2021 Hurricane Season

MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Punta Cana/DR
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this shot is from 5AM DR/AST Time.
here it is already to be seen that the main portion is located further SW than forecasted,
this is due the usual "bounce back" effect when small/weak storms touch Land/specially land with high mountain ranges.
the red line is my own guess on where it should finally move to.
the point where it will leave the Island is of high uncertainty,
because this weak storm will go down significantly during it's time over land, so it can "curve" a lot before leaeving Hispaniola.
Screenshot (67)_LI.jpg
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,884
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
yeah, the DR SW will get more than the far East.
it looks like PC can take it as an other No Show, as so often is the case.
Fred lost already significant powers, as awaited.
such small system interacting with our home soil, that always leads to a beating for the storm, not for us.
once it's Center is over land, which should happen almost now as we speak, it will be down to a simple TD.
it is already spread out, a huge portion of the former circulation got cut off and wanders far south of DR in the caribbean sea.
I don't think that this Fred will take down power line poles,
such power outs are done by the electricity provider or by some stu.pids hitting such pole with their car, instead of staying one simple day of the year at home.
 
D

Dolores

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 20, 2019
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This is weird. It is 12 noon in Santo Domingo. The 11am advisory of the NHC says the storm is but 40 km south of the capital city. The skies are all blanket white, but there has been little rain so far in the city.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
NanSanPedro

NanSanPedro

Nickel with tin plating
Apr 12, 2019
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Boca Chica
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Dolores said:
This is weird. It is 12 noon in Santo Domingo. The 11am advisory of the NHC says the storm is but 40 km south of the capital city. The skies are all blanket white, but there has been little rain so far in the city.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Click to expand...
Wait for it Dolores, we're getting drenched in BC.
 
M

MariaRubia

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2019
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Dolores said:
This is weird. It is 12 noon in Santo Domingo. The 11am advisory of the NHC says the storm is but 40 km south of the capital city. The skies are all blanket white, but there has been little rain so far in the city.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Click to expand...

My friends in Santo Domingo Este say it is torrential rain there. First the Distrito Nacional gets the curfew lifted and SD Este doesn't, and now the DN gets all the good weather huh!!
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,884
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
it shoud be very close or even moving in for the Capital now/soon.
it shuld start from the eastern beach side and move towards the NW.
anyways, even shown as a strengthened TS Fred with 45mphr winds,
it is no more than a fleddered TD and I doubt that Las Americas will measure any sustained windspeeds over 30mphr.
strong rainfalls, yes, that is possible on it's way, but nothing else.
keep us all posted here from our different DR locations,
that's the great thing we have here, people who live at all different locations on the Island.
 
D

Dolores

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 20, 2019
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Stopped raining in Santo Domingo. Was a short-lasting storm for the capital city.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,884
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
and we have the next one on the Highway, well worth to watch from the beginning.
it is moving quick 20mphr, tracking would point on exact the same path as Fred had it in the caribbean sea.
conditions on the western highway are pretty good for storm development, as the last 3-4 waves cleared out most of dry air and there is so far no windshear awaited on the path for the next 3-5 days.
this one could move over the Leeward Island as a real Storm as early as this coming sunday Noon.
all is looking on unimportant Fred, but the good stuff is coming over on very fast forward speed and way better conditions.
this new Invest is a compact area, show's organized from the beginning and it show's a clear dominant Center from the beginning.
as opposed to what i said about weak and disorganized Fred, this show's potential to FORM.
forget some rain from today or tomorrow in the Capital,
i don't think it will get much time to dry up, before it will really get wet and interesting.
Tracking wise it is on the perfect Lane for a real Westward Runner on W-WWNW.
Screenshot (68).png
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,884
2,454
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
here is the Fred Positioning from 5PM EDT.
forget about the shown windfield, that does not exist anymore and did never exist of such size over land in DR.
it is still shown as a 40mphr TS Force with a 1007mb central pressure, that is False and can not be near the trueth.
former Fred is fleddered, spread out into harmless rain cells, barely worth to be named a TD6 again, far away from a TS.
if the low pressure center make's it all the way up to the NW to hit Atlantic Waters, there conditions are quiet in favor to bring it back alive as a real TD or even as a TS again. the wave carrying the remaints of the storm forward are a strong pushing force, it is very likely that it manage's to reach the otha side of the Isle.
that it got so heavily azz kicked is bad for areas vulnerable to flooding, because it will bring for many more hours rainfalls over many DR areas.
a compact storm would have been gone by now, but what got spread out/separated from the influence of the center, will now stay, move slowly or even stall out, and Rain Down.
those portions can be pushed slowly far from the actual center, it could produce more rain as far away as Punta Cana on the farest East, but such is impossible to estimate just by satellite watching, and i am not there to watch the skies myself.
 
CG

CG

Bronze
Sep 16, 2004
1,025
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Light rains in Las Terrenas - Perhaps some heavier water will come later tonight but basically NADA all day...
 
P

Pikobello

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2020
293
264
63
Santo Domingo
We got the full load of Fred in SD. Rainfall all night long and now 24 hours without power. I won't imagine when it becomes a real storm...
 
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