2023 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

We have nothing bad in sight of our Island and nothing awaited to form up for the next days.
While the Tropical Atlantic Waters still show a high enough Sea Surface Temperature to form storms,
at this moment dry air and specially very high wind shear over most of the highway would not allow development.
It continues to look like our hefty season is done early, but we still do not call it off completely.

Have a great Sunday everyone

 

[william webster]

Thanks Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

A little up date, so nobody thinks our stormy weather isn't monitored anymore, lol.
I Would have dared to call it a day for this season after the first week of November already, and for our Tropical Highway it is, since.
But,
the Caribbean Sea offers still a very warm sea surface, no dry air in the mid atmosphere and no significant wind shear over the SW Caribbean Sea.
Hence since several days NOAA is forecasting a high probability for a Surface Low to form in that area this week.
Traditionally, what forms there moves on over Central America, Yucatan, Cuba, the Gulf of Mexico, but not at this part of November 2023.
Steering Currents are non existent, as we have High Pressure Ridges to the N and H/L Frontal Areas to the N and W,
so what ever pops up there, at this moment and since over a week would be trapped, has no way Out,
a Disturbance/Storm there would stay around and just slowly drift into Northern and NorthEastern Directions, which could bring Us into the game.
So we keep this 2023 Hurricane Season Topic open til next weekend, after that by actual patterns I don't think more formations will come up this season.
We shall see what it looks like next sunday.

Have a beautiful Sunday everyone.

 

[MikeFisher]

Surface pressure declining and moisture is concentrating at the NW Corner of the SWern Caribbean Sea.
This looks like a Baby Storm by Thursday and it's development should be slow, as we have now wind shear over most of the Caribbean Sea.
Awaited Tracking is the same I mentioned on Sunday, NE directions towards Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti.
This is close enough to DR to make it worth to watch this Disturbance.
Aside of this lil nothing, we have zero stormy movements anywhere out there,
so I hope we continue here at my place with nice sunny days and daily late afternoon/evening and night time showers to keep all nicely wet.

 

[windeguy]

They say a strong El Nino, which we are in now, will normally be bad for Atlantic Hurricanes, but then they say this year will be different. Who knows.

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181086972/el-nino-has-officially-begun-heres-what-that-means-for-the-u-s

 

[MikeFisher]

They say a strong El Nino, which we are in now, will normally be bad for Atlantic Hurricanes, but then they say this year will be different. Who knows.

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181086972/el-nino-has-officially-begun-heres-what-that-means-for-the-u-s

That's no News, this was from June 2023.

 

[MikeFisher]

There is no real storm in the make, but we will get wet on wide parts of DR for early weekend, Very Likely.
We have a Vaguada forming to influence most of DR Territory and the Disturbance moving from the SWern Caribbean Sea towards Haiti will push moisture over Western DR, too.
Both are steered by a Front reaching from the Central Bahamas Eastward, so some parts of DR will get good water amounts, the more W the more Water.
Our wettest time frame for the coming days/this weekend should be Friday Noon/Afternoon until Saturday Noon/Afternoon.
Again, no Stormy danger anywhere in the make, most part comes from the Vaguada, the Disturbance passing towards Haiti just extends/adds a bit more to the rainy scene.
The Vaguada will very likely bring danger to our flood-vulnerable areas, the amounts can be very hefty for a 24+hrs time period, which is here on our Island a very long raining period, specially when it pours down hard.
While I am the country boy doing the happy dance for the rain, i am pretty sure that many will not be that happy of campers for this weekend.
Saturday is my daughters 13th Birthday Party with BBQ, darn sure I have my preparations done to run everything under the roof of the Veranda as a back up plan.
Who ever lives in areas vulnerable for flooding, get ready or better plan on a couple days at home, don't drown your cars at the well known typical flood prone sections.
As for real storms, we should be done for this season, conditions with dry air, high wind shear and frontals blocking the usual directions for storms, are all up on full force and would not allow anything to become anything big, but at the same moment our wetter Caribbean late Fall/Winter Time has started.
This year there was/is no real Fall, weather wise, we went straight in just one step from full force Hurricane Summer Conditions to rainy Winter Conditions..
Despite any weather, I wish everyone a beautiful rests of the week and weekend.
Cheers.

 

[MariaRubia]

Oh how I love Mike's message when he says it's over for another year. Phew. And breathe. So lovely to think we have a few months of that lovely weather with sometimes a bit of a breeze, sometimes even having to put on a little cardigan to cover your arms at night. Bliss.

