2021 Hurricane Season

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,350
1,589
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
this one should be a TS soon.
still not full organized, but on it's way to be so.
it show's a clear Center and should manage soon to organize the still spread out thunderstorm areas around the center.
I do not agree with the shown Tracking by the NHC
Screenshot (71).png

I see it Tracking more to the North like i try to show here:
Screenshot (72)_LI.jpg


difference to Fred:
Fred was clear that it may contain some TS force winds, but it was a weak system with no time to develop.
this one has good surrounding conditions and should be a real TS when closing in towards PR.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,350
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113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the 2 positive observations with TS Grace:
1) it keep's it's high forward speed, which make's a huge difference on Impact, and this one will Hit somewhere strongly.
2) the NHC adjusted the Tracking northwards, it would now Hit the SE corner of PR and cross PC completely, a very bad outlook for the neighbours who did not significantly fix the damages from the last double hurricane impact, yet.
I am confident that tarcking will go even a tad bit further North of the already northwards adjusted Tracking outlook of the NHC.
it moves super fast forward, so there is no time for huge changes or curves, this one will go it's way.
TS Grace is a real TS, a true storm formation, which is way more destructive/powerful than small and fleddered Fred was, no comparison between those.
the good thing for the caribben is, that it move's so fast forward, which slow's down development and does not leave much time for development.
otherwise, conditions on it's path are very good to favor quick development of a ful organized strom formation
with barely notable dry air in mid atmosphere and no bothering windshear anywhere near or on the predicted path.
to reach that ful organization, Grace would need more time/500 more miles before interaction with land/slower frward speed of 8-12mphr to get the job done.
none of that is present.
I have no info about how much water PR can take, but the SE and up to NE of PR shoud get ready for a grown ful Tropical Storm impact,
strong enough to pass SE-NW over the mountains without loosing organisation or TS powers for much time.
as for Impact on DR:
we have to get ready, as the NHC Tracking is bringing a Ful TS Force Grace over the Mona Channel straight into Punta Cana.
traditionally the Mona Channel is bad for a storm, they always loose a few notches on the short way over the channel.
but all conditions, like no dry saharan air, no windshear etc, are top to support a storm to keep it's powers or even increase a few tad bits.
on this high forward speed, from the moment it hit's Eastern PR to the moment the same center hit's PC, will be just a 61/2hrs time frame.
once it leave's PR to hit the channel til T-Time in Punta Cana/reaching the Cape at Cabo Engaño, will be just a quicky of less than 4hrs, maybe just31/2
so this time people have to decide to prepare or not before the real approaching powers are known.
Grace should be awaited a upper scale TS Force on impact in PR
and then again a upperscale TS Force on Impact in PC, the same powers as in 2004 TS Jeanne had(Jeanne was a Cat1 over PR and lost powers over the channel, hitting PC as a upper scale TS with the still existing "eye-area" right over PC.
PC is since then, after 17 years of development, way better built, way better prepared, but this Grace is on the edge where a storm could become dangerous.
My own Tracking is bringing Grace a tad bit further North, just scratching over the East of PR and missing PC by wandering more along our East Shores NWwards than coming on land, but the difference between those 2 scenarios is a very very small difference on ancle/tracking direction after Impact with PR, so we should expect the harsh walk over PC,just to stay on the safest possible side of Island life.

Screenshot (75)_LI.jpg
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,350
1,589
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Tracking adjusted,
but not to the North, it is further South.
with the start of interatcion with the Leeward Islands, TS Grace did stop the NW movement and moved the last hours straight West.
due that the further tracking will bring it on a almost exact Trackof former TS Fred, a bit further W of the Fred Landfall location.
we should expect the same areas to get bothered, but this one is more compact/organized, it moves mre powers, a small but real windfield.
the good notice is that TS GRace is speeding forward even faster now, well over 20mphr.
there will not be a landfall in PR nor shuld PC be bothered,
but the DR-SW could be in for a wild ride, TS Force in or near our Capital looks very likely.
as usual, for the exact track we have to wait until it passed the Leewards,
but this one is stronger than Fred and it will not get knocked due missing interaction with PR,
it should walk it's track without any down grade, could even drop some mb of central pressure and intensify
there is no dry air nor any bothering windshear on it's path.
Grace is managing a way wider area of rainbands than Fred did, so we shoud expect more/further away areas to get strong rainfalls.
let it continue to speed up to let it pass as quick as ever possible, as Fred already saturated some areas.
the quicker the pass the less the waterloads to come down.
tomorrow evening we can await DR to start to get wet.
Screenshot (76).png

watch out for the Windfield, which is extending only towards the northern areas off the Center.
Important:
this TS will not be on a decrease of powers and arrive as a weakening TD,
this one wehave to await asa strong TS Force not going down until it is already over land since a while,
also likely not to get down back to TD force at all on the short and wuikc pass over Hispaniola soil.
just a tad bit further S of the actually shown tracking and the Quake struck area in Haiti will get the full load on top of the already misery.
 
