2023 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Bret caught in flagranti, it is a blender of a storm.
This Sat shot from 8::00AM this morning show's that it is no well fueled/running power machine in the make.
The N and NW Quadrants are damaged, the windfield with TS Foce Winds is small and those winds do not reach out on all sides of the center.
This storm's heart/Surface Low is debil, pressure on high 1008mbar, it did not drop since it showed up as a TD.
Looks like the favorable conditions been not that favorable for Bret, it's NW shows the clear signs of windshear affecting it's shape and thats good, as the present just medium range weak windshear at that quadrant will stay on for today, so i don't await big power changes.
Late Wednesday til Thursday afternoon is it's less than 24hrs window to keep higher powers,it should be a Cat1 for a short time then,
but on arrival at the Central Lesser Antilles somewhere early Friday morning/before Friday Noon, I don't see the powers for a Hurricane.
Bret is a Blender and will not be more than a average TS and cover just a very small area with TS Force Winds when entering the Caribbean Sea.
It's closest approach to my Cattle should not be before Saturday Noon and nicely far down South, with no TS Force Winds reaching Hispañola´s SE.
NOW,
Aways keep in mind that tracking is very unreliable when done too far out, and we have min 96hrs to go before it would be on it´s closest point towards PC/SE DR, so for Now we should only rely on the Tracking until it's arrival over the Central Island Belt.
As mentioned often, a significant factor for the Heading of aa storm is the positioning, shape/form and strength of the Atlantic High
and that High is constantly changing/transforming, in all directions and hard to guess on as a forecast/future conditions.
We need an other 2 days before we can be more certain on that steering factor, means before Thursday we will not know very sure IF and/or When Bret will or will not do it's more northerly turn to wander NWwards.
So far I do not see real danger for Hispañola, I hope it bring's some really needed real rainfall up here to my hill in the lil Orange Valley.
We Watch and stay Alert, sadly it will bother my Saona Island Cruises for this weekend, but that's part of business, so far all is good.
Screenshot 2023-06-20 103050.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Bret did not get shape back or big power gains over night.
Pressure dropped only to 1001mb, that's not enough to gain hurricane wind force and anyways it is missing the needed real swing and shape.
It missed to grow up strong during the time frame with the best conditions.
It will be a TS over the Central Lesser Antilles tomorrow and tracking patterns let it move W-WWNW through the central caribbean sea,
that's nicely away from us and it will not be more than a medium power TS, chances are high that it will even go down to a TD while passing South of us.
So, Saona Island Tours canceled for Sat and Sund and the Cattle stays out and free.
Screenshot 2023-06-21 090414.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Nothing New, things out of our East run as expected.
Bret passed it's "most powerful zenit" and since this early morning it already show's power loss, pressure rised by 3mb back up to 999mb.
It will wander as a TS from E-W over the Central Lesser Antilles tonight and pass S of the DR tomorrow night,
nicely far South of our Island, no storm force winds will reach DR Soil during the pass.
Staring tomorrow we should get cloudier skies than usual, as such storm always pushes some stuff around in all directions far out.
If and how much of some rainfall that could bring, no idea, it can be different very isolated by areas, some may get some very good needed rain while others are just cloudy or even mostly sunny and stay dry.
Here at my place we had some nice rain last night, wasn't expected and very appreciated, this week's little by little coming down water did all together a nice watering for the grounds, not too much at once but it always kept the grounds wet this week so far.
East of Bret we have TD4,
which should become a TS tonight.
The same as Bret, it is nothing to worry about.
TD4 is a WNW runner and will miss the Caribbean on the NE.
On it's way it will encounter windshear and some dry air, so by the end of the weekend it will barely be a TS/back down to TD when coming to it's closest point to DR, which should not be anything really close anyways.
 

JD Jones

Moderator:North Coast,Santo Domingo,SW Coast,Covid
Jan 7, 2016
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I was really hoping for a few days of coolness.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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I was really hoping for a few days of coolness.
For this summer 2023 I do not await much coolness.
The patterns of the last years point to a trend that would promise us a few summers ahead of us with heavy heat with way too little water coming down.
I await that we will be very thankful that we have Ocean, Pool and Beer Fridges.
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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So far no news out there on our Eastern Front.
Bret is approaching the Central Islands of the lesser Antilles and keeps loosing powers constantly little by little.
tomorrow night it will be South of ourself, but nice far out, closer to the south american north shores than to DR.
TD4 should manage to become it's name as a TS, but nothing mayor, it will stay a weak one and not last long before the little powers back down again.
It will miss the Caribbean Island on the NE and should never come close to DR.

