We may be half way to the end of the season but still a long way to go until the end of November. Another disturbance is forecast to come off Africa in the next few days. From now until the end despite having been fortunate (lucky) so far, at least one of the future storms this season is more than likely to have our name on it. Fingers crossed.
yeah, but that's a stat for the overall Basin.
as for the DR we are now in PEAK Season, the next 3 weeks are the timewhen we get the most/strongest etc close in's.
anyways, so far all looks fine, aside of the usual same ones getting drowned after each rainfall, nothing happened so far.
Mike what are your thoughts on disturbance 2, the new one which the NHC is saying has a 70% chance of forming. I know it's early but the model on Windy.com is showing this one being very big and coming close to the north coast.
those did not have passed the Cape Verde Islands and did not form up a storm, yet,
so it is way too early to guess.
next week we should be able to get an idea about tracking of what ever may form up out of those cloudy areas.
let's see what the direction looks like after a Storm formed, which coud hapen by Friday.
the over all guess by location/size of disturbance/heading powers i would "guess" it towards the Nothern Leeward Islands.
but impossible to tell before a Storm/Center is really there to watch.
while the "Map" may look scary to some,
there is absolutely nothing out there that could be considered any danger for DR.
TS Peter will miss the Island far out,
TD17 is moving Northwards.
for the next "Dot on the Map", that Disturbance is still over Land over Western Africa and has first to form a Storm, before speculations can start about anything.
so far, at this moment, absolutely nothing bad in sight
as for steering patterns,
this one could be, sincea long while, the first on it's way towards the Caribbean.
it does not look bi, but good constructed, so we will see what it looks like once formed.
it should get it's TD Number today/any moment.
Most of the Spaghetti Models seem to suggest that this one is going to bend out to sea. Fingers crossed that they are right, looks like it's going to be a big one. I do think we have all had a rough year and should be excused hurricane duty for 2021.
TD18 is a compact system, those can grow wind powers very quick.
conditions for this weekend and early next week are on the favorable side with low windshear and nonsignificant dry air masses,
so this should becomethe next Mayo Storm for the Statistics.
and that's all what it should become, an other one for the Stats/Numbers of powerful storms of the season.
by positioning and shifting of the Atlantic High, the steering pattern pointeven steeper NW-NNW than it already was the case with TS Peter,
so while it will very likely become a "Big One", it will surenot visit the Caribbean and never become aconcern for DR.
as said before, the map will stay colorful with many "Dots" for this season's peak time weeks,
but Heading Patterns will actually not bring anything towards our Island Paradise.
All is fine,the Cattle can stay out and enjoy their green pastures.
From the NHC :
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several
days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next
several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning
and could become a major hurricane by Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
Mayor Hurricane Sam is tracking WNW on 7Knots forward speed since a while.
Bermuda better get ready.
it's powers should bring quiet some Surf towards the DR North, Samana and East Shores,
but that's it.
It should stay as far away from PC as Havanna/Cuba is away from PC.