2022 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Now, that detailed Data about the system is collected, it looks bad for my BD BBQ on Sunday.
TD7 is there and should be a TS in no time, today/tonight.
It is running a straight Westward Tracking, pointing towards Punta Cana.
On very most occasions, such Tracking then brushes along our South, missing PC by a bit and heading WNW over Land somewhere on our SW of DR, like the Capital/Barahona/Haitian Peninsula.
 

MiamiDRGuy

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It wont look pretty for some areas in DR that will have flood issues. Be preapred.
 

MikeFisher

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Since the 5PM update it shows as a straight on our SE and then cross Island towards the NW.
But such would be very rare, they always do their move once touch PR and then feeling DR.
By Saturday we will get the idea.
It will not be anything big, but 45mphr right above the roof is enough to decide on a Sunday drinking at home and just in case the beer fridge and the Planta's gasoline tank filled up.
Flooding is for certain areas always the big trouble, this will also be the case on this one here.
More or less windspeed does not matter, the water coming down is decided by how fast it comes in and moves out.
since this morning it slowed down only by a couple mphr forward speed, that does not have to mean anything, as it always goes a bit up and down.
Important is that it is not getting slowed down on forward speed too much by PR and coming in over here on Turtle Speed, that would be fatal for floodings.
 

MikeFisher

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TS Fiona is out there and steaming west.
It dropped pressure and rises powers. the stronger the better it would be able to move WNW-wards against the straight West line of the near Atlantic High lingering just N of the storm/Leewards/PR.
Gaining some more powers it could steer WNW before arriving in DR, with actual powers it will not manage that and follow the barrier of the High on it's North,
that would mean it stays Westward Tracking until right off the South Shores of PR, then turn up following that line of the High, quiet straight towards the E of DR.
BUT, we have to wait for any moves once feeling PR,
but so far it looks like this one will come very close or right over the East.
Light Saharan Sand presence and medium Windshear should hinder a quick strong growing,
but they look not strong enough to knock it down.
Our best bet for getting it knocked down is a heavy touch with PR's mountains.
Forward Speed is rising this evening, so the winds ahead of the storm we could feel on the East Shores here already mid Saturday morning.
All that can change in a heart beat, we have to watch it for changes all the time.
 

MikeFisher

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The Atlantic High's southern border retreated a nice piece northwards,
so I am pretty sure that Fiona will turn NW-tracking before reaching the Mona Channel,
bothering itself with PR Mountains and stay away from most of DR.
we will see if that happens during the next 24hrs,which is the timeline as I see it coming.
The TS windfield will then be close t the DR East Shores may or may not be felt strong or not,
the same for the NE of DR, but not a walk over any DR soil, not blowing away anything in DR.
Wave action most likely will be felt all along the East up to Samana Bay,
Rainfalls over DR will be limited or not really happening any strong at all, as I expect us to be on the SW Corner of the small storm.
As it did not turn at all, yet, and such turn is just my own best guess for it, at this time no idea how far towards DR rain clouds will reach.
By tomorrow morning we should see if I have the right idea in mind or not,
but for now I do not see any contact between the Fiona Center Piece and DR Land.
 

JD Jones

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I think we and PR are going to have a wet Saturday night.
 

MikeFisher

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I think we and PR are going to have a wet Saturday night.
for Puerto Rico starting Saturday afternoon and until Sunday evening.
For DR not so sure so far, I still see it
1) weakening along PR
2) following the outmoving border of the Atlantic High, turning NW over Western Puerto Rico, not touch DR, we would stay on it's western side and just get maybe wet from it's NW Corner here on the SE and then also Samana and surroundings, maybe.
But we will not know before it's interaction with PR.
Then we see how much it weakens and where exactly the Turning Point to move NWwards will be located.
20-30 miles of a difference of that point make a difference from a washout on the East to a stay totally dry with just some clouds and few short rainfalls.
I don't think it will reach 68Degrees Longitude before it already passed N of Cabo Engaño.
Again, all uncertain long range outlooks as long as not in interaction with PR.
 
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MikeFisher

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Forget all prior tracking assumptions, it starts all over again, lol.
The Center location "jumped", so the Storm can be put a bit more South and wandering straight West.
I add here at the end the link to the Live Floater/Sat Coverage direct over TS Fiona.
This is far not a well built Storm, the Center wanders almost alone with little action nearby, most rain and thunderstorm activity is happening away from the center.
Dry Saharan Air on it's path is little, Windshear only in the medium range of around 25Knots, nothing mayor,
But together with Land Interaction 25-30Knots Windshear could become a destroying factor to knock it down.
We will see if touch the Leeward Islands will show first effects.
If it stays too long that South it's interaction with PR will be not as much as I prior hoped for and it is then also further from the Windshear.
It's Turn NWwards will happen anyways, no matter powers and/or North/South positioning, as that is primarily decided by the High Pressure Ridge North of the Greater Antilles.
So by the Actual new position it would pass S of the Mona Passage before starting the turn NWwards.
Again, such weak system is very vulnerable and tracking can change a lot within a short time period, as it will react to smallest touches or changes of conditions.
I don't like this actual Southern Line, as it is promising a lot of water for our Island on such path, the bad kinda water amounts.
This will be a very interesting weekend for weather watching.
Here is the link to the Floater over Fiona:
 

MariaRubia

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"Eastern Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches possible" (from the NHC page)

16 inches geez. That's a lot of water people. I'm hoping that Hato Mayor doesn't get pounded again, I remember those scenes of devastation from last year (or was it the year before).
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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yeah, passing near south of Mina Passage to come on Land somewhere South,
that would bring the max water load.
Just purchased a few days ago 2 solar systems for the Ranch, still not all pieces delivered, they will be mounted during the next few weeks.
My little construction site will proof now how good it is built or where i need to deroute rivers or if I need to tie up a emergency Dingy behind the hut for the next rainfalls to come.
 
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MiamiDRGuy

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Looks like its going to hit SD likely by Monday if path kept that way. It'll be awful for SD, lots of flooding and power problems. Let's see what happens on Sunday.
 
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JD Jones

Moderator - Covid 19 in DR & North Coast
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I've got cats and dogs coming down at the moment here in San Cristobal.
 

reilleyp

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I've got cats and dogs coming down at the moment here in San Cristobal.
I was surprised to read this. When I checked the satellite image, it almost looks like a different system however I am no meteorologist.
 
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