 

[Drperson]

There is no real storm in the make, but we will get wet on wide parts of DR for early weekend, Very Likely.
We have a Vaguada forming to influence most of DR Territory and the Disturbance moving from the SWern Caribbean Sea towards Haiti will push moisture over Western DR, too.
Both are steered by a Front reaching from the Central Bahamas Eastward, so some parts of DR will get good water amounts, the more W the more Water.
Our wettest time frame for the coming days/this weekend should be Friday Noon/Afternoon until Saturday Noon/Afternoon.
Again, no Stormy danger anywhere in the make, most part comes from the Vaguada, the Disturbance passing towards Haiti just extends/adds a bit more to the rainy scene.
The Vaguada will very likely bring danger to our flood-vulnerable areas, the amounts can be very hefty for a 24+hrs time period, which is here on our Island a very long raining period, specially when it pours down hard.
While I am the country boy doing the happy dance for the rain, i am pretty sure that many will not be that happy of campers for this weekend.
Saturday is my daughters 13th Birthday Party with BBQ, darn sure I have my preparations done to run everything under the roof of the Veranda as a back up plan.
Who ever lives in areas vulnerable for flooding, get ready or better plan on a couple days at home, don't drown your cars at the well known typical flood prone sections.
As for real storms, we should be done for this season, conditions with dry air, high wind shear and frontals blocking the usual directions for storms, are all up on full force and would not allow anything to become anything big, but at the same moment our wetter Caribbean late Fall/Winter Time has started.
This year there was/is no real Fall, weather wise, we went straight in just one step from full force Hurricane Summer Conditions to rainy Winter Conditions..
Despite any weather, I wish everyone a beautiful rests of the week and weekend.
Cheers.

Thanks so much again

 

[JD Jones]

Well, it's certainly raining here today.

 

[MikeFisher]

There is def some good downpours to be awaited for several areas of DR.
The Center of the TD is located SE of Jamaica,
but almost all water and thunderstorms are running far E of the Center.
They al move NE, so the Center should touch Western Jamaica, go over SE Cuba and the SE Bahamas.
The Water should flood Haiti more or less completely from SW to NE on the path.
In DR some areas will get hefty rainfalls with floodings, for most it will be a no show.

Have a fantastic weekend everyone.

 

[JD Jones]

So far this morning I've had maybe 8-9 downpours.

Just had another one right now where it rained cats and dogs for all of a minute, then completely stopped. Weird weather.

 

[RDKNIGHT]

So far this morning I've had maybe 8-9 downpours.

Just had another one right now where it rained cats and dogs for all of a minute, then completely stopped. Weird weather.

it's called tropical weather ...I love it

 

[JD Jones]

it's called tropical weather ...I love it

I'm not complaining. Since I wrote that I've had at least 5-6 more times where it came down in buckets for a minute or so and then stopped like somebody closed the faucet.
Except for now. Now it's drizzling. I'm gonna sleep well tonight.

 

[RDKNIGHT]

I'm not complaining. Since I wrote that I've had at least 5-6 more times where it came down in buckets for a minute or so and then stopped like somebody closed the faucet.
Except for now. Now it's drizzling. I'm gonna sleep well tonight.

I kinda of like it beats the rain days in nyc that last forever

 

[MikeFisher]

I spent today a good 5 hrs on the road in a piece, bringing daughter to school, went on to Higuey to pick up the bbq meats for tomorrow, then over the coral highway to PC Village to do biz at 2 banks there, from there over the tourist boulevard and then the Veron circumvalacion back up to Vallegina to pick up house dragon at her salon and on to school in La Otra Banda again to catch Baby Girl at school, from there back to Vallegina on the Finca.
The rain/shine report from that quiet wide sweep through the home area today:
before leaving the Finca, we had 2 sprincle times of a few minutes each,
Higuey and the way to there was bone dry,
leaving Higuey on the otha side to hit the Coral Highways, still mostly sunny skies and dry roads until I passed the Peaje before reaching the Big Tournabout for PC Village, there rain hit me so hard that I had to slow down to under 40KM/hr at times.
a few minutes later in PC Village(area of Scotiabank and Popular Bank) streets been wet but no rain coming down.
On my way from there towards Bavaro on the tourist Highway, bone dry streets.
Arriving in Veron on the backside/from the circumvalacion lil highway to pick up a girlfriend of my daughter to stay with us for a week, the roads in the Barrio been well wet but been told it was hard but not even 10 minutes lasting rain before I arrived.
The rest of the way up to La Otra Banda and then back down to Vallegina/Home, zero of rain.
That's Tropical/Caribbean Winter Weather, love it or hate it, it is nothing out of the ordinary for anybody living here specially for this time of the year.

