2023 Hurricane Season

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pularvik

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Jan 2, 2011
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Hey Mike, you still there? You are my go to guy! I’m not sure I like these 7 day forecasts, more time to angst. But, as you said , they are looking pretty accurate, at least in predicting something that is not even there.
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Yes, they are a new thing we have to get used to it.
As far as AL95 goes, no 7 days forecast necessary, by now the system is within good old times forecast time frame reach, lol.
It will be "numbered" or more likely right away "named" today, as on Sat it shows all characteristics necessary to be seen as a Tropical Cyclone.
Our Tropical Highway did not have the time to get significant Dry Air Layers built back up, there is very little of that out there and AL95 and then the following system right now approaching the Cabo Verde Islands, they will clean up the pavement again completely, I guess.
So conditions for storm development are out off our East on the Tropical Highway very favourable for storm development.
Means the systems, once organized, get their upgrades to TD/TS/Cat1 in very short time frames.
In case of AL95, Tracking is in our favour, there is no strog High Pressure Ridge to the North of our Highway to force a storm to stay south and track straight Westward, it should track the typical WNWwards heading, and that would make it a close call for the northernmost Island of the Island belt, but more likely miss the Leeward Islands on their NE.
For Tracking further out, well that's impossible to assume on that long ahead of time, for that we have to wait until the Cyclone is up named and running since a while, to see the trend of the system.
We have no wind shear in it's way, no significant SAL, perfectly hot Tropical Sea Surface Temps,
so we will very likely see the next Hurricane on the Map long before the weekend.
We need to watch this one, as so far out the directions can change, of course.
The next one behind, approaching the Cabo Verde Islands, should also pendle in on a WNWward tracking, so for now we are safe from that formation, which is also running very good development conditions for several days.
Unimportant for us Islanders, but maybe interesting to some on the bord,
Ex-Franklin is still alive and shaking and it's remaints could reach as far as Western Europe/Portugal.
Quiet some weird stuff shown out there this season.
As for asking if I am still here,
Yes, I am here, but a bit low key, as I could a darn flue, so I am switching locations between feeding my cows and resting in bed a bit, lol.
But I am always here.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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And wuuush, here we go.
As promised, what ever pops up, will develop in no time and gain good forces.
By now, we will see a Mayor Category Hurricane passing close NE and N of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico and DR this weekend.
So we will have to monitor permanently it's ongoing, specially any changes on Tracking.


Screenshot 2023-09-05 115517.png
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Mike just fyi, I'm planning on being in PC this weekend. Please keep it away.

There's an extra 100 peso propina in it for you!!

Thanks,

Rob
That's what each piece of my cattle eats per hours, 24/7, plus their lil extras, lol, so that 100 pesos teaser will not work, haha.
So far, as a long range outlook, it looks fine from my point of view as a Vaquero,
as, if lucky, it will bring some nice rain down, which is always very welcome.
Hey, I live up on my lil hill over PC, it rains quiet often up here while down in PC just a few miles away by air, it stays dry.
So we can both have our perfect weekend, you baking in the sun and me working happy and comfy in the wet, lol.
Deal.
Would you prefer Scotiabank or Popular or one of the Intl Banks in Euro or US$ for the Propina?
We will have a great weekend nonetheless.
 
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MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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TS Lee continues it's prior forecasted path and is building strong Thunderstorm areas around the center area,
means it is building an eyewall and will be named a Hurricane any moment from now.
Conditions continue full supportive for quick intensifications, at this moment without any upper limit,
so we will see a Mayor Hurricane well before it is close to the Leeward Islands and a full force running and growing Mayor Hurricane when passing N of PR and Hispañola.
Such machine will bring strong wave action well ahead of reaching its closest point to any given area, so if you live on a beach area, do not get fooled by "arrival times of winds etc", the Surf will already be out of control many many hours before.
While it is too early to tell exact direction, distance to land, final impact force of the surf,
at this moment we have to expect it to be very hard for the E and N shores of PR and the E and N shores of DR.
At this moment I do not await that we will feel any wind forces, but such can not def be told before the full running machine of a strong Hurricane is up and it's windfield will be seen on Sat shots. And keep always in mind that we are still on a long range outlook, so everything including Tracking, could change significantly, for the better or the far worst, either way possible.
The same goes for rain falls, at this point I can not guess on which sides of the storm will carry the most and how much those would be or if we get anything more than what we would appreciate here on the Campo as a welcome amount.
We keep watching the updates every 6hrs and hope for the best, as this one will grow fast and big,
mother nature has so far zero conditions forecasted on it's way that could bother the storm on it's progress.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Hurricane Lee is perfectly formed and has all needed fuels available to keep intensifying to the max possible by any storm.
We will see it's forced on the scale of a Mayor Hurricane in just a little bit today and those forces still will continue to rise then.
The good thing at this moment is the tracking, it is awaited to stay nice far North of us,
so winds and heaviest rainfalls should stay away from us, with very hard Surf Conditions to be expected all along our East and North Shores as the "only" threat.
We keep watching, of course, but as strong and bad this thing will be, it looks like we are the lucky ones to not get kicked hard by it.
 

NanSanPedro

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Apr 12, 2019
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Hurricane Lee is perfectly formed and has all needed fuels available to keep intensifying to the max possible by any storm.
We will see it's forced on the scale of a Mayor Hurricane in just a little bit today and those forces still will continue to rise then.
The good thing at this moment is the tracking, it is awaited to stay nice far North of us,
so winds and heaviest rainfalls should stay away from us, with very hard Surf Conditions to be expected all along our East and North Shores as the "only" threat.
We keep watching, of course, but as strong and bad this thing will be, it looks like we are the lucky ones to not get kicked hard by it.
Looks like you're gonna get those 100 pesos!!
 
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reilleyp

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Dec 12, 2006
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I am glad that it is heading north of the DR, but I am not liking the path that windy.com is putting this thing on late next week.
 

MiamiDRGuy

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May 19, 2013
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Hurricane Lee will be the massive storm ever since Hurricane Maria. its sitting 145mph and it'll grow to 160mph by tonight and possible 180mph tommorrow.
 
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