Have a great weekend everyone
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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The pass over the Island Belt went as awaited.
Bret now running the Caribben Sea E-W into 20-30Knots Windshear,
so it sure will not rise any powers, it will not become any threat for DR at no time.
TS Cindy on the awaited Tracking to miss the Islands on their NE.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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As seen on the Noon Sat Shot from today, Bret is spread out/fleddered to nothing.
Sure it still sends out TS Force Winds for a lil while, but this is a dying system.
No changes on TS Cindy.
All clear for Hispañola, except the positive possibilities to get some far out scattered clouds and maybe even some rain at some areas.
Here on the Ranch the last days(without the influence of Bret) brought several times some nice unexpected water, grounds are actually perfectly wet without anything to be washed away, a perfect watering without doing anything myself for it.
If the weekend brings some of the same from Bret, then it will have been a perfect week for Orange Valley/PC, lol.
That leaves plenty of time to keep the beer fridges stocked with good german brew,
looks like a Perfect Weekend ahead to enjoy
 
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Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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From Storm Carib Some interesting info "I saw this on Brian McNoldy's blog though, that I thought was interesting: "Bret and Cindy usher in a historic day for the tropical Atlantic. Named storms forming in June are not that uncommon -- in the past three decades there have been thirty of them. But of those thirty, only two formed in the deep tropics east of the Caribbean (Bret 2017 and Bonnie 2022). Having two simultaneous named storms in June is exceptionally rare -- it's happened just once before in 1968 (Brenda and Candy). Now in 2023, not only are there two named storms during June in the Atlantic, they're active simultaneously and both formed from African easterly waves east of the Caribbean. This unprecedented event is undoubtedly enabled by the record-breaking ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic and the related relative dearth of dry Saharan air plumes.

Read more on his excellent blog. Hopefully the developing El Nino will put a damper on hurricane activity later in the season! Stay safe! -Gert"
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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From Storm Carib Some interesting info "I saw this on Brian McNoldy's blog though, that I thought was interesting: "Bret and Cindy usher in a historic day for the tropical Atlantic. Named storms forming in June are not that uncommon -- in the past three decades there have been thirty of them. But of those thirty, only two formed in the deep tropics east of the Caribbean (Bret 2017 and Bonnie 2022). Having two simultaneous named storms in June is exceptionally rare -- it's happened just once before in 1968 (Brenda and Candy). Now in 2023, not only are there two named storms during June in the Atlantic, they're active simultaneously and both formed from African easterly waves east of the Caribbean. This unprecedented event is undoubtedly enabled by the record-breaking ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic and the related relative dearth of dry Saharan air plumes.

Read more on his excellent blog. Hopefully the developing El Nino will put a damper on hurricane activity later in the season! Stay safe! -Gert"
Exactly, as we said here from the beginning.
SST been this season from the beginning way over the average of the former decade,
Windshear been for the first couple weeks on the low to the now existing side,
Saharan Air Layer been and still is very thin/not much bothering for storm development.
The Atlantic High started super weak and been located on a position where "Bret" popping up just a few days earlier would have had a direct run onto the SE of DR from the SE in, you could have named that a worst case scenario, yes.
but things do not always(very happy for that one) come out as a worst case scenario,
as a matter of fact Bret is a no show wandering as a barely worth to be named a storm the far southern caribbean sea
and Cindy is on her for us luckily so often "Pass us on our NE" way, an other no show.
Under the line,
it never mattered if a season is super active and ready or low key promised,
as it takes just ONE System, even a simple TS, at the right moment at the certain position, to run havoc with a country,
while a dozen of big boys make the big news but do finally not touch our beautiful Island.
It is at the end the very SAME as Always,
we are in season, we watch what's up out there on the Eastern Front, we are prepared for super hard times to come
and if going as usual, we are super happy that we prepared for Nothing, which is the Perfect Case Scenario to have.
We never know whats popping up on the next forecast, but as we are down here since such a long time,
what ever it is, it will not bother our enjoyment of life here in the tropics,
as we all know that some slight risks are included in the package and after all,
IT IS TOTALLY WORTH IT.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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After 4 weeks of an empty map, our Highway has a "Dot" to show, I love such lazy season without any actions other than receiving the always needed weekly rainfalls for animals, grass and plantations on the Ranch.
So far no danger in sight and it will take some days before any tendency for development could be estimated,
as now we have to observe how the Saharan Air Layer and the Windshear over the Highway shift/move/grow/decrease.
For today and tomorrow the Tropical Wave with a surface Low Centered South of the Cape Verde Islands, will ride under a fairly thick Saharan Sand Roof, so nothing will happen out there for several days.
Positioned on the 10th-N the wave will bring the System straight Westward for almost a week.
So for the reminder of this week we will observe dry air and windshear, to figure out how much development potential is riding out there, IF there is any,
then we can start to guess about next week's Tropical Highway Outlook.

Screenshot 2023-07-19 092041.png
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Nothing to worry about anywhere near our beautiful Island.
AL95 could become a TD after the weekend, but that's it by the actual conditions.
It is running in a very dry environment from surface up to the higher atmosphere levels, so there's no moisture to be collected.
Now it is running half way between western Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
It is running a southern lane and is forced to stay down there, due the same 2 High Pressure ridges which have Tropical Storm Don trapped since many days mid Northern Atlantic. The Eastern High keeps Don from moving on it's original NE Course he should run NW now til the end) and the same Ridge prohibids that AL95 could move northwards.
The western High is since this afternoon on the move out, which allowed TS Don to take it's actual NWern tracking. It has placed a 1016mb ridge right north of the Greater Antilles, that actual positioning would prohibid that any storm in the Caribbean Sea could move Northwards towards PR, Hispañola or Cuba.
By the actual outlook on conditions and expected shifting of those, AL95 will not become any concern, ever.
So it is time for an other great weeeeekend for everyone.

Cheers
 
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keepcoming

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Mike, does El Nino (or supposed El Nino) help/worsen conditions for here in DR. And please everyone I am just asking a question which pertains to the DR.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Mike, does El Nino (or supposed El Nino) help/worsen conditions for here in DR. And please everyone I am just asking a question which pertains to the DR.
In short words, as it was explained somewhere more at the beginning of this topic:
A strong El Niño would have for the DR the positive effect of higher wind shear, which is a bothering factor to storm development.
The big negative effect is a dryer environment due El Niño, strong El Niño events are very likely producing drought conditions during our caribbean summers, which are under the line more dangerous and also way more costly than a hurricane hit.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Nothing new and nothing to worry about,
just an up date as the system is closing in to the Lesser Antilles, located 850mls E of the Windward Islands now.
Storm development is very unlikely, even that it could become a TD for a short time shortly before reaching the Windwards.
The mid altitudes of the Atmosphere surrounding it and on it's path are dry, so there is no fuel to kick off a real storm.
The Saharan Dry Air is little in the region, but sufficient to keep such small thing down in addition of some wind shear kicking in on the final 500 miles towards the Windward Islands.
Both, windshear and Saharan Air, are not strong, but enough to bother this small system.
For mid next week the wind shear over the Central Caribbean Sea towards the Eastern Caribbean Sea looks strong by it's actual tendency,
so if this one lives long enough to enter the Caribbean, it will be quickly gone then from there on.
As for directions, by the actual location and tendency of the High Pressure Area North, it should catch a more WNWwards Heading starting when on the last 500 miles towards the Windwards.
Looks all fine out there for fantastic weekend weather

Enjoy

Here a shot from this morning, showing the dry mid altitudes of the Atmosphere.
Screenshot 2023-07-23 100738.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Tuesday Update of this torching hot summer.
AL95 is over the Windward Islands, nothing else than a few areas of rain.
It did not manage to get a number and entering the Caribbean Sea now conditions get worse for it, so it is gone.
I could need some, a whole night/day of real rainfall would be appreciated up here at Vallejina,
but it doesn't look like much coming up my way.
For tonight there's a chance to catch some up here and the same for tomorrow, but there's no real hope for some real rainfall.
We look all clear so far on all storm fronts, nothing in the make at this moment.
So while waiting that my carpenter arrives to build some shelfs and closets in a new Almazen/Storage Room Building we built up last week,
I will continue to run the pump to water the animal food plants around the Finca.
Getting ready to finish everything on time before Sunday/Fathers Day BBQ Day up here.
DR Campo Vaquero Life is goood.

Cheers
 
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