 

[MikeFisher]

And as for our stormy season, which will not bring any more storms to our soil for this season 2023,
TD22 of the season is on the path and development as expected from the beginning.
Yes, it may be a TS tomorrow, but not anywhere near our soil.
Yes, as it is misformed and carrying it's rains far NE/E/SE of the Center, independend of developmet it will bring some strong rainfalls over some areas of DR.
No, we are not anywhere near any TS winds nor other high forces, we can take this weekend as a usual winter time(earlier than usual) Vaguada weekend for some areas, but the Hurricane danger time frame is gone and done.
Cattle stays out, we brought them today to the higher land Coral, so they will not bother with the BBQ Birthday tomorrow, lol.

 

[habi]

And as for our stormy season, which will not bring any more storms to our soil for this season 2023,
TD22 of the season is on the path and development as expected from the beginning.
Yes, it may be a TS tomorrow, but not anywhere near our soil.
Yes, as it is misformed and carrying it's rains far NE/E/SE of the Center, independend of developmet it will bring some strong rainfalls over some areas of DR.
No, we are not anywhere near any TS winds nor other high forces, we can take this weekend as a usual winter time(earlier than usual) Vaguada weekend for some areas, but the Hurricane danger time frame is gone and done.
Cattle stays out, we brought them today to the higher land Coral, so they will not bother with the BBQ Birthday tomorrow, lol.

All that what you say is good news but....
The "authority's" here at the north shore unfortunately think different.. 🙄

Puerto Plata
Viernes 17/11/2023
12:00 m.

Asunto: colocacion de Bandera Roja para las playas y Prohibición para Balnearios de Rio 🚩

-Se ha comenzado a deteriorar el Oleajes y a presentar corrientes marinas anormales en la costa atlantica y visto el informe de la oficina Nacional de Meteorologia en donde alerta sobre estas situaciones de anomalía marinas con olas de 4 a 6 pies en la Costa , se procede a la colocacion de Bandera Roja 🚩 en todas las playas del litoral costero de la Provincia de Puerto Plata.

-De igual manera a partir del día de hoy viernes 17/11/2023 y hasta el próximo Lunes 20/11/2023 si las condiciones de riesgos por lluvias se descontinuan, a partir de este momento se prohíbe el uso de todos los Balnearios de Ríos de la Provincia de Puerto Plata como medida preventiva por las posibilidades de lluvias moderadas a fuertes en las zonas alta de montaña y como lo indican los informes de la oficina nacional de meteorologia de que se pueden producir.

Como medidas preventivas para garantizar la vida se prohíbe el Baño en los distintos balnearios de playas y ríos de la Provincia de Puerto Plata.

Comité de Prevención Mitigacion y Repuesta de Puerto Plata

🤮🤮

 

[Jan]

Santo Domingo Este. The wind is really roaring. Rain coming down in torrents. Sounds like a Godzilla roaring out there.

 

[MikeFisher]

All that what you say is good news but....
The "authority's" here at the north shore unfortunately think different.. 🙄

Puerto Plata
Viernes 17/11/2023
12:00 m.

Asunto: colocacion de Bandera Roja para las playas y Prohibición para Balnearios de Rio 🚩

-Se ha comenzado a deteriorar el Oleajes y a presentar corrientes marinas anormales en la costa atlantica y visto el informe de la oficina Nacional de Meteorologia en donde alerta sobre estas situaciones de anomalía marinas con olas de 4 a 6 pies en la Costa , se procede a la colocacion de Bandera Roja 🚩 en todas las playas del litoral costero de la Provincia de Puerto Plata.

-De igual manera a partir del día de hoy viernes 17/11/2023 y hasta el próximo Lunes 20/11/2023 si las condiciones de riesgos por lluvias se descontinuan, a partir de este momento se prohíbe el uso de todos los Balnearios de Ríos de la Provincia de Puerto Plata como medida preventiva por las posibilidades de lluvias moderadas a fuertes en las zonas alta de montaña y como lo indican los informes de la oficina nacional de meteorologia de que se pueden producir.

Como medidas preventivas para garantizar la vida se prohíbe el Baño en los distintos balnearios de playas y ríos de la Provincia de Puerto Plata.

Comité de Prevención Mitigacion y Repuesta de Puerto Plata

🤮🤮

Such Alerts are happening quiet often during our winter months, specially when Vaguadas form up.
That Hurricane Season will not provide more big storms does not mean that the weather will be for some months nicely quiet and full sunny, the OPPOSITE, our Caribbean winter time is way more cloudy, rainy and wavier than the calm spring and summer times.
People always mistake Hurricane Season with bad weather time, but the opposite is the fact, the most beautiful weather for beach times we have during spring and summer, during Hurricane Season, with the exception of the few days per year when such storm really messes with our local weather.