2021 Hurricane Season

NanSanPedro

Nickel with tin plating
Apr 12, 2019
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If I am interpreting this graph correctly, today is hump day for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. The average number starts to decrease.

Click Here.
 
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Cdn_Gringo

Gold
Apr 29, 2014
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We may be half way to the end of the season but still a long way to go until the end of November. Another disturbance is forecast to come off Africa in the next few days. From now until the end despite having been fortunate (lucky) so far, at least one of the future storms this season is more than likely to have our name on it. Fingers crossed.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Punta Cana/DR
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If I am interpreting this graph correctly, today is hump day for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. The average number starts to decrease.

Click Here.
yeah, but that's a stat for the overall Basin.
as for the DR we are now in PEAK Season, the next 3 weeks are the timewhen we get the most/strongest etc close in's.
anyways, so far all looks fine, aside of the usual same ones getting drowned after each rainfall, nothing happened so far.
 
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MariaRubia

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2019
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Mike what are your thoughts on disturbance 2, the new one which the NHC is saying has a 70% chance of forming. I know it's early but the model on Windy.com is showing this one being very big and coming close to the north coast.
 

Cdn_Gringo

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Apr 29, 2014
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Another tropical disturbance is expected to come off Africa in the next few days, so we'll have two to watch.
 

MariaRubia

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2019
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Any thoughts on the new one which is starting to cross the Atlantic. NHC is showing it coming our way with an 80% chance of formation in the next couple of days.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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let's see what the direction looks like after a Storm formed, which coud hapen by Friday.
the over all guess by location/size of disturbance/heading powers i would "guess" it towards the Nothern Leeward Islands.
but impossible to tell before a Storm/Center is really there to watch.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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while the "Map" may look scary to some,
there is absolutely nothing out there that could be considered any danger for DR.
TS Peter will miss the Island far out,
TD17 is moving Northwards.
for the next "Dot on the Map", that Disturbance is still over Land over Western Africa and has first to form a Storm, before speculations can start about anything.
so far, at this moment, absolutely nothing bad in sight
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,361
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
as for steering patterns,
this one could be, sincea long while, the first on it's way towards the Caribbean.
it does not look bi, but good constructed, so we will see what it looks like once formed.
it should get it's TD Number today/any moment.
Screenshot (86).png
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,361
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
TD18 is a compact system, those can grow wind powers very quick.
conditions for this weekend and early next week are on the favorable side with low windshear and nonsignificant dry air masses,
so this should becomethe next Mayo Storm for the Statistics.
and that's all what it should become, an other one for the Stats/Numbers of powerful storms of the season.
by positioning and shifting of the Atlantic High, the steering pattern pointeven steeper NW-NNW than it already was the case with TS Peter,
so while it will very likely become a "Big One", it will surenot visit the Caribbean and never become aconcern for DR.
as said before, the map will stay colorful with many "Dots" for this season's peak time weeks,
but Heading Patterns will actually not bring anything towards our Island Paradise.
All is fine,the Cattle can stay out and enjoy their green pastures.
 

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
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From the NHC :
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several
days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next
several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning
and could become a major hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Need to watch this one I think!

Olly
 

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
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SAM ??? It is still tracking West not North West and the turn seems less likely. The models can predict an estimate of the track but SAM does not seem to know that!

Watch this one.
Olly
 

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
1,781
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Hi Mike, You might want to check the track. Sam is 14.2 N at present so a very slow change from earlier today.

Olly