a look closer to mid week, all is possible.
I don't like much outlooks when the probabilities to fail are that high,
but my best bet at such Pre-Development Stage/on a disturbance not even over water,
is that the closer to the 10thN it hit's tropical atlantic waters, the more westward it will finally steer and the stronger it can/could become.
I would expect it to Center at least on the 12thN when S of the Cape Verde Island,
that would bring it steering patterns of a WNW Tracking and miss the Caribbean Sea no matter how strong or weak it survives the ride over the highway.
but again, outlooks on disturbances which are still over Land, are a full lottery game and leak of any accuracy.
a system needs to be active over water for some days, Then trends/awaited changes/movements can be calculated .
the other one mid highway is a no-show, it will not develop and it will not get steering winds towards the Caribbean.
this one moved over water/left land surprisingly quickly.
sure no defined center to mark at this stage, but it can beplaced/assumed at 11thN.
teh area is wide, actual steering should bring it for the next days on a WNW Tracking,
such tracking would make it miss the caribbean islands close to the NE of the Northermost Lesser Antilles.
we will see aht's out there once it passed the actual windshear, it should reach more favorable conditions in a couple days.