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Riva_31

Bronze
Apr 1, 2013
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San Pedro de Macoris
Tracking adjusted,
but not to the North, it is further South.
with the start of interatcion with the Leeward Islands, TS Grace did stop the NW movement and moved the last hours straight West.
due that the further tracking will bring it on a almost exact Trackof former TS Fred, a bit further W of the Fred Landfall location.
we should expect the same areas to get bothered, but this one is more compact/organized, it moves mre powers, a small but real windfield.
the good notice is that TS GRace is speeding forward even faster now, well over 20mphr.
there will not be a landfall in PR nor shuld PC be bothered,
but the DR-SW could be in for a wild ride, TS Force in or near our Capital looks very likely.
as usual, for the exact track we have to wait until it passed the Leewards,
but this one is stronger than Fred and it will not get knocked due missing interaction with PR,
it should walk it's track without any down grade, could even drop some mb of central pressure and intensify
there is no dry air nor any bothering windshear on it's path.
Grace is managing a way wider area of rainbands than Fred did, so we shoud expect more/further away areas to get strong rainfalls.
let it continue to speed up to let it pass as quick as ever possible, as Fred already saturated some areas.
the quicker the pass the less the waterloads to come down.
tomorrow evening we can await DR to start to get wet.
View attachment 4761
watch out for the Windfield, which is extending only towards the northern areas off the Center.
Important:
this TS will not be on a decrease of powers and arrive as a weakening TD,
this one wehave to await asa strong TS Force not going down until it is already over land since a while,
also likely not to get down back to TD force at all on the short and wuikc pass over Hispaniola soil.
just a tad bit further S of the actually shown tracking and the Quake struck area in Haiti will get the full load on top of the already misery.
I was watching 8:00 pm report and said very dificult become in hurrican but the north side of the storm has most of the rain, do we should be ready for flooding.
 
Feb 7, 2007
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I see the latest update had adjusted its tracking again further north, now crossing straight through Isla Saona - Higüey
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,350
1,589
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
now, that the storm passed the Lesser Antilles,
it's positioning and tracking is forecasted exact where Fred went along,
pointing to a landfall around La Romana.
I would await the usual change, as also seen with Fred, that the closing in to PR from the South will bounce it a tad bit back from that tracking
to finally stay a bit further South and make Landfall a bit more West on our DR Southshores.
there will at the end not be much, if any, difference to the path of Fred.
as awaited, TS Grace did not suffer much from it's first land-contact, it is a full grown TS.
the closer it will pass PR, the more disorganized it will get and the more it will finally move to the West for a DR approach.
under the line:
and other time frame to stay at home and enjoy the home sweeties while there may be shi.tty weather outside.
def to abandon areas around rivers/vulnerable to floodings.
smart people stay at home and no harm will be done.
as oppesed to my first week here in Germany with freezing temps of just 19-21C,
now we have hot 30C since a couple days already,
so it is time to close the computer and ride the 10 minutes over to my sister's house, where we have a nice big pool with atatched beer cooler and wine selection, jjjj.
be smart, stay at home, stay dry.
or pass by here, everybody is welcome to join today's sunday pool bbq
 

windeguy

Platinum
Jul 10, 2004
36,284
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How often do you see a tropical storm with the NHC predicting such a straight path from the south coast of PR, to Santo Domingo, straight through the south of the DR into Haiti, exit Haiti and ride the north coast of Cuba and into the Gulf.
 

PCMike

Active member
Aug 30, 2008
200
76
28
When is the last time all this artsy fartsy graphic BS was accurate within 12 hours? Time to stop with this scare-mongering. The only thing it does is puts people into a frenzy like at noon today at Jumbo. I follow all of this as much as my buddy Mike, analysis,,, break down...all that shit. but he should accept, as I have, that most of it is totally inaccurate for the east of the Dominican Republic...other parts can chime in. Looking at this is like looking at Covid scare tactics.
 

windeguy

Platinum
Jul 10, 2004
36,284
2,711
113
When is the last time all this artsy fartsy graphic BS was accurate within 12 hours? Time to stop with this scare-mongering. The only thing it does is puts people into a frenzy like at noon today at Jumbo. I follow all of this as much as my buddy Mike, analysis,,, break down...all that shit. but he should accept, as I have, that most of it is totally inaccurate for the east of the Dominican Republic...other parts can chime in. Looking at this is like looking at Covid scare tactics.
I have followed the NHC graphs and predictions since I moved to the DR in 2003. I find nothing to complain about them.
But then, I live on the north coast in Cabarete where a hurricane has never directly hit. Not ever.

Stay dry.
 

XTraveller

Active member
Aug 21, 2010
353
155
43
When is the last time all this artsy fartsy graphic BS was accurate within 12 hours? Time to stop with this scare-mongering. The only thing it does is puts people into a frenzy like at noon today at Jumbo. I follow all of this as much as my buddy Mike, analysis,,, break down...all that shit. but he should accept, as I have, that most of it is totally inaccurate for the east of the Dominican Republic...other parts can chime in. Looking at this is like looking at Covid scare tactics.
Mikefisher as very good track record interpreting this stuff and I appreciate I could prepare ahead of time.
Thanks Mikefisher!
 

william webster

Platinum
Jan 16, 2009
26,601
2,141
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Well Mike.... we all have our opinions

Call Windy if you need a snorkel for this one.... lots of rain they say.....
When exactly - who cares !!??
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,350
1,589
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
all will be fine.
TS Grace is falling apart, went into 2 pieces already.
one is way south in the caribben sea moved forward by the same tropical wave as the pushing forward engine, but without a center.
the "center", which is now no more than a small area of lower surface pressure, is pushing way south of PC towards the West.
I don't see it to become a storm again, we can see it now as a frontal, a heavy weather area.
such can bring some rain and winds, but both not on any danger scales.
an other no show.
I am surprised tht it went down that quick, specially as it did not come too close to PR, there is no significant amount of dry air in the mid atmosphere anywhere near and there is no windshear present anywhere all over the caribbean sea at the moment/since a while.
but such can happen, in this case, it is good when such happens.
it always bothers myself when i can not figure out the reason for any happening, but it is what it is, this one is gone as a storm.
Screenshot (77).png

the remaints will most likely wander simple Westward, some rainbands of it's north may pass over DR soil, but nothing to write home about.
 
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