2021 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

yes, it was a full desaster, including some late warnings AND at regions Ignored warnings.
Germany is absolutely not used to such, nobody took it really serious by the warnings, here always everybody feels completely safe of such happenings.
now everybody know's better.
this desaster killed more people tahn any hurricane did in a very long time.

 

[william webster]

They need to have you predict the weather !!!!

Fisherman the Weatherman !

An other job for you !

 

[MikeFisher]

hahaha.
naaa, that crazy weather here, and in such huge region, would be a completely new science to me.
in comparison our Tropical Region Storms are easy stuff to stay up with.

 

[Olly]

There is a lot going on in the Atlantic Basin - Three Invests 92L, 93L, and 94L and two with potential development through the Caribbean.

Keep a watch !

Olly

 

[MikeFisher]

it was til ysterday 3 Invests on the Highway lined up one behind the other,
but development/danger potential been very low.
the easternmost one is gine since yesterday Noon already.
the middle one, now around 1000 miles east of the Antiles, has near zero chance to develop, sure not into anything big.
the one wandering over the Lesser Antilles tonight, has some chances to become a TD, but it is not very likely.
it def will notdo a quick development stage to become anything powerful.
as usual, all areasin the path of such system have to be aware of approaching water loads,
the usual threat for vulnerable areas inthe mountains and along the rivers.
but so far all looks fine, the cattle can continue to enjoy their green pastures outdoors.
the point to look on the closest Invest is tonight, when it passed the Lesser Antilles,
that's when for certain can be told if there will be a little storm or just a tropical wave moving nearby.
either way the only possible threat could come from water/rainfalls for our well known specific areas.

 

[william webster]

Thanks Mike.... no need to fire up the 'hot line' yet I guess!!

 

[MikeFisher]

Thanks Mike.... no need to fire up the 'hot line' yet I guess!!

exactly.
just this evening (when i am already asleep on this side of the big pond)
keep looking how that Invest looks when it has passed the baby islands belt.
I hope the weather forecasts here in germany are better than those american apps which try to forecast our DR weather,
because starting this coming wednesday they promise finally nice summer weather.
til now, already here since a week, it is freezing 21C with a fresh breeze and mostly cloudy skies.
not something a Islander would name "Summer Time", lol.
the pool here is still on cold 23C, too fresh for this Fisherman.
the automatic heating is running on solar panels, but the mostly very cloudy skies so far hinder that it warms on comfy/wished for 27C Pool Temps.
there is hope for wednesday and ahead.
but those freezing conditions could not forbid to fire up the smoker for some good basic alimentation, hehe

that was yesterday's dinner for 4.
the nice thing here is, that you have sunlight til late evening, not the early sun sets as we have them on the Island.

 

[william webster]

Looks great !!

 

[bienamor]

Thanks for the weather update Mike.

 

[MikeFisher]

the one at the Lesser Antilles has now better chances to become a TD.
but as usual, we have to wait whats there once it passed over the lil Islands.

 

[MikeFisher]

now we have to watch closely in what shape the TD/TS enter's the Caribbean Sea tonight.

REMNANTS OF TWENTY-ONE

 

[MikeFisher]

this storm does not show much of a well defined center.
while i would say that portions may reach TS Force windspead already, there is no TS Force windfield to spot.
it is a wide heavy weather area trying to develop, i don't see much of development to happen the next 24hrs
and then it will already be in full interaction with our Island, which will not allow furtehr grow ups til it already left our territory.
areas vulnerable to flooding have to take theirprecautions orleave their area, as usual under any possible strong rainfalls.
this will not be a full grown up storm blowing stuff around with heavy winds.
it will be more one of those lazy days to stay at home, watch some movies with the kids or make the ole house dragon happy.
on this link/loop you can watch it's approach best:

GOES-East - Sector view: Puerto Rico - Band 8 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

the NOAA tracking forecast looks perfectly good with the usual uncertainty that interaction with the S of PR first and then approaching Hispaniola from the SE to the NW, very likely can push the pass a bit further S of our DR SE corner,
but in general we can take the shown tracking as a 95%+ accurate thing to await.

 

[MikeFisher]

still hard to mark a real center, even taht some us-news on TV show a TS Fred.
the NHC show's on their just now 11:00AM update a weakening TD6
and that is the same i see myself on the maps/
today so far central pressure been rising by 2mb, the forward speed is rising, too,
both clear indicators that there is no danger of a growing storm or such.
it is a wide area of shi.tty weather conditions, some small areas could reach TS Force winds, that's it.
Tracking I see a bit further South now, passing S of Saona Island and getting some beach time somewhere between La Roamana and Santo Domingo then.
such could even jump an other few dots southwards on the 5PM up date later on.
bring your lightweight furnichure in, do not plan camping on a river bed before thursday, and all will be fine.

 

[MikeFisher]

now the Center is visible on Sat shots and a ciculation is seen.
it should be named soon/this evening, I would say TS Fred is born.
it also is very close to the point where interaction with PR will start, so this system has no time nor the needed space to grow up/gain forces.
this looks like a weak TS coming in on our DR South anywhere between the SE/Saona Island and the Capital, most likely around the La Romana area.
it is not a wind threat and it is nothing mayor on waterloads,
but it is sufficient to flood the known vulnerable areas.
who stay's smart and at home will not have the slightest troubles.
it's forward speed been all day constantly 15+Knots, so it will be a quick in and out, nothing lasting for long, which should keep waterload damages down, too.

 

[CristoRey]

Good amount of rain here in Santiago now.

 

[franco1111]

The first bands of clouds and the breeze are arriving now in Punta Cana.

 

[MikeFisher]

TS Fred is approaching Land now, should be over Land in a couple hrs and loose a significant part of powers quickly then for it's time over land.
the very small windfield with TS Force winds extends almost only ro it's NE and just a few miles off the small center.
Landfall will be between Yuma and La Romana.
so the windfield should not touch Punta Cana, but may reach Higuey.
it is moving forward on around 15Knots, a quick in and out.
unless near rivers or mudslide prone areas, this will not be a dangerous event for smart people who simply spend today at home.
take the line of tracking shown on the NHC forecast tracking map,
so if you ive on that line or a bit north of it, then def keep all your stuff and of course yourself and family IN your HOME.
it is just for some hours, everything after will just be shitty raiy/maybe still windy weather conditions for the rest of the day.
tomorrow morning people will be out playing their towel game fr beach chairs an getting those unhealthy tanning/burning lines again, as if nothing happened.
just in case someone needs some calm sunshine conditions,
those are HERE, at my place in Germany, with zero wind, very light cloud pieces, a nice sunny 25C Wednesday.
it is 12:30PM here now and i get ready for a stroll through the center of the neighboured city.
stay smart/safe everyone.

 

[LindseyKaufman]

Here in the mountains of Jamao, we had strong periods of rain throughout the night and again in the early morning hours, then accompanied by thunder and a little lightening. Currently the skies are partly cloudy but I can see cloud formations and lighter areas in the sky. No rain right now and no winds.

We have a morning camp planned in a remote community about 45 minutes away, off road. Big decision whether to cancel or try to make a go of it.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

After a pause in the intermittent overnight rain, it has just started to rain again here in Sosua. No significant wind but I can hear thunder in the distance. Sky looks completely clouded over to the east. Puerto Plata province is under a yellow alert for potential flooding issued by C.O.E.

 

[MikeFisher]

to me it goes as assumed, since interaction with PR and specially now with DR,
that the main portion will stay way further SW than formerly shown on the maps.
here you can follow the cloud covers and ran/wind cells almost live, the last shot on the loop is usually just 10-20 minutes old.
just do not forget to REFRESH the page when you take a new look, or your browser would show you the former old loop, lol.
the time is shown on the bottom of the loop.

GOES-East - Sector view: Puerto Rico - Band 